Redefine the way you bet live with Rithmm AI Caddie. Dive into a new era of live betting, where every hole and every golfer is an opportunity, thanks to our AI’s 1,000 simulations per hole. Discover a smarter path to live betting success. Get a FREE 7-Day Trial today!
This week at Valhalla Golf Club, we have no shortage of intriguing storylines as we prepare for the second major of the 2024 season, the 106th PGA Championship.
The top of the betting board features our best storylines. World No. 1 Scottie Scheffler, Rory McIlroy, and Brooks Koepka are each coming off victories in their most recent starts heading into this week. Scheffler’s won four of his past five starts and is aiming for his second consecutive major after winning another Green Jacket last month. He enters as the overwhelming favorite, having been away from the game for a couple of weeks after winning the RBC Heritage and welcoming his newborn son to the world last week. McIlroy not only won his second straight event at Quail Hollow last week, but he also dominated, gaining 19.9 strokes on the field. He drove the ball about as well as you can, and that’ll play well again this week at Valhalla, the home of his last major win back in 2014. Koepka, who won the most recent LIV event in Singapore, showed us again last year that he has a different gear during a major, and he’s built for these next two, with five combined PGA/U.S. Open titles since 2017.
Valhalla Golf Club will play as a stretching par 71, measuring out to roughly 7,600 yards from the tips. The new Zoysia grass fairways are an interesting element this week. The Louisville area has seen a good deal of rain heading into the start of this event, but the fairways should play fast once we get closer to the weekend. That brings more of the thick Kentucky bluegrass rough into play because golfers can’t afford to hang back and take less than driver to ensure that they find the fairways due to the length of this track.
For more course details, check out Ron’s course preview. It’s the best in the business, bar none. Here’s an important tidbit about Valhalla:
While players have some room off the tee with fairways averaging around 30 yards wide, the club removed all the rough between the fairways and the bunkers near the landing areas, allowing balls to bound unimpeded into the sand traps. Combined with the penal 4″ rough, this will place an even greater emphasis on finding fairways and controlling run-out off the tee. While accuracy off the tee is vital, Valhalla is a massive course ranking as the fifth-longest track played on Tour since 2016. In 2014, 10 of the top 15 on the leaderboard also ranked inside the top 15 in driving distance for the week. On the tee box, Valhalla provides clearly defined targets and rewards powerful driving. Total drivers who can combine distance with accuracy will have a huge advantage this week.
Many of the green complexes at Valhalla are elevated so that wayward iron shots will be repelled away from the green even more. The greens also contain subtle ridges that can turn quality approaches into 30-foot putts depending on the slope in the landing area.
The thick rough makes approach play very unpredictable. The Louisville area has seen a much warmer spring this year, which has placed the course several weeks ahead of its normal growth patterns. This has resulted in even thicker rough than expected and further elevates the premium on both finding fairways and shot control.
Valhalla is also known for its extremely fast greens, which start at 13 on the stimpmeter and play closer to 14 on the weekend.
As is standard in major tournaments, both scrambling and bogey avoidance is crucial for success. These green complexes place a premium on creative shotmaking and skillful chipping. The bluegrass rough around the greens is very lush and will provide a challenge, especially if chipping from below the hole.
Remember to check out the Rabbit Hole, our customizable stat database that can help you pair down your player pool each week.
Please take advantage of the Discord feature and community. It’s the best way to get up-to-the-minute lines and advice, and if you need help getting started, please reach out. That’s where my full card will be posted, along with any live in-tournament bets.
My top 5 key stats this week:
- SG: Total (Last 3 years, difficult scoring conditions, long courses, strong field)
- SG: BS (driver heavy, long courses, difficult scoring conditions)
- Driving distance + Distance from the edge of the fairway (hybrid total driving)
- SG: Total (Last 5 years at PGA Championships and U.S. Opens)
- SG: Approach (Average and Long rough)
Noonan’s PGA Championship Outright Picks
Scottie Scheffler
The more I think about who I want to add to my betting card, the more I picture myself on Saturday afternoon wishing that I saved that money and didn’t dilute my position on the best golfer in the world. Full transparency: I have a future on Scheffler to win this week at a laughable price that you, the reader, don’t have access to right now. So I don’t want to be disingenuous and advise you to bet on the new baby daddy at his current +450 price, but water gun to the head, I think he wins again.
His break before this week’s event wasn’t unusually long or drastically different from a standard in-season break between starts. I touched on the storylines at the top, with Rory and Brooks trending upward, but I think it’s worth noting that Scottie wasn’t in the field for their recent triumphs. We can’t say the same about Scottie’s.
Ludvig Aberg
We’re seeing a bit of a drift on Ludvig Aberg’s price after he withdrew from last week’s Wells Fargo signature event, citing a knee injury that he was nursing over the past few weeks. I’m not concerned about it as the week approaches, but I understand why some would be hesitant to click on him if there are any questions at all, given the opportunity cost and choices around him.
Aberg’s finished inside the top 25 in each of his past eight starts, five of which were T9 or better, including two solo second-place finishes at Pebble Beach and Augusta. Aberg’s one of the best ball-strikers in the world and ranks third in this week’s field in SG: BS over the past six months. His driver is a weapon. He’s long and straight, ranking third in total driving, and his short game continues to improve. I bet lookahead prices of 28/1 and 30/1 during his weekend run at the Masters, but I’d still play him now at 20/1 if you missed the futures price.
- To Win: 20/1 FanDuel
- Top 20: -110 DraftKings
Max Homa
This is another future play that I made last fall at 45/1, but I’d still play Max Homa at his current number. After back-to-back T10 finishes in Majors, including a T3 at Augusta, I hope we can finally put the ‘Homa can’t do it’ narrative to bed. His career wins have come on some of the Tour’s longest and toughest tracks, and he continues to show out against the world’s strongest fields.
Homa’s best finishes this season have come on tracks that closely resemble what’s required at Valhalla. Long, driver-heavy courses with difficult scoring conditions. A T8 last week at Quail Hollow fits that bill, as does his T8 at Bay Hill and T16 and T13 at Riviera and Torrey Pines, which are venues that he’s won at multiple times. Max is one of the best long-iron players in the world, and that will come in handy this week.
- To Win: 35/1 DraftKings
- Top 20: +150 BetRivers
Wyndham Clark
We’re getting a bit of a discount on Wyndham Clark because he let us down last week at Quail Hollow, but it’s important to step back and think about the year that Clark’s had and how well this course fits his game. He also has three T3 or better finishes in his past six starts, and each of those (API, PLAYERS, and RBC Heritage) were Signature Events against strong fields.
As good as last year was for Clark, his 2024 is statistically better in every way. He is up year-over-year in all of the strokes-gained metrics, his distance is second to none, and he’d have multiple 2024 wins if not for Scottie Scheffler.
Viktor Hovland
It’s been a disappointing season for Viktor Hovland, who has yet to finish inside the top 10, with just one top-20 finish in seven starts. I’m a sucker for Hovland, who’s still been an excellent ball striker this season despite his woes on and around the greens.
Hovland ranked eighth in SG: BS last week at Wells Fargo and will benefit from the thick rough around the greens at Valhalla, which is much easier than chipping and scrambling from shaved short-grass runoffs. Looking at success at previous PGA Championships and U.S. Open stops, along with overall success on driver-heavy layouts with difficult scoring conditions, it’s hard not to think Viktor Hovland’s game is well-suited for Valhalla.
Will Zalatoris
I don’t know what to make of Will Zalatoris’s current odds. I played him at 50/1 last weekend and have taken more as his number has drifted closer to 100/1 as the odds board has shifted early in the week.
This is one of the best players in the world who’s historically been at his best on the toughest tracks on Tour.