The first leg of the U.K. swing kicks off at The Renaissance Club in North Berwick, Scotland, for Year 2 of the co-sanctioned Scottish Open. Previously a D.P. World Tour event, the Scottish Open is now equal parts DPWT and PGA Tour, with 75 golfers from each tour participating, designed as a warm-up for next week’s Open Championship.
The course is not a pure links setup with the numerous tree-lined holes, undulations, and heavy rough in play just off the fairways (especially on the back nine). But there is a definitive links-style component to the course. It is off the coastline and subject to windy conditions, and the red fescue turf is firm and tight. This leads to fast-running surfaces on the fairways and aprons leading to the greens, where a lack of bunkers in front encourages the use of the ground game and bump-and-run shots. Many of the course’s 83 bunkers are links-style pot bunkers with deep riveted faces.
As we should expect in Europe, the weather is the course’s best defense. When the wind is quiet, this place can be easily picked by the world’s best. Unfortunately, we’ve seen very different scores come Sunday afternoon when the winds swirl and gust, and last year was no different. A first-round 61 (-9) from Cameron Tringale teased us into thinking a birdie fest was incoming, but eventual winner Xander Schauffele got it done with a winning score of just 7-under par, with the weekend winds playing a huge factor. Early reports call for wind and rain, so join us on Wednesday afternoon for our subscriber-only ‘Office Hours’ for more information before the first group tees off around 2 AM Eastern on Thursday morning.
For the week, I’m focusing on recent form and long-term baseline performance, leaning towards golfers that either have links-style success or have shown well previously at The Renaissance Club. Bonus points for scrambling abilities, which could come into play if the wind is a factor.
For more course details, check out Ron’s course preview. It’s the best in the business, bar none. Here are a few interesting nuggets about The Renaissance Club:
Due to potential windy conditions, The Renaissance Club was built with extreme versatility in tee placements and can play as short as 5,400 yards out to its Scottish Open length of 7,237 yards. While it was a par-71 course in previous editions, it’s now a par-70 course with a unique mixture of ten par-4s, five par-3s, and three par-5s. Overall, it is a hybrid of parkland, heathland, and links-style courses. The layout was carved through a forest of evergreens and has an undulating sand-based terrain that includes ancient rock walls, ocean cliffs, and forested woodlands.
With the greens being so huge and undulating, proximity to the hole and positioning approach shots relative to the pin and leaving an uphill putt is vital. The course favors strong iron players, as seven of the top-15 on the leaderboard had gained at least 4.6 strokes on approach last year.
If greens are firm and the winds increase, the undulating nature of the green surfaces will repel shots into the pot bunkers and runoff areas, producing chips off of tight lies.
My goal with this piece is to touch on the golfers I’m targeting this week. There are millions of ways to bet on this beautiful game, so I’ll share my opinion on the best way to bet on each golfer in my player pool at this week’s event. When pricing out finishing position bets (T5, T10, T20s, etc.), I’ll often lean towards BetMGM even if there’s a better number elsewhere because of MGM’s advantageous dead-heat rules. So know the rules of the books that you’re betting on!
Please take advantage of the subscriber-only Discord feature and community. It’s the best way to get up-to-the-minute lines and advice, and if you need help getting started, please reach out. That’s where my full card will be posted, along with any live in-tournament bets from myself or other contributors.
*Betting lines are accurate when posted in Discord.
Noonan’s Scottish Open Targets
Justin Rose
An uncharacteristically bad around the green week cost Justin Rose a win at the British Masters last time out, but he managed to salvage a T4 finish, his fourth T12 or better in his past five starts.
He’s fifth in my statistical model this week, ranking among the best in this field in both long and short-term approach play, tee-to-green, and around-the-green proximity. He’s hovering around the field average in terms of distance off the tee for the season, but last year’s leaderboard proved that distance isn’t a big factor in who performs well here.
Rose is intimately familiar with link-style layouts and adverse weather, so he’s fit to compete regardless of how the weather report plays out.
Wyndham Clark
This is a disrespectful price for one of the most improved players in the world. I understand the appeal of the Euros with more links-style reps, and I like both Tommy Fleetwood and Tyrrell Hatton this week, but I can’t back them at 20/1. Fleetwood has one win in the past four years, a swing-season Nedbank win back in November, and Hatton has won once in his past 64 starts, an Abu Dhabi win back in January of 2021. Others priced ahead of Clark this week include Justin Thomas, Ludvig Aberg, and Min Woo Lee.
Beyond the appeal of backing someone who’s won twice in his past five starts, Clark is an excellent fit for this course. He’s made tremendous strides in his approach game this season, which has been at the heart of his growth this season. He ranks seventh in this field in SG: APP over the past six months. Distance isn’t a prerequisite for me this week, but having it and being able to use it is always an advantage, which is how Clark attacked last year’s event at The Renaissance Club. He finished T16 after a strong final round, despite hitting just 20 of 52 fairways on the week. He also possesses one of the best short games in the world, which was on full display at LACC and his U.S. Open victory.
Aaron Rai
Aaron Rai’s game is trending in the right direction, and he is mispriced in this field at 90/1. A quick glance at Rai’s strokes-gained snapshot over the past 20 tournaments shows across-the-board improvements, and the results have followed.
Over the past five events, Rai has gained an average of 6.2 strokes per event tee-to-green while putting at nearly a field-average rate, which is a rarity for him. He’s finished inside the top 24 in four of those five events, including a T3 in Canada and a T9 in Detroit his last time out. He’s sixth in my statistical model this week, and his previous success and experience at venues like this while on the DP World Tour certainly don’t hurt his case.
FanDuel Finishing Position Parlays
Viktor Hovland and Matthew Fitzpatrick – T40 (+105)
This is a relatively new entry to the space, thanks to our friends at FanDuel. I played a number of these last season with a 9.85% ROI, so I’ll continue it this season. If it’s not for you, feel free to skip it.
Unlike most other books I’m familiar with, FanDuel allows you to parlay finishing position bets. Now, the very premise of the bet is flawed because the expected value is negative since players are competing for the same finishing positions. If the bet is two T40s like this one, when one leg of your parlay finishes above the threshold, there’s now one less spot available in that range for the other leg(s) to also come in. I know the math is terrible. Spare me. But let’s be honest. Some bets are just fun, and these are fun for me.
Hovland and Fitzpatrick were in consideration for me at the top of the board, but I’m saving bullets for any live bets in case the weather dictates a clear wave advantage etc.
For the most up-to-date picks, check out my Twitter and subscribe to our Discord at BetspertsGolf.com.