The Tour heads to Sedgefield Country Club this week for the Wyndham Championship in Greensboro, North Carolina. This is the final tournament of the 2023 regular season for the PGA Tour, with the top 70 players in the FedEx Cup standings moving on to next week’s St. Jude Championship at TPC Southwind.
Playing as a Par-70, Sedgefield typically rates out as one of the easiest stops on Tour, with the winning score coming in at -20 or lower in six of the past seven stops. Sedgefield has two Par-5s that are reachable by the entire field, while eight of the course’s Par-4s fall between 400-450 yards.
The Donald Ross-designed course plays just 7,130 yards from the tips and features fast Champion Bermuda greens. Of course, distance off the tee always helps, but fairways are a priority this week. Knowing that the top is going low, birdie opportunities are paramount. With the majority of the holes being Par-4’s ranging from 400-450 yards, exceptional iron play from the fairway- particularly approaches from the 125-175 range-paired with a hot putter on these undulating Bermuda grass green complexes will be the recipe for success this week. We’ve seen course history play a role here over the years, and I’m weighing it, along with success at corollary courses like Harbour Town, Sea Island, TPC Sawgrass, Colonial, and Waialae Country Club. They all share a common thread and leaderboards, with positional golf off-the-tee, dynamic wedge play, and a hot putter.
For more course details, check out Ron’s course preview. It’s the best in the business, bar none. Here are a few interesting nuggets about Sedgefield:
At Sedgefield, the GIR rate from the fairway is the easiest on Tour at an astounding 85%. From the rough or fairway bunkers, it drops down to 54%. The second clear-cut area for success at Sedgefield is approach shot accuracy from between 100-175. 55% of approaches come from this range, making it paramount to select players who are positive with their short irons and wedges. With the greens having so many undulations and ridges, proximity to the hole with those clubs is necessary to have any chance of winning this week.
Compared to other Tour courses, Sedgefield has ranked as the easiest course to gain strokes on approach since 2015. Once players are taking aim at their approach shots, they will be hitting into incredibly receptive greens that have one of the highest GIR rates on Tour at 74%. One of the reasons for this is the constant watering due to the heat of the Carolina summer.
Last year, the top four on the leaderboard each gained four strokes putting. Two years ago, 22 of the top 23 on the leaderboard gained strokes putting, with 18 of those players gaining three strokes! And in 2020, you had to go all the way down to 27th place to find a golfer who lost strokes on the greens, with 18 of the top 20 gaining at least two strokes.
My goal with this piece is to touch on the golfers I’m targeting this week. There are millions of ways to bet on this beautiful game, so I’ll share my opinion on the best way to bet on each golfer in my player pool at this week’s event. When pricing out finishing position bets (T5, T10, T20s, etc.), I’ll often lean towards BetMGM even if there’s a better number elsewhere because of MGM’s advantageous dead-heat rules. So know the rules of the books that you’re betting on!
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*Betting lines are accurate when posted in Discord.
Noonan’s Wyndham Championship Targets
Si Woo Kim
In years past, Si Woo Kim has said that Sedgefield was his favorite course to play on Tour, and it’s not hard to figure out why. His game is custom fit for stops like this, and his PGA Tour wins to date have come on corollary courses where accuracy off the tee and strong wedge play are the name of the game. Si Woo went nuclear here in his 2016 win and rattled off three straight top-five finishes from 2019-2021 before playing sick in last year’s event, eventually withdrawing on Saturday.
Putting is always an adventure, but Bermuda grass is his preferred/best-performing surface. The rest of his game is ready. He ranks third in this field in SG: T2G over the past 24 rounds. He’s going to play from the fairways at an above-average rate, and he’s been excellent from the key proximity ranges. This all shakes out to a lot of birdie looks for Si Woo, and if the putter is anywhere near field average, he’ll be in contention.
Denny McCarthy
After a poor showing at The Open, we’re getting Denny McCarthy at a bit longer odds than expected, given his form prior to Royal Liverpool. McCarthy followed up his solo second at Memorial with a T20 at the U.S. Open, a T7 at the Travelers, and a T6 at the John Deere Classic. He’s one of the best in the field on shorter Par-4s from 400-450 yards, and Sedgefield has eight on the scorecard.
He missed the cut here last year after uncharacteristically spraying it off the tee in Round 1, but he posted T15, T9, and T22 the three years prior, so the course suits his game well. If all else fails, his putter is good enough to keep him alive, having gained 0.84 strokes per round in his 18 career rounds at Sedgefield.
Alex Smalley
The Duke grad and Greensboro native calls Sedgefield Country Club home. It’s the prevailing narrative you’ll likely hear about everywhere this week, but it’s especially relevant because Alex Smalley is playing really well right now.
I backed him at the John Deere a few weeks back, where he finished T2 and gained strokes throughout the bag. He lost strokes on approach last time out in Scotland, the first time he’s done that in nine starts, but I’m willing to look past that since links-style tracks are a beast unto their own. He checks every box for me this week, with strong Par-4 scoring, accuracy off the tee, and elite iron play from 175 yards and in. Putting is the most inconsistent part of his game, but he’s gained 0.75 strokes putting per round in his two career starts at his home course, finishing T29 in 2021 and T13 last year. He’ll be a popular click this week, and rightfully so.
Adam Schenk
It’s been an all-or-nothing ride for Adam Schenk this season. Outside of T31 finishes at Bay Hill and Harbour Town, Schenk has either missed the cut or finished inside the top seven in every start since March. That’s two gut-wrenching solo seconds at the Valspar and Charles Schwab, followed by a recent string of three T7 or better finishes in five starts prior to his last start at The Open (MC).
His course history at Sedgefield is not impressive, but he’s playing the best golf of his career, and he profiles as an excellent fit for what’s needed here. Over the past 24 rounds, he’s been the best player in the field in proximity from 150-175 yards, and he’s averaged 0.9 strokes per round on the field tee-to-green over that same timeframe. Schenk was sub-30/1 last time he teed it up stateside at the John Deere Classic, and while this field is better, it’s not three times better, and that’s what we’re getting Schenk at this week.
FanDuel Finishing Position Parlays
Russell Henley and J.T. Poston – T40 (+157)
Unlike most other books I’m familiar with, FanDuel allows you to parlay finishing position bets. I played a number of these last season with a 9.85% ROI, so I’ll continue it this season. If it’s not for you, feel free to skip it.
Now, the very premise of the bet is flawed because the expected value is negative since players are competing for the same finishing positions. If the bet is two T40s like this one, when one leg of your parlay finishes above the threshold, there’s now one less spot available in that range for the other leg(s) to also come in. I know the math is terrible. Spare me. But let’s be honest. Some bets are just fun, and these are fun for me.
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