The PGA Tour heads down to Bayou Country just southwest of New Orleans for a unique team event at TPC Louisiana known as the Zurich Classic. With its origins 85 years ago, the tournament was a regular, stroke-play PGA event until 2017 when it became a two-man team event. With 80 teams in the field, one player from each team is initially chosen via the Tour priority rankings. That player can choose any partner who is also a PGA Tour member.
The teams will play “best ball” format during the first and third rounds while the second and fourth rounds will be “alternate shot” format. The top 33 teams (and ties) will make it through the cut-line after Friday’s round. The PGA Tour further describes the format in more detail:
For Foursomes play, players will rotate tee shots. One player will hit the tee shots on all the odd-numbered holes, and the other will hit the tee shot on even-numbered holes. Example: Player A and Player B are partners. On the first hole, Player A tees off; Player B plays the second shot; Player A plays the third shot; and so on until the ball is holed. The total strokes taken will result in the team’s score for that hole.
For Four-Ball play, the players on each team will each play his own ball throughout the entirety of the round, with the best score on each hole recorded. Example: On the first hole, both golfers on each team tee off. Player A pars the hole and Player B birdies it. The team will be credited with a birdie.
The winners earn 400 FedEx Cup points and two-year exemptions, but no world ranking points are awarded which takes away some pressure to make the cut. Both winners will earn invitations to the Sentry Tournament of Champions, THE PLAYERS Championship, and the PGA Championship.
It’s definitely a unique competition and a way for players to relax a bit after some strenuous past events such as the Masters, and before others like the upcoming PGA Championship. The New Orleans food and culture also add to the “pull” of this event and why there are typically a good number of high-ranked players in attendance every year. The tournament this year appears to have a smaller number of upper-tier of players thanks to the recent consecutive designated events. There are still some world-class players teaming up including defending champions Patrick Cantlay and Xander Schauffele, Collin Morikawa and Max Homa, Sam Burns, and Billy Horschel, Tom Kim and Si Woo Kim, and Sungjae Im and Keith Mitchell. After this elite group and a smaller second tier, the talent level of the teams decline quickly.
2023 Zurich Classic – Betting Narratives and Strategies
Other than being a completely different style of tournament this week, the other big narrative is how top-heavy the teams are at this event. Cantlay and Schauffele stand alone at the top. Fortunately, I was able to jump on them at +500 to win when odds first dropped before they were knocked down just minutes later. Certainly, the team of Homa and Morikawa has the ability to knock them off, but the defending champs lead by a sizeable margin in almost every major category that matters at TPC Louisiana.
Once past those first two teams, there is a slightly larger second tier that should each be great top 10/20 selections. Two European teams in particular, Thomas Detry and Victor Perez along with Thorbjorn Olesen and Nicolai Hojgaard make up two world-class teams who have the ability to make some noise this week and are excellent top-20 bets as well.
As far as the metrics that matter at TPC Louisiana, par 5 scoring will be paramount this week. Each of the par-5s rates as a great birdie opportunity with at least three of them easily reachable in two shots. The par-4s are on both ends of the length spectrum. Four of them measure over 475 yards while five measure less than 405 yards, including the driveable 16th hole. Each of the four par-3s measures over 200 yards and they represent three of the six toughest holes on the course.
As is typical, Dye created a “thinking man’s course” that demands precision around the water hazards and bunkers. Many holes, such as the par-4 16th present a risk/reward option. It challenges players to how much they are willing to risk to have a better scoring opportunity. It’s a very scoreable course as evidenced by last year’s record winning score, along with each of the prior four winning pairs reaching 20-under or better.
Gaining strokes on approach is the most important metric this week. Before the format change to the team event, Strokes Gained Approach and Greens in Regulation were important for success here as seven of the 11 winners ranked inside the top 10 for GIR%. TPC Louisiana regularly ranked inside the top 10 easiest approach courses on Tour. Including the four par 3s that are each between 200-225 yards, over 30% of approach shots will come from over 200 yards making quality long iron play paramount to success. In typical Pete Dye fashion, the greens are tiered and sloping, putting a premium on a precise approach game. The importance of this aspect will be multiplied during the best-ball format in the first and third rounds as each team will have two approach chances into each green.
Players can get away with shaky around-the-green play here as it consistently ranked among the easiest short-game courses on the PGA Tour. Six of the last seven winners before 2017 ranked inside the top 10 for putting average, and each of the last four gained at least 4.2 strokes putting. When Rose won he also ranked first in putting average for the week. With this event being somewhat of a putting contest, it is imperative to have at least one quality putter on each team.
To summarize, SG: Approach, Putting, Par 5 scoring, and Proximity from 200+ yards, along with the always important Birdie or Better % in a team event, are the most important stats to target for this week’s Zurich Classic.
Avondale, Louisiana – Weather Forecast
The Zurich Classic Final Model
In each preview article and on Discord, I present my final model, which gives a detailed player ranking of the most important stats and splits for the week. My modeling is built around the PGA’s Strokes Gained data, which is divided into SG: Off the Tee (OTT), SG: Approach (APP), SG: Around the Green (ARG), and SG: Putting (P). Learn more about Strokes Gained and why it can be so useful in analyzing the past and predicting future performance. Many of the individual splits will be posted on my Twitter feed, with the final model exclusively published here for subscribers.
Outright Betting Selections
*Lines accurate at the time of publication.
Patrick Cantlay and Xander Schaffele +500 (currently +300)
The defending champions are both playing high-level golf over the past few months. Cantlay has three top-4s in his last five starts while Schauffele is coming off consecutive top-10s. The two are best friends outside of golf and completely dominated this event last year. From SG: Approach, to SG: Putting to each of the other important metrics, Cantlay and Schauffele have a dominant edge on every other team in this field.
(4u) DraftKings
Thorbjorn Olesen and Nicolai Hojgaard +6600 (currently +4600)
This talented Danish duo will be making their team debut in this year’s event. Hojgaard has found some recent success in his first few events on the PGA Tour including a runner-up finish in Puntacana. He and the veteran, Olesen, have been among the best players on the DP World Tour over the past year and bring a tremendous amount of upside and birdie-making potential to this easy-scoring course.
(0.35u) BetRivers
Finishing Position Picks – all DraftKings
Top 10
- Collin Morikawa and Max Homa +130 (1.5u)
The Cal Berkeley products are the clear second-best team in the field this week and among the premier ball-strikers in the entire world. Whether its Birdie or Better rate, Par 5 scoring, or past history on comparable courses, they are in the top-5 in almost every single metric this week and could challenge Patrick Cantlay and Xander Schauffele for the trophy.
- Sungjae Im and Keith Mitchell +160 (1.1u)
- Tom Kim and Si Woo Kim +180 (1u)
Top 20
- Sam Burns and Billy Horschel -120 (2u)
- Kurt Kitayama and Taylor Montgomery+100 (1.5u)
- Wyndham Clark and Beau Hossler+110 (1.4u)
- Nick Taylor and Adam Hadwin +125 (1u)
- Thorbjorn Olesen and Nicolai Hojgaard +140 (1u)
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Photo by Sam Greenwood/Getty Images