2023 Zurich Classic - DraftKings Picks

Strategy

With TPC Louisiana being a second-shot course where driving accuracy has proven not to matter as much, I will be focusing on players who are strong in SG: Approach and who can avoid the numerous greenside bunkers and water hazards. With typically softer and damp conditions, along with four par-5s and four par-4s over 470 yards, proximity from 200+ yards and par-5 scoring will be a couple of the other main attributes I will target with my team selection. It is also interesting to note that the par-3s are all lengthy and guarded by water, and players with past success on tougher par-3s are another factor to target.

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In general, though, I will be taking a very basic approach in targeting teams that are in the best form (using SG: Total) over the past 36 rounds and who also create and convert the most birdie or better opportunities. Modeling and studying analytics doesn’t work as well for this event due to the team structure. The chemistry amongst partners along with complementary skill sets (approach/putting) are typically much more relevant at a team event than raw data.

Other than being a completely different style of tournament this week, the other big narrative is how top-heavy the teams are at this event. Cantlay and Schauffele stand alone at the top. They will most likely be owned at anywhere between 40-50% and I will be heavily overweight at even that number. Certainly, the team of Homa and Morikawa has the ability to knock them off, but the defending champs lead by a sizeable margin in almost every major category that matters at TPC Louisiana.

Another strategy is that when analyzing teams, try to find one player good off the tee (OTT) and the other on approach (APP). A perfect example, and one of my favorite value plays is the Kevin Roy/Brent Grant team at $6.9K. Grant is 9th best in this field OTT while Roy is 14th best on Approach. During the alternating shot, players who fit this mold can have their best APP player tee off on the odd number holes (which favor players with strong Approach games) and their best OTT player tee off on the even holes. With this strategy, Roy and Grant should get their ball in good position on most of the greens. Then it just becomes a matter of getting the ball in the hole which is a weakness for both of them. But, as we all know, putting is volatile which keeps this group alive thanks to their tremendous ball-striking upside.

Once past those first two teams, there is a slightly larger second tier that should each be staples in your player pool. This includes the teams of Tom Kim/Si Woo Kim, Keith Mitchell/Sungjae Im and Sam Burns/Billy Horschel. Two European groups in particular, Thomas Detry and Victor Perez along with Thorbjorn Olesen and Nicolai Hojgaard make up two world-class teams who have the ability to make some noise this week and are excellent pieces to heavily include in your lineups.

Some of the most underpriced teams that makeup the best values on the slate include: Adam Hadwin/Nick Taylor at $8.5K, Thomas Detry/VictorPerez at $7.9K, Thorbjorn Olesen/Nicolai Hojgaard at $7.9K, Scott Stallings/Trey Mullinax at $7.4K, and Ben An/S.H. Kim at $7.1K.

2023 Zurich Classic – Narratives and Important Metrics

As is typical, Dye created a “thinking man’s course” that demands precision around the water hazards and bunkers. Many holes, such as the par-4 16th present a risk/reward option. It challenges players to how much they are willing to risk to have a better scoring opportunity. It’s a very scoreable course as evidenced by last year’s record winning score, along with each of the prior four winning pairs reaching 20-under or better.

Gaining strokes on approach is the most important metric this week. Before the format change to the team event, Strokes Gained Approach and Greens in Regulation were important for success here as seven of the 11 winners ranked inside the top 10 for GIR%. TPC Louisiana regularly ranked inside the top 10 easiest approach courses on Tour. Including the four par 3s that are each between 200-225 yards, over 30% of approach shots will come from over 200 yards making quality long iron play paramount to success. In typical Pete Dye fashion, the greens are tiered and sloping, putting a premium on a precise approach game. The importance of this aspect will be multiplied during the best-ball format in the first and third rounds as each team will have two approach chances into each green.

Players can get away with shaky around-the-green play here as it consistently ranked among the easiest short-game courses on the PGA Tour. Six of the last seven winners before 2017 ranked inside the top 10 for putting average, and each of the last four gained at least 4.2 strokes putting. When Rose won he also ranked first in putting average for the week. With this event being somewhat of a putting contest, it is imperative to have at least one quality putter on each team.

To summarize, SG: Approach, Putting, Par 5 scoring, and Proximity from 200+ yards, along with the always important Birdie or Better % in a team event, are the most important stats to target for this week’s Zurich Classic.

Avondale, Louisiana – Weather Forecast

Zurich Classic – DraftKings Picks

Each week along with presenting my top choices for each of the categories below, I will include each of the pertinent stats for the specific event that comes directly from my model. Except for the “Core Plays,” which most weeks will typically be somewhat on the chalky side, I will include at least one player I am positive on who is forecast to be lower-owned and who will present a good pivot from some of the higher-owned options. In essence, the players you see below make up the majority of my player pool for this event.