The second week of the 2023 season keeps us in Hawaii, this time at Waialae Country Club in Honolulu. This is the season’s first official full-field event, with 144 golfers, including seven of the top 25 in the OWGR teeing it up at this week’s Sony Open.
Looking at past seasons, you can see that the weather, primarily the wind, can have a massive impact on how this event plays out. Hideki Matsuyama (-23) chased down Russell Henley last season, Kevin Na (-21) won in 2021 with a similar score, while Cameron Smith (-11) won 2020’s lift-clean-and-place iteration, which featured a windy and rain-soaked mess of a weekend. Early weather reports are encouraging, though they are increasing the rough at Waialae this season, growing it out another half-inch, so we might be set up for a mid-teens finish instead of the low-20s that we’ve seen the past two seasons.
Waialae is a second-shot course with small, flat Bermuda greens. The fairways here are significantly more narrow than the airport runways featured at Kapalua, but hitting the fairways at Waialae isn’t the skeleton key it was in years past. Finding the fairway is crucial here, and you’ll see players club down often if the wind becomes an issue. Having the ideal angle for your second shot is paramount, even more so than finding the fairway off the tee. As they were last week at Kapalua, the green complexes here are Bermudagrass this week, but that’s where the parallels end. These greens are firmer and much smaller, and flatter than what the field saw last week.
Handicapping early-season events when we have less relevant form data than we do in the spring and summer is a bit more of a feel thing than I’d like it to be. I’d prefer to lean on as much data as possible, but we’re all in the same boat so let’s work with what we have. We do know that course history matters here. According to DataGolf, Waialae Country Club trails only Augusta National in terms of predictive course history. The PGA Tour’s Justin Ray also chimed in with a gem this week, noting that eight of the last nine winners at the Sony Open played the previous week at the Sentry Tournament of Champions. Of the 51 players the last 2 years to tee it up in both events, 42 (82%) went on to make the cut at Waialae. Russell Henley’s 2013 win was the lone debutant winner in the past 17 stops at Waialae. That should help form our high-level thoughts this week as we dig into the field, with 18 golfers from last week’s Tournament of Champions teeing it up in Honolulu this week.
For more course details, check out Ron’s course preview. It’s the best in the business, bar none. Here’s an important tidbit about Waialae Country Club:
Because Waialae favors accuracy over distance off the tee, it does a great job of allowing every player type to compete this week by leveling the field. Whoever can shape their drive into the best target zones on the fairway from which to access some of the trickier pin positions on the greens will have a huge edge.
With increases in distance over the years, more players have started to take aggressive lines from the tee, but there is danger with the ball running through the fairway and into the rough and having to hit an unpredictable 70-yard wedge that knuckles up to the green. The 3-inch rough at Waialae is longer than it’s been in previous years and is definitely long enough to make it difficult to control the spin. Golfers that have played here multiple times and understand where and when to lay up are going to have an advantage.
One of the subtleties of Waialae is that thanks to the angles on so many of the holes, there is typically one side of the fairway (or rough) that is a better place to be positioned for the approach shot compared to the opposite side. As Russell Henley remarked, “You just have to pick what side of the fairway you want to miss. There’s usually one side out here that’s better than the other.”
My goal with this piece is to touch on the golfers I’m targeting this week. There are millions of ways to bet on this beautiful game, so I’ll share my opinion on the best way to bet on each golfer in my player pool at this week’s event. When pricing out finishing position bets (T5, T10, T20s, etc.), I’ll often lean towards BetMGM even if there’s a better number elsewhere because of MGM’s advantageous dead-heat rules. So know the rules of the books that you’re betting on!
Please take advantage of the Discord feature and community. It’s the best way to get up-to-the-minute lines and advice, and if you need help getting started, please reach out. That’s where my full card will be posted, along with any live in-tournament bets from myself or other contributors. Betting markets are fluid, but I’ll note the best number available at the time of this writing.
*Betting lines are accurate at the time of publication.
Noonan’s Sony Open Betting Targets
Russell Henley
I’m due to get whole on Russell Henley at some point, so why not now? Henley had an uninspiring T30 finish at last week’s Tournament of Champions, but his ball striking was as clean as ever, and an uneven four days on the greens kept him out of contention. That sounds about right.
If you remember last year’s event, Hideki Matsuyama caught fire on Sunday afternoon and tracked down Henley, eventually beating him in a playoff. That was one of Henley’s five career T17 or better finishes here, so he’s shown an affinity for this place since winning in his debut back in 2013. He’s also not far removed from his first Tour win in over five years, taking home the WWTC at Mayakoba back in early November, and I’m sure that confidence will help him in the early stages of 2023.
Henley’s game is perfect for these narrow coastal tracks. He ranks inside the top three in both fairways-gained and good-drive percentage over the past 50 rounds, and playing from the fairway is a huge advantage this week. In addition, his approach game is elite, and he’s among the best in the field in strokes gained approach (SG: APP) from 125-200 yards in, which accounts for nearly 70% of the approach shots this week. Seems like a good week to back the Georgia Bulldogs, so I’ll back another one here.
Brian Harman
I’ve been doing this long enough to know or have a sense of a handful of guys I’m going to be interested in on Monday morning when the odds first come out, assuming the price isn’t prohibitive. Brian Harman was on my shortlist this week, and I was expecting anywhere from 22-25/1. Well, I was off. The market opened with a vast array of numbers, including 16/1 on DraftKings and 40/1 on PointsBet. Thank you, PointBet. This is a great example of why it’s crucial to be in our subscriber-only discord so that you can get these notifications as soon as we post a play because those 40s disappeared quickly.
Brian Harman has been on a heater over his past 12 starts. He hasn’t won, but he has two T2 finishes and five T10 or better finishes over that time frame, including his runner-up finish to fellow Georgia Bulldog alum Russell Henley at Mayakoba. Harman ranks third in my statistical model this week, and he’s there in both the long and short-term samples. You can make a fairly strong case that the diminutive 35-year-old southpaw is playing the best golf of his career right now, and I’d still back him if you can find a number north of 20.
Si Woo Kim
Si Woo Kim is a more volatile Russell Henley. He has incredible skill and thrives at the key factors needed for success at Waialae. Si Woo’s a tremendous iron player, ranking tops in the field in the 175-200 yard range over his past 24, 36, and 50 rounds. He’s accurate off the tee and should be able to position himself well for second shots into these small Bermuda greens, and if he misses, he can scramble with the best of them, ranking fourth in SG: ARG over the past 50 rounds.
Kim’s struggles come on the greens. The good news is that most of his career success has come on this putting surface, so this is as good of a spot for him as any. He also finished last season with more consistency, making the cut in his final eight starts and 10 of his past 11, where he finished T15 or better four times. I get why some would be hesitant to back Kim due to his rollercoaster results, but his upside is as good as anyone in this field.
FanDuel Finishing Position Parlay
Tom Kim and Corey Conners – T40 (+103)
Kim and Conners are two of the most popular outright selections this week, and for a good reason. This allows me to gain access to them, but at a significantly reduced cost. I’m still considering adding an outright at the top of the board, and these would be my preferred options. As of this writing, I’m waiting for Thursday tee times, and that will greatly impact what I do.
If Tom Kim is in the afternoon wave on Thursday, his number, currently 11/1 across the board, could get longer before he ever tees off. If one of the other top-tier players like Jordan Spieth or Sungjae Im goes out in the AM wave and gets off to a good start, we’ll see Tom Kim at 14-15/1 before his tournament begins.
This is a relatively new entry to the space, thanks to our friends at FanDuel. Unlike most other books I’m familiar with, FanDuel allows you to parlay finishing position bets. Now, the very premise of the bet is flawed because the expected value is negative since players are competing for the same finishing positions. If the bet is two T40s like this one, when one leg of your parlay finishes above the threshold, there’s now one less spot available in that range for the other leg(s) to also come in. I know the math is terrible. Spare me. But let’s be honest. Some bets are just fun, and these are fun for me.
For the most up-to-date picks, check out my Twitter and subscribe to our Discord at BetspertsGolf.com.
This article is intended for entertainment purposes and adult users only. Call 1-800-GAMBLER if you have a gambling problem.