2024 American Express - DraftKings Picks

Strategy Show

Each tournament, the Betsperts Golf strategy show with Byron Lindeque and myself will be posted here and will cover strategy and our best plays of the week.

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Along with Pebble Beach in a few weeks, The American Express is a uniquely structured tournament with three courses in play and a cut-line after 54 holes instead of after 36. With every player guaranteed three rounds instead of two, taking more risks with player selection is the best strategy. If a player misses the cut, you are only missing out on one round of scoring. Personally, I will be overweight on the trio of Patrick Cantlay, Sungjae Im and Tom Kim along with Wyndham Clark, Eric Cole and Si Woo Kim from the next tier.

There are a variety of both high-floor and high-ceiling options in the $7K range including Alex Noren, Taylor Pendrith, Tom Hoge, Adam Schenk, Nick Taylor, Ben Griffin and Sam Ryder. I’m not real high on anyone in the $6K range with the exception of Alejandro Tosti who has proven to be an elite scorer in Korn Ferry events and finished inside the top 10 at the Mexico Open last year.

The split that I value the most this week in “The Rabbit Hole” is SG: Easy Scoring conditions which analyzes performance on other courses that feature an extremely high birdie or better rate. There are certain golfers this week such as Will Zalatoris or Shane Lowry who simply do not make enough birdie putts to contend in these high-scoring “putting contest” events. Players who perform better at more challenging tournaments or who don’t have the scoring firepower to shoot 7-under each day will be mostly a fade for me this week. Each of the unique splits (SG: West Coast, SG: Short Courses and SG: Easy Scoring has a much higher weight for this week and was also incorporated into the “Core 4” metric along with SG: Approach, SG: Putting and my “Scoring” model. The rankings for each is available in my full model below.

Speaking of “scoring”, this is also the week to chase upside. With winning scores most likely approaching the 25-under range again, we must target players who have proven they can make tons of birdies. Streaky players with win equity are another group that I will be choosing for my player pool this week. Examples of this include players who may not be in great form but who are proven winners like Min Woo Lee, Tony Finau, and Sam Burns.

One final thought – each of the past eight champions (since moving to this current three course rotation) have played in either the Sony Open or The Sentry. Numerous players are making their first start in over two months including players like Justin Thomas, Shane Lowry and Beau Hossler. With the exception of Sam Ryder (tremendous value), I will be fading each of those players.

Most Important Stats For Success at PGA West

*In order of importance

Birdie or Better %
SG: APP
Par 5 Scoring
SG: Putting
Scoring Chances Inside 15 Feet
Proximity 125-200 yds
SG: Easy Scoring Courses
Par 4: 350-450
SG: ARG
Bogey Avoidance

Weather Forecast – La Quinta, CA

American Express – DraftKings Picks

Each week along with presenting my top choices for each of the categories below, I will include each of the pertinent stats for the specific event that comes directly from my model. Except for the “Core Plays,” which most weeks will typically be somewhat on the chalky side, I will include at least one player I am positive on who is forecast to be lower-owned and who will present a good pivot from some of the higher-owned options. In essence, the players you see below make up the majority of my player pool for this event.