Carved out of a pine forest in the scenic foothills of the Rocky Mountains sits Castle Pines Golf Club. Located in Castle Rock, Colorado, just 27 miles south of Denver, Castle Pines is a Jack Nicklaus design that will be the longest course in PGA Tour history at 8,130 yards on the official scorecard.
Club founder Jack Vickers had urged architect Jack Nicklaus to produce a mountain venue design worthy of a major championship – a western version of Augusta National. Since its founding in 1981, Castle Pines has undergone a steady procession of hole alterations to keep pace with changing technology.
The par 72 layout features twisting hole shapes, dramatic elevation changes, elevated, multi-tiered greens, numerous water hazards, and Rocky Mountain air that allows golf balls to travel around 10% further than they would at sea level. The club has become a fixture inside the top 50 of America’s greatest courses.
For 21 years (1986-2006), this course was a mainstay on the PGA Tour, hosting “The International” tournament, that featured the distinctive Stableford scoring system which encouraged aggressive play and rewarded risk-takers. It consistently attracted many of the best players in professional golf and had winners including Retief Goosen, Davis Love III, Phil Mickelson, Brad Faxon, Ernie Els, and Greg Norman.
Unlike the FedEx St. Jude Championship or the Tour Championship, played at TPC Southwind and East Lake respectively, the second playoff tournament has been played on many different courses. Since the event’s name change from the Western Open to its rebranding in 2007, ten different courses have held 17 editions of the BMW Championship. At last year’s BMW Championship, Victor Hovland won his fifth PGA Tour title by two strokes at Olympia Fields over Scottie Scheffler and Matt Fitzpatrick before securing the FedEx Cup title a week later by winning at East Lake.
The Field
50 golfers are still alive heading into the second round of the FedEx Cup Playoffs. They can also breathe a sigh of relief as each one has guaranteed their spot in all eight Signature events next year. The top-30 in the FedEx Cup standings after this week will advance to next week’s Tour Championship. Similar to last week, this is another small-field, no-cut event.
Not one golfer teeing off this week has ever played an official round at Castle Pines. Only Adam Scott was even on the PGA Tour when the last tournament was held in 2006, and he did not compete that week.
The player with the most experience at Castle Pines is unsurprisingly, Colorado native Wyndham Clark who enters this week trending upward. Clark has estimated he’s played Castle Pines 25-30 times over the years. Three weeks ago at the Olympics, he tied for the best scoring total over the last three rounds en route to a 14th-place finish. This past week at the FedEx St. Jude Championship he soared up the leaderboard with a 64 on Sunday and a seventh-place finish.
Most Important Stats For Success at Castle Pines Golf Club
*In order of importance
- SG: Approach
- Total Driving
- Par 5 Scoring
- Proximity: 200+
- Good Drive %
- Birdie or Better %
- SG: Putting (Fast Greens)
- Bogey Avoidance
- Carry Distance
- SG: ARG
Key Rabbit Hole Filters
- Course Region: West
- Course Type: Mountain
- Course Length: Long
- Field Strength: Very Strong
- Field Size: Small Field
- Event Type: FedEx Cup Playoff
- Water Danger: High
- Elevation: High
- Architect: Jack Nicklaus
- Greens Surface: Bent/Poa
- Rough Length: Long
- Gain OTT: Difficult
- Missed Fairway Penalty: High
BMW Championship – Final Model
In each preview article and on Discord, I present my final model, which gives a detailed player ranking of the most important stats and splits for the week. My modeling is built around the PGA’s Strokes Gained data, which is divided into SG: Off the Tee (OTT), SG: Approach (APP), SG: Around the Green (ARG), and SG: Putting (P). Learn more about Strokes Gained and why it can be so useful in analyzing the past and predicting future performance. Many of these specific metrics and conditions can be found in “The Rabbit Hole“, with my final model exclusively published here and in the Discord for subscribers.
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1As9wSgyaBOOP1dJzC5QcJ5Ys8_5u78ZKA214enRPlfc/edit?usp=sharing
Outright Betting Selections
For the most up-to-date picks, check out my Twitter and subscribe to our Discord at BetspertsGolf.com.
*Lines accurate at the time of publication.
- Wyndham Clark +3500 (0.56u) – FD
- Tony Finau +3500 (0.56u) – Rivers
- Will Zalatoris +7500 (0.32u) – Rivers
Finishing Position Picks
Top 5
- Xander Schauffele +130 (1u) – DK
Top 10
- Viktor Hovland +163 (1u) – Rivers
- Patrick Cantlay +175 (1u) – Rivers
Top 20
- Wyndham Clark -125 (2u) – Rivers
- Tony Finau -120 (1.5u) – DK
- Sahith Theegala +110 (1u) – DK
- Akshay Bhatia +125 (1u) – DK
- Will Zalatoris +150 (1u) – Rivers
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Photo by Sam Greenwood/Getty Images