2023 WM Phoenix Open - Round 4 Betting and Showdown Picks

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Even though Max Homa went against all odds and overtook Jon Rahm at the last star-studded event at the Farmers Insurance Open two weeks ago, it is tough to believe that someone other than Scottie Scheffler (-13) or Rahm (-11) will win tomorrow. Canadians Nick Taylor (-11) and Adam Hadwin (-10) don’t have the pedigree or the scoring firepower. Jason Day and Rickie Fowler (both -9) are wonderful comeback stories, but as excellent as they have played so far, both seem to lack the ability to avoid enough mistakes to overtake two of the best players in the world. Jordan Spieth (-10), Xander Schauffele (-9), Sungjae Im (-9), and Tyrrell Hatton (-9) would appear to be the best candidates, but unless Scheffler and Rahm both have a semi-collapse, it seems like a tough climb. If I had to choose one, it would be Schauffele at +2000. He has the best all-around game, combined with excellent course history at TPC Scottsdale, and is one of the best “Sunday” players in the world.

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Round 4 Betting Matchups Model

*Strokes Gained Rating (SG RTG) is the key metric that combines all the weighted categories in the model. Some players (or matchups) may not be listed due to not having enough sample size data.