With only two events remaining in the “FedExCup Fall”, the Tour heads to the island of Bermuda for the sixth edition of the Bermuda Championship. Located on high ground overlooking the Atlantic Ocean on the western shore of Southampton Parish, Port Royal Golf Course is one of the world’s most scenic island courses. Known as one of Jack Nicklaus’ all-time favorites, it is a government-run municipal course designed by Robert Trent Jones in 1970.
One of the shortest courses played in the PGA Tour’s annual rotation, it is characterized by its hilly terrain, challenging par-3s, and the seemingly ever-present threat of windy conditions for much of the course. The island has had a challenging leadup to this tournament with more than six hurricanes or tropical storms passing through the area in the last three months.
While any type of player can win here, past winners have included some of the best putters on the Tour, including the likes of Seamus Power, Lucas Herbert, Brendon Todd, and Brian Gay. Fairways are narrow and wedge opportunities are plentiful. This leads to numerous short to mid-range birdie putts players must consistently make to be in contention.
The Field
This week’s Bermuda Championship is critical for players hovering around the top 125 bubble, with those finishing inside that number securing PGA Tour cards for 2025. Players like Daniel Berger, Hayden Springer, and Joel Dahmen are right on the bubble of that magic number in the standings. They, along with numerous other golfers in the field will be hoping for a big performance this week.
Past champions in the field include last year’s winner, Camilo Villegas along with Seamus Power and Brendan Todd. Other notable players in the field include ZOZO Championship winner Nico Echavarria, Lucas Glover, Ben Griffin, Mackenzie Hughes, Maverick McNealy, Andrew Novak, Patrick Rodgers, Nick Taylor, and Jhonattan Vegas.
Most Important Stats For Success at Port Royal GC
*In order of importance
- SG: APP
- SG: Coastal Courses/Windy Conditions
- SG: Putting (Bermuda)
- Good Drive %
- Scrambling
- Birdie or Better %
- Bogeys Avoided
- Fairways Gained
- SG: Weak Fields/Short Courses
- Proximity 75-150 yds
Weather Forecast – Southampton, Bermuda
Bermuda Championship – Final Model
In each preview article and on Discord, I present my final model, which gives a detailed player ranking of the most important stats and splits for the week. My modeling is built around the PGA’s Strokes Gained data, which is divided into SG: Off the Tee (OTT), SG: Approach (APP), SG: Around the Green (ARG), and SG: Putting (P). Learn more about Strokes Gained and why it can be so useful in analyzing the past and predicting future performance. Many of these specific metrics and conditions can be found in “The Rabbit Hole“, with my final model exclusively published here and in the Discord for subscribers.
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1W9UkWV57nCL1pAGMaq92vAzC-XKQjqWh7t-ZTthhEo4/edit?usp=sharing
Outright Betting Selections
For the most up-to-date picks, check out my Twitter and subscribe to our Discord at BetspertsGolf.com.
*Lines accurate at the time of publication.
- B. Griffin +2000 (1.2u) – DK
- Stevens +2800 (0.85u) – Rivers
- Berger +3500 (0.68u) – Rivers
- Vegas +4000 (0.60u) – MGM
Finishing Position Picks
Top 20
- Power -110 (1.1u) – DK
- B. Griffin +110 (1u) – Rivers
- Stevens +125 (1u) – Rivers
- Novak +138 (1u) – Rivers
- Berger +150 (1u) – Rivers
- Vegas +165 (1u) – Caesars
Top 30
- Smalley +105 (1u) – Caesars
- Hubbard +115 (1u) – Caesars
Top 40
- L. Griffin +115 (1u) – MGM
- Piercy +140 (1u) – MGM
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Photo by Sam Greenwood/Getty Images