Coming off the heels of Nick Taylor’s masterful performance at the WM Phoenix Open, the Tour heads back to California for the Genesis Invitational and the final event of the West Coast Swing. Completed in 1926 inside the Santa Monica Mountain Canyon just outside of Los Angeles, Riviera Country Club remains one of America’s iconic golf courses.
Not only is it iconic, but Riviera is always in the conversation among the best-designed courses in the country. Even as it approaches its 100-year birthday, most experts believe that it lacks any weak holes. While the scope and size of the course don’t stand out, it forces players to execute and commit to every shot in their bag. It’s a challenging layout that forces golfers to make strategic decisions. Designed and built in 1926 by George C. Thomas, Jr., it opened as the Los Angeles Athletic Club Golf Course and has been a fixture on the PGA Tour since 1973. The routing is near-perfect as Thomas utilized all the available natural features of the terrain in creating his masterpiece.
Riviera features tight driving corridors, erratic Kikuyu rough, and speedy greens with subtle undulations. It tests all aspects of a golfer’s game and requires players to hit specific areas on both fairways and greens to maximize their scoring opportunities. Being out of position creates extreme pressure to save par because the course is relentless. Shot-makers who can position themselves off the tee, who can shape the ball in both directions and scramble for par around these treacherous greens will have the most success.
Two of the greatest golfers of all time, Jack Nicklaus and Tiger Woods, never managed to win at Riviera. It has the universal admiration of Tour pros because it’s tough but fair. Speaking on the challenge that the course presents, Patrick Cantlay summed it up best. “The greens aren’t overly firm and it’s not crazy long. The golf course always defends itself. There’s no tricks. There’s no water on the whole golf course. There’s no real goofiness. I just think, all in all, it’s just the best test that we play.”
f684b2f3d4218ee06dad551b3bb2074bThe Field
As a “Signature” event, 50 of the top 60 players in the world will be in attendance for the Genesis Invitational. The only eligible golfers choosing not to play are Justin Rose and Matthieu Pavon. As anticipated, golf’s biggest draw, Tiger Woods, will make his return to action this week. Woods, the tournament host who gifted himself a sponsor exemption, will be making his first official PGA Tour start since the 2023 Masters. The 82-time PGA TOUR winner will headline a stacked field competing for 700 FedExCup points and a $20 million purse.
With the field capped at a potential 80 players, only 70 actually qualified through the assortment of categories as set forth by the Tour. This includes the top 50 in last season’s FedExCup standings, the Aon Next 10 (which for this event is Nos. 51-60 in the final FedExCup Fall standings) and the Aon Swing 5 (the top points earners not already exempt from the previous four Full-Field events). There are also five sponsor exemptions into the field, Adam Scott, Gary Woodland, Will Zalatoris, Chase Johnson (Charlie Sifford Memorial Exemption) and the aforementioned, Woods.
The Genesis is one of four “Signature” events that will maintain a 36-hole cut which includes the top-50 and ties and also every player within 10 strokes of the 36-hole lead.
Past Winners/Odds
Betting Strategy
After six straight longshot winners to start the year, I don’t even know what to do with outright winner bets at the moment!
Chris Kirk: 200-1
Grayson Murray: 400-1
Nick Dunlap: 300-1
Matthieu Pavon: 130-1
Wyndham Clark: 100-1
Nick Taylor: 175-1
That being said, Riviera has typically produced an elite winner in seven of the past eight years. The trends for this course would definitely back up that notion. And we have another field loaded with the best players on Tour. For these reasons, including the trends below, my three main outrights for the week are Viktor Hovland, Patrick Cantlay and Max Homa.
My betting selection this week has been focused on three key metrics: SG: Approach, SG: ARG/Scrambling and past SG on other difficult scoring courses. With positive short-game play around these tough green complexes being so vital this week, I am targeting players who have the all-around game to survive the many difficult holes, and who, at the same time, have shown they can excel on the par 5s. Each of Hovland, Homa and Cantlay are examples of this type of player. Each are among the best all-around players in the world, including with their long-irons.
Taking a look at recent winners like Jon Rahm, Joaquin Niemann, Adam Scott, Bubba Watson, and Dustin Johnson shows that distance plays here. Another argument to favor distance over accuracy is that if most golfers are missing the fairway and playing their approach shots out of the rough, you want the players hitting higher lofted clubs like wedges and short irons into these “bouncy” greens to keep the ball closer to the pins. Along with distance, Good Drive % is another important stat to use this week in determining which players commonly hit greens out of the rough.
Thanks to the “Rabbit Hole”, one of the unique rankings in the model this week is how players have performed on other similar courses that have both a strong field and difficult scoring conditions. I think that is a very important piece of data this week because it combines those two factors together. And let’s face it, there are only a handful of players that raise their game in these types of events. As you can imagine, most players perform below their baseline when things get tougher against better competition.
Finally, let me share one key piece of information that has helped me have success on my finish position bets. It’s very basic, but I have been analyzing past player course history and considering a player’s typical past finish position. This week, for example, Adam Scott has played Riviera every year since 2016. He has finished inside the top 11 in five of his last eight starts. So I feel very comfortable taking him for a Top 20 bet at plus money (+100). Another example of using course history to your advantage (especially on a course where it’s the third-most predictive on Tour) is taking Max Homa to finish in the Top 10 at +190. In his last four trips to Riviera, Homa has finished 2nd, 10th, 1st, and 5th.
Most Important Stats For Success at the Genesis Invitational
*In order of importance
- SG: APP
- SG: ARG
- Driving Distance
- Short Game (ARG + Putting) on Poa
- Bogey Avoidance
- Good Drive %
- Course History at Riviera CC
- Par 4 Scoring on Difficult Courses
- Proximity 150-200 yds
- Par 5 Scoring
Weather Forecast – Pacific Palisades, California
Genesis Invitational – Final Model
In each preview article and on Discord, I present my final model, which gives a detailed player ranking of the most important stats and splits for the week. My modeling is built around the PGA’s Strokes Gained data, which is divided into SG: Off the Tee (OTT), SG: Approach (APP), SG: Around the Green (ARG), and SG: Putting (P). Learn more about Strokes Gained and why it can be so useful in analyzing the past and predicting future performance. Many of these specific metrics and conditions can be found in “The Rabbit Hole“, with my final model exclusively published here and in the Discord for subscribers.
Outright Betting Selections
For the most up-to-date picks, check out my Twitter and subscribe to our Discord at BetspertsGolf.com.
*Lines accurate at the time of publication.
Viktor Hovland +1600
While 2024 has been somewhat of a struggle thus far for Hovland, I’ve been waiting to play him here at Riviera. He took a week off at the Phoenix Open (where he was scheduled to play) so that he could work on his game. I think he will come into this event refreshed and ready to attack this course with the elite skill set that he possesses. The improvements he made with his short game are not a mirage. Let’s not forget he has three wins in the last eight months and was approaching world No. 1 status at the end of last season after winning the Tour Championship.
(1.2u) BetMGM
Max Homa +2000
With this being the last event in his beloved home state of California, combined with his past history here at Riviera, I simply can’t quit Homa. His last four trips here include finishes of 2nd, 10th, 1st, and 5th. His ball-striking has been subpar the last two events, but his approach game has been stellar here. And he is the third best putter in the entire field on these types of difficult greens and on Poa grass.
(1.1u) BetMGM
Patrick Cantlay +2000 (currently +1800)
Cantlay is a very similar story to Homa. He has struggled ball-striking in his last three events on courses he usually dominates at. He loves playing in California and is an expert on Poa greens. It may be blind hope, but I’m trusting in his win equity and all-around skills at what I think is a value price.
(0.48u) BetMGM
Will Zalatoris +5500 (currently +6000)
With placing such a high weight on past performance on other difficult scoring courses, my models consistently have Zalatoris in the upper tier at a course such as Riviera. He’s coming off a 13th-place finish at another similar course in Torrey Pines where there were numerous glimpses of the Zalatoris of old. He was fourth here last year and gained over seven strokes ball-striking.
(0.43u) FanDuel
Finishing Position Picks
Top 10 – all FanDuel
- Rory McIlroy +110 (1u)
- Viktor Hovland +150 (1u)
- Max Homa +190 (1u)
Top 20
- Patrick Cantlay -125 (1u) – FanDuel
- Adam Scott +100 (1.2u) – BetRivers
- Cam Young +120 (1u) – DraftKings
- Will Zalatoris +165 (1u) – DraftKings
Top 30 – all BetRivers
- Hideki Matsuyama +100 (1u) – DraftKings
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Photo by Sam Greenwood/Getty Images