2024 John Deere Classic Betting Card Picks and Preview

It’s time to throw on a green mesh hat, crack open a few silver bullets, and turn on some country music to prepare for this week’s John Deere Classic. It’s a track that’s seen a wide array of skill sets take home the title over the years, but fairways and birdies are always the main ingredients. TPC Deere Run gets a bad wrap because the field often resembles a swing season event, but the course is more interesting than some of the other so-called birdie fests out there.

The John Deere Classic’s place on the calendar has shifted a bit after the Scottish Open became a co-sanctioned PGA Tour/DP World Tour event the week prior to The Open Championship. It’s impacted the field strength again, but I’ll take TPC Deere Run over Detroit Golf Club and TPC Twin Cities all day.

Located on the Illinois side of the Illinois/Iowa border along the Mississippi River, TPC Deere Run features wide sloping fairways, receptive bentgrass greens, and numerous elevation changes and doglegs. It is very scoreable for players who excel at strategically managing their way around the course instead of trying to overpower it. Winners have eclipsed the 18-under mark in each of the last 14 tournaments, so strong recent results from the low-scoring Travelers and Rocket Mortgage are a good place to start when looking at the betting board this week.

For more course details, check out Ron’s course preview. It’s the best in the business, but there are none. Here’s an important tidbit about TPC Deere Run:

PC Deere Run is a public par-71 course that measures 7,289 yards. The course has three par-5s, four par-3s, and 11 par-4s. The par-3s are longer and tougher to score on. Eight of the par-4s are under 445 yards. All three of the par-5s are in the 550-600-yard range and should be reachable in two shots. The Birdie or Better rate is almost 44% on just those three holes. This is one of the reasons that shorter hitters definitely enjoy the course.

Even with generous and forgiving fairways that average over 36 yards wide, TPC Deere Run is typically not a course that bombers can overpower. It is tree-lined but not tight. Laying up and avoiding dangerous areas is the best strategy for numerous holes. Straying from fairways is costly as the course is protected by the thick 4″ penal rough, strategic fairway bunkering, and creative mounding that causes uneven lies. With numerous doglegs, the ability to shape the ball off the tee is advantageous.

Demonstrating the importance of finding the short grass off the tee, approach shots from the fairway have an average proximity to the hole of 29.5 feet, while approach shots from the rough average of 46.7 feet. This “Rough Penalty” margin of 17.8% is one of the largest on Tour.

With such a high GIR% and most approaches being wedges into soft greens, this does turn into a putting contest. Consistently making 5-15 foot putts is paramount this week.

Remember to check out the Rabbit Hole, our customizable stat database that can help you pair down your player pool each week.

Please take advantage of the Discord feature and community. It’s the best way to get up-to-the-minute lines and advice, and if you need help getting started, please reach out. My full card and any live in-tournament bets will be posted here.

My top 5 key stats this week:

  • SG: Total (Scoring Conditions: Very Easy and Easy, Last 2 Years)
  • SG: APP
  • Distance From The Edge Of The Fairway/Driving Accuracy
  • Birdie or Better Rate (BOB%)
  • SG: P (Bentgrass)

Noonan’s John Deere Classic Betting Picks

I’m not sure what to do with this week’s betting board. I’m struggling to field-adjust these prices because a lot of the golfers I like are significantly shorter than I’m willing to pay, and I don’t believe the gap between them and some of the longer shots is as wide as the odds board tells us it is. So, with that said, I’m going to fire at a few finishing position bets up top but save my outright bets for down-the-board plays.

Neal Shipley

Let’s get the important stuff out of the way first. Moving forward, we’re going with Horsey Sauce as Shipley’s nickname. It’s quite simple. Shipley uses an Arby’s curly fries head cover because he understands that Arby’s curly fries are electric. He likely also understands that dipping said curly fries into Horsey Sauce is the optimal way to go since it’s an elite condiment option far superior to the other options on the menu. Shipley also attended Ohio State University, and the Buckeyes play their home games in the Horseshoe. And since he’s about to notch his first PGA Tour victory this week on a former Arabian horse farm, it all makes too much sense.

Alphas Only

The low Am at both the Masters and the U.S. Open has recently turned pro and is carrying that strong recent form into his first few starts. Horsey Sauce finished T20 last week in Detroit but ranked third in SG: APP and sixth in SG: T2G for the week. The putter let him down a bit, but I love to see ball-striking numbers like this, even in a limited sample. He’s in the middle of the pack in overall birdie or better%, but he ranks second in this week’s field in BoB% from the fairway. I think he’s gained an incredible amount of confidence over the past few months, and in a game as fragile as this one, that goes a long way.

Michael Thorbjornsen

I’m going back to the well on the top elite-Am-who-recently-turned-pro, Michael Thorbjornsen. He got off to a decent start last week in Detroit but struggled in Friday’s second round before missing the cut on the number. He’s the same price as last week, but in a weaker field, so I’m willing to play the long game here and double down.

This is a bet on talent and one I’ll continue to make until he eventually breaks through.

Patton Kizzire

More important stuff at the top. I googled Patton Kizzire to figure out if there’s been something going on with him that I hadn’t heard about, and found out that his first name is actually Maxie and not Patton. I’m not sure which way I’d go either, but I’d likely be looking to ditch Maxie as well, so I get it.

Kizzire has really struggled over the past few years, but he seems to have figured something out. He’s coming off of a T20 in Detroit and finished T28 or better in five of his past six starts. He ranks first in my SG: APP model this week, ranking inside the top five in all three time frame ranges used. He can make birdies in bunches, too, and just needs to avoid the blow-up holes that have plagued his career.

Davis Thompson

Price adjusted, Davis Thompson is my favorite top-of-the-board look this week, but the price is too short, especially after Patrick Cantlay’s Monday morning withdrawal. He’s a bit too far down the list in terms of driving accuracy and bentgrass putting splits for my liking, but he ranks well in overall recent form and approach play. He’s finished in the top 10 in three of his past six starts, and I expect him to be in contention again this week. I’ll back him to T20 at +140.

J.T. Poston

The 2022 John Deere Classic winner tops my most important sub-model this week, ranking tops in this week’s field in SG: Total in easy and very easy scoring conditions. He’s the anti-Davis Thompson in a sense because he’s an elite putter, especially on bentgrass greens, and he’ll continuously put himself in position off the tee due to his accuracy.

Ryo Hisatsune

2024 has been an impressive yet under-the-radar PGA Tour debut for the 21-year-old Japanese prospect. Consistency has been lacking, but he’s finished T20 or better in six of his 19 starts, including a T18 finish at Valhalla back in May. Hisatsune caught my attention by finishing 5th in my model this week with no real alarming performances in any metric and thriving on courses with easy scoring conditions.

Brendon Todd

I backed Brendon Todd here last year, and he nearly got home, finishing T2. I almost did it again this week, but I’ll opt for the top 40 price instead. Todd lacks distance off the tee to compete at most PGA Tour stops, but when accuracy off the tee and running hot with the putter is what the test calls for, Todd is a viable option.

My Rabbit Hole Top 10 for the John Deere Classic