2024 Cognizant Classic – Betting Preview

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The PGA Tour journeys north to Florida for the newly-named “Cognizant Classic in the Palm Beaches” and the start of the Florida Swing. Previously known as the Honda Classic, the tournament will be hosted once again by the Champion course at PGA National in Palm Beach Gardens, Florida. Not only does it have a new name but the layout has been changed from a par-70 to a par-71 course with the 10th hole now playing as a par 5 instead of a par 4.

PGA National is not an easy introduction to the Florida Swing as it has annually ranked as one of the most difficult courses on Tour, averaging 1.14 strokes over par the last five years. The average winning score over the past 13 years has been 10-under par. It has been the toughest non-major course on the PGA Tour in six of the past 10 seasons. With fewer trees than other parkland courses and only seven miles off the Atlantic coast, PGA National is exposed to gusty conditions as winds often affect this event and make scoring that much more difficult. Add in narrow fairways, firm greens, and water everywhere you turn and it is one of the toughest tee-to-green tests on the Tour.

The winner has either been a favorite or a longshot in 12 of the past 14 years. Part of the reason for the disparity in winners is that this tournament is one of the most volatile events on the Tour. Famous for its 15 holes with water danger. PGA National will favor golfers with a balance of short game and ball-striking who can avoid penalty areas, scramble for pars, and manage any windy conditions. It plays similarly to a major tournament and favors those players who demonstrate patience. As past champion, Keith Mitchell remarked, “You’ve got to stay so patient. A lot of times par is a good score. I don’t think you can play aggressively out here. If you do, I think it will eat you because this golf course is tough.”

Success here will also depend highly upon the player’s ability to navigate the closing stretch of intimidating holes, which is famously known as the “Bear Trap”. The 15th and 17th holes are long par-3s over water, while the 16th is a forced layup to another approach shot over water.

The Field

This year’s tournament provides the last opportunity for players to qualify for next week’s Signature event, the Arnold Palmer Invitational. Even though this event has not drawn the deepest of fields in the past, we have seen numerous high-profile winners including Sungjae Im, Justin Thomas, Rickie Fowler, Adam Scott, Russell Henley, and Rory McIlroy. This year, however, one of the deepest fields in recent memory will assemble on the west Florida coast.

The field for this year’s Honda Classic is set at 144 golfers and includes 19 of the top 50 players in the Official World Golf Ranking. 2012 champion and world No. 2, McIlroy headlines the field along with Matt Fitzpatrick, Tom Kim, Cameron Young, Sepp Straka, Henley, Fowler, Im, last year’s runner-up Eric Cole, and last year’s champion, Chris Kirk.

Past Winners/Odds

Betting Strategy

This is a very tricky week from a betting standpoint. With “water mines” everywhere on the course, all it takes is a couple of poor shots to completely derail a round. Consistent ball-strikers with mid-to-long irons who are not erratic off the tee are paramount in building any lineup or betting card this week. Furthermore, I will be focusing on players who have a strong record of avoiding, not just bogeys, but double bogeys as well. My model has a strong focus for many of the metrics on past performance at other difficult courses.

With trouble lurking everywhere, players need to be in control of their swing heading into this event. I will also target players who are in good form with good ball-striking results over the past few weeks. With some of the toughest par 4s on Tour, I also targeted “Par 4 Scoring” on courses with other difficult par 4s along with Strokes Gained on Florida courses since 2019. With so many players missing greens, scrambling and putting on these grainy Bermuda surfaces will also be vitally important.

Finally, in the past, we have seen a mix of both favorites and deep longshots raise the trophy on Sunday. Golf is already perhaps the most volatile sport to begin with. Add in the treacherous combination of wind and water – and we could see carnage this week. Nobody should be surprised if multiple favorites miss the cut and a player longer than 100-1 wins this event. Honestly, it’s probably a good week to lighten the betting card up a bit because anything can happen.

Most Important Stats For Success at PGA National

*In order of importance

SG: APP
Bogey/Double Bogey Avoidance
Scrambling
SG: Tough Scoring Courses
Par 4 Scoring
Course History: PGA National/comp courses
Proximity 125-200 yds
SG: Putting (Bermuda)
SG: OTT
3-Putt Avoidance

Cognizant Classic – Final Model

In each preview article and on Discord, I present my final model, which gives a detailed player ranking of the most important stats and splits for the week. My modeling is built around the PGA’s Strokes Gained data, which is divided into SG: Off the Tee (OTT), SG: Approach (APP), SG: Around the Green (ARG), and SG: Putting (P). Learn more about Strokes Gained and why it can be so useful in analyzing the past and predicting future performance. Many of these specific metrics and conditions can be found in “The Rabbit Hole“, with my final model exclusively published here and in the Discord for subscribers.