2023 World Wide Technology Championship - DraftKings Picks

Strategy

After a couple of weeks off for some players and even longer for others, combined with an easy-scoring resort course with the biggest combination of fairway width and green size on Tour – we have a birdie-fest of a golf tournament with an enormous amount of variance.

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With the highest-priced ($11.3K) Ludvig Aberg coming in at around 31% ownership, an important choice must be made in whether to fade him or not. I believe the unequivocal answer is that Aberg must be played. With six consecutive top-15 finishes, he has been nothing short of dominant. I am also very high on the next highest-priced players in this tier, Cameron Young ($10.9K) and Sahith Theegala ($10.7K). Along with Aberg, with their length off the tee, streakiness on the greens, and overall scoring upside – each is a perfect fit for this course.

The next three players, Stephan Jaeger, Lucas Glover, and Beau Hossler are fades for me. Jaeger has been very consistent but only has one top-15 finish since July and only has one top-10 in his entire PGA Tour career! Glover and Hossler have had hot stretches over the past couple of months, but there is no chance I am playing them at $10K when the $9K tier below them is stacked with players who fit El Cardonal much better. My favorite players and entire pool from both the $9K and $8K range are listed at the bottom of this article.

With there not being a single player that I have faith in from the $6K range, I will be using numerous $7K players with winning upside. This list includes Brandon Wu, Taylor Montgomery, Ben Griffin, K.H. Lee, and Sam Ryder.

The Course and Important Stats

Even without past course history and any strokes gained data from this course to rely on, the recipe for success at El Cardonal seems quite clear. The most important thing to understand is that players have options. Each option has its advantages and disadvantages. Longer hitters can bomb away aggressively with the driver off the tee in order to set up closer approach shots to the hole. This obviously brings the desert arroyos and fairway bunkers into play for those who are wild with their tee shots.

The second option is to play more conservatively off the tee in order to get the best possible angle into the green and to avoid any of the trouble areas. The negative with this approach is it will leave golfers with much longer irons into the greens. Each method is viable thanks in part to the lack of overall hazards, especially when hitting their approach shots into the enormous greens. While driving distance is an advantage this week for the likes of Ludvig Aberg, Cameron Young, Luke List and Davis Thompson, shorter hitters, without a doubt, can also contend here.

Thus, with almost everyone having a good chance to hit the green, it will be the quality of the approach shot that will most likely define the result on each hole. Thus, SG: Approach is the most important stat this week. In my opinion, a player’s ability to manage approach flight and land the ball on the proper quadrant of these undulating greens so it can feed toward the hole will be the foremost factor in determining the winner.

With the likelihood of this turning into a birdie-fest with a 25-under winning score, and essentially a putting contest, we want players who are birdie machines and who can score in bunches, especially on the par 5s. When looking at my Scoring model for the week, Aberg, Lucas Glover, Sam Ryder, Doug Ghim, and Davis Thompson are among the best in this field in Birdie or Better % and Par 5 Scoring

I also want to play golfers who have experience in handling massive greens and who succeed at three-putt avoidance. Four of my outright and finishing position selections excel in this area – Emiliano Grillo, Adam Svensson, Ben Griffin, and Andrew Putnam.

Successful past performance on Paspalum grass is another narrative I am chasing this week. Paspalum is a real spongy grass that takes some time to get used to, and some players just flat-out struggle on this surface. Brandon Wu is an example of someone who thrives on this surface. In his handful of PGA Tour appearances on courses that feature Paspalum, he has finishes that include a 3rd, 32nd, 28th, 3rd, 7th, and 2nd. In some parts, Emiliano Grillo has become known as the Prince of Paspalum thanks to his success on this surface. Over the past three years, he has had five top-8 finishes on this grass type.

Top 10 Most Important Stats

SG: APP
Driving Distance
3-Putt AVD
Birdie or Better %
SG: Putting (Bent)
Opportunities Gained
Par 5 Scoring
Sand Save %
SG: Easy Scoring Conditions
Proximity 175+ yds

World Wide Technology Championship – DraftKings Picks

Each week along with presenting my top choices for each of the categories below, I will include each of the pertinent stats for the specific event that comes directly from my model. Except for the “Core Plays,” which most weeks will typically be somewhat on the chalky side, I will include at least one player I am positive on who is forecast to be lower-owned and who will present a good pivot from some of the higher-owned options. In essence, the players you see below make up the majority of my player pool for this event.