The PGA Tour heads east from Hawaii to the Coachella Valley desert in La Quinta, California, for The American Express at PGA West. This event changes its name like I change my underwear, so if you’re looking at past events, this could be titled anything from the Desert Classic, CareerBuilder Challenge, or the Bob Hope Classic.
The American Express is a unique event to handicap. This is a three-course rotation that includes a Pro-Am element, where each pro tees off with an amateur for the first three rounds of the tournament. It also features a 54-hole cut on Saturday night after each golfer has played a round on the events’ three courses. Once everyone’s made their way around the Nicklaus Tournament Course, La Quinta Country Club, and The Stadium Course, the cut-makers will head back out to play The Stadium Course once again for the final round.
The Stadium Course is a Pete Dye design, which is a fine place to start if you’re looking for corollary courses this week, and it’s the only place with Shotlink data for this event. That means we’re flying blind with strokes-gained data for all rounds at Nicklaus and La Quinta. A look at past leaderboards will again show that the winner must go low. The Pro-Am element comes with slower greens and amateur-friendly pin placements, so past success in easy scoring conditions is ideal. The only time this event’s winner failed to break 20-under par was Charley Hoffman back in 2007.
For more course details, check out Ron’s course preview. It’s the best in the business, bar none. Here’s an important tidbit about the unique setup this week and the commonalities between the three courses:
All of the courses being utilized do share some of the same characteristics. Each has four scoreable par-5s and is under 7,200 yards. Each has poa trivialis greens and ryegrass fairways surrounded by non-penal dormant Bermuda rough. Each is also amongst the easiest annual courses in the PGA Tour rotation.
The Stadium Course is the toughest of the three and will be used for two of the four rounds. It is a Pete Dye design featuring smaller greens, plenty of bunkers, and seven holes with water danger to contend with. Another reason the winning score usually ends up in the 25-under range is that all three are resort-style courses with pin placements made intentionally easy for the amateurs who are playing. It is a tournament where all different styles of players can thrive, and those with the hottest flat stick in the inevitable putting contest are usually rewarded.
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There are millions of ways to bet on this beautiful game, and my goal with this piece is to touch on the golfers I’m targeting this week. Remember to check out the Rabbit Hole, our customizable stat database that can help you pair down your player pool each week.
Please take advantage of the Discord feature and community. It’s the best way to get up-to-the-minute lines and advice, and if you need help getting started, please reach out. That’s where my full card will be posted, along with any live in-tournament bets. Betting markets are fluid, but I’ll note the best number available at the time of this writing.
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*Betting lines are accurate at the time of publication.
Noonan’s American Express Betting Targets
Xander Schauffele
I’m not in love with many of the mid-tier prices this week, so I’m going to take a shot at the top of the board with Xander Schauffele. There’s a clear ‘Big 3’ this week, with Scottie Scheffler, Patrick Cantlay, and Schaffele, who’s been excellent in his home state of California throughout his career. He skipped the trip to PGA West for six years until he returned last year and finished tied for third. When filtering through data in the Rabbit Hole, Schauffele shows up as one of this field’s top players in easy scoring conditions, which we have at all three courses this week. He’s coming off his best season statistically in both strokes gained approach (SG: APP) and putting, but he failed to find the winner’s circle in 2023. He played well enough to win at Wells Fargo, RBC Heritage, and The TOUR Championship, but he ran into buzzsaws those weeks. I think he’s a multi-time winner in 2024, and he gets the first one out of the way early at this week’s Am Ex.
To Win: 12/1 DraftKings
Top 10: +120 BetMGM
Cam Davis
Last week’s first-round leader faded a bit over the weekend, but I’m willing to go back to him here at 80/1. Cam Davis is long off the tee, and his one career win came at The Rocket Mortgage back in 2021. That high-level profile tells a story that doesn’t quite fit Davis’s reality on Tour. His best finishes outside of his win have come on shorter, less-than-driver, positional tracks, typically Pete Dye courses. Over the past three years, he ranks seventh in this field in average strokes gained per round on Dye courses. He’s routinely played well at both TPC Sawgrass and the RBC Heritage, posting at T7 or better at both events last season. When looking at performance in easy or very easy scoring conditions over the past three seasons, Davis ranks eighth in total strokes gained.
To Win: 80/1 BetRivers
Top 40: +110 BetRivers
Sam Ryder
This is obviously a long shot, but at a place where we’ve seen Adam Long, Andrew Landry, and Hudson Swafford take home the hardware, I think it’s ok to take a shot at someone deep down the board, and Ryder profiles as an excellent fit this week. He leads the field in strokes gained approach over the past 36 rounds and ranks 10th over the past 12 months. He comes in on the heels of two solid performances at the Sea Island (T13) and El Cardonal (T10), and while he’s never really put it all together at PGA West, his familiarity with the format and layout helps. He’s shown the ability to have spiked putting weeks, especially on the West Coast, and if he can pair his second-shot form with a hot flat stick, he will easily pay off his finishing position bet at this price.
To Win: 200/1 FanDuel
Top 40: +165 DraftKings
FanDuel Finishing Position/To Make The Cut Parlays
Scottie Scheffler and Patrick Cantlay – Top 20 (+103)
As of this writing, FanDuel has yet to post T30 or T40 finishing position bets or to make the cut bets, so I’m forced to pivot from my typical T40 plays.
Unlike most other books I’m familiar with, FanDuel allows you to parlay finishing position bets within the same finishing tier. Now, the very premise of the bet is flawed because the expected value is negative since players are competing for the same finishing positions. If the bet is two T20s like this one, when one leg of your parlay finishes above the threshold, there’s now one less spot available in that range for the other leg(s) to also come in. I know the math is terrible. Spare me. But let’s be honest. Some bets are just fun, and these are fun for me. This is a relatively new entry to the space, thanks to our friends at FanDuel. I played a number of these last season with a 9.85% ROI, so I’ll continue it this season. If it’s not for you, feel free to skip it.
I’ve already laid out the case for Schauffele, but I’d be stunned if the other two top dogs here, Scheffler and Cantlay, don’t pick apart these easy courses as well. Cantlay is also a California product that’s thrived on West Coast/desert golf layouts, and Scheffler has finished outside the top 20 just twice in his past 25 starts.
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