I’m still riding the high of spending three days at Olympia Fields last week, highlighted by walking the back nine with Viktor Hovland on Sunday, an absolutely incredible experience to witness firsthand. Winning a golf outright bet is a unique feeling, but being on hand to watch your lone outright play go full scorched earth, firing a 28 on the back nine to break the course record with a 61? It’s on my live sports viewing Mount Rushmore, that’s for sure. Now for the exhale.
The PGA Tour season and FedEx Cup Playoffs come to an end this week in Atlanta at East Lake Golf Club. There are two markets for this event, which makes watching and handicapping it quite different than most weeks.
We’ve seen a plethora of formats to properly award an end-of-the-year champion on the PGA Tour, and I don’t want to rip on the current design without presenting a better solution to fixing it because I don’t have one. So I’ll just say I don’t like it and know I’m not alone.
The starting stroke index, which alters each player’s starting score based on their current FedEx Cup standings, ensures that we have just one winner at East Lake on Sunday afternoon. Most sportsbooks will allow us to bet on that staggered scoring outcome, along with your typical, everyone-starts-at-zero market as well. So here’s how things will start:
Similarly to last week at Olympia Fields, East Lake puts a premium on ball striking and accuracy off the tee. Ten of the past 14 winners at East Lake, including Rory McIlroy last season, finished inside the top-10 in fairways hit for the week. This 7,346-yard Par-70 track forces more long irons on approach than your standard tour stop, and with only two par-5s on the course, including the finishing hole at 18, scoring opportunities are at a premium this week. In addition, the Bermudagrass greens are traditionally fast here, so proximity on approach is vital to one’s success.
For more course notes, check out Ron’s course preview, but here’s an important tidbit about East Lake:
East Lake packs plenty of length and requires driver to be hit off most of the tees. That, along with such narrow fairways, is the reason it has an adjusted driving accuracy rate of 62%, which is the eighth toughest on Tour. With the Bermuda rough being the 3rd most penal on Tour, there is a high premium on keeping the ball in the fairway. In fact, player after player has remarked on how that is the most important factor for having success on this course. Obviously, distance off the tee also helps, which makes Total Driving a key stat this week.
East Lake features one of the largest Greens in Regulation (GIR) differentials when comparing shots from the fairway to the rough. It is very hard to get spin on the ball when it is sitting down in the Bermuda rough. The overall GIR sits at around 63%, which is the 9th lowest out of all of the measured courses. It is also difficult to gain strokes on approach because greens have well-defined target areas. Many of the green complexes are elevated and undulated, making it paramount to position the ball below the pin.
My goal with this piece is to touch on the golfers I’m targeting this week. There are millions of ways to bet on this beautiful game, so I’ll share my opinion on the best way to bet on each golfer in my player pool at this week’s event. When pricing out finishing position bets (T5, T10, T20s, etc.), I’ll often lean towards BetMGM even if there’s a better number elsewhere because of MGM’s advantageous dead-heat rules. So know the rules of the books that you’re betting on!
Please take advantage of the subscriber-only Discord feature and community. It’s the best way to get up-to-the-minute lines and advice, and if you need help getting started, please reach out. That’s where my full card will be posted, along with any live in-tournament bets from myself or other contributors.
*Betting lines are accurate when posted in Discord.
Noonan’s Tour Championship Targets
First or Second – Any Order (Bonus Strokes Applied)
Rory McIlroy/Viktor Hovland
This is a tough week since offerings differ from book to book. An iteration of this particular bet is also available on BetRivers, but it’s offered as a two-way market, meaning you can also bet on the ‘NO’ side. It’s also an either-or, so it doesn’t matter which of the other 28 golfers comes in second; as long as Rory (-7) or Vik (-8) wins, you’re good to go at +150. With their current starting positions in the staggered scoring, plus recent form and course fit, I like getting 8/1 here.
Now, this is a proactive fade of Scottie Scheffler (-10), who starts the event with a two-stroke lead. With Jon Rahm’s recent struggles, I believe this turns into a three-horse race.
- To Win: +800 BetMGM
I wanted to note a few other players that I’m considering this week, even though I haven’t bet them to win outright as of this writing. They’ll likely be finishing position bets for me this week.
- The model loves Russell Henley (-3) again this week. His propensity for finding fairways helps here, along with his exceptionally consistent iron play. He’s finished inside the top eight in three straight starts and has landed T19 or better in 11 of 14 starts dating back to The PLAYERS Championship in March. Henley hasn’t been to East Lake in a few years but finished third here back in 2017. A top-ten bet is in order.
- I’ve successfully backed Corey Conners (-2) for two straight weeks, and I love his fit for East Lake. Conners has consistently gained strokes off the tee all season long and ranks 10th in my model this week due to his strong Par 4 stats and total driving prowess.
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