Strategy
f684b2f3d4218ee06dad551b3bb2074bTypically, the RSM Classic is a wide-open event that could definitely be won by someone in the lower tier who just happens to catch fire with the putter. The upper tier contains three world-class players in Ludvig Aberg ($10.9K), Cameron Young ($10.6K), and Brian Harman ($10.3K). With seven consecutive top-15 finishes across the globe, Aberg is a must-play. That being said, his wedge-game is one of his weakest areas so I will be underweight on his 20% ownership. With so much win equity and so many better course-fits below him, the long-hitting Young is a complete fade for me. Harman is the starting point of where my interest starts to peak.
As one of the numerous “Georgia guys” in this event, Harman is finishing the best season of his PGA career this week. With an elite wedge game and one of the best putters in this field, Harman should excel at Sea Island where distance off the tee means little. He ranks first on short courses, fourth on coastal courses, and 12th in the fall swing going back to 2020. The Open Championship winner finished runner-up here last year and is my top choice to raise the trophy come Sunday.
Below Harman in the $9K range sit a plethora of “course fit” options that I will be heavily overweight on. I dive in more below on the best metrics to target at Sea Island, but this list includes Corey Conners, Russell Henley, Alex Noren, J.T. Poston and Eric Cole.
Eric Cole is another favorite. Coming off three top-four finishes in his last four starts, Cole continues to churn out top-25 finishes or better almost every week. The exciting part for his upward progress is that because he has such little experience on most of these courses, his continued play each year only adds to his course knowledge. After finishing 39th here last year, with their reliance on wedge play and Bermuda putting, these courses fit his game perfectly and give him one more chance this year to gain his first PGA Tour victory.
Below them, the $8K range has a similar tier of excellent wedge players who can get very hot with the putter, including Denny McCarthy, Adam Svensson, Brendon Todd, Billy Horschel, Keith Mitchell and Alex Smalley.
With superior wedge play and Bermuda putting being a constant theme, Todd once again fits the bill. He is one of the best par-4 players in the field and in proximity from 100-150 yards. His main weakness off the tee is completely mitigated here which allows him to shine on approach and with his short game. And he is even better than Harman in the three special metrics this week, ranking first on short courses, second on coastal courses, and eighth in the fall swing going back to 2020.
While there is some fear of McCarthy needing to shake off some rust considering he hasn’t played since the BMW Championship over two months ago, the odds combined with the setup at Sea Island is too good a fit to pass over. With two top-10s here in his past four trips, his improved wedge game along with his prowess on the greens should allow him to be in the hunt for his first career win.
Other than Kevin Kisner ($6.8K), Patton Kizzire ($6.9K) and Matthew NeSmith ($7.0), there aren’t many value plays of interest. I will say that Taylor Pendrith might my overall favorite play on the entire slate. He has three straight top-15 finishes, and was 15th here last year.
The Course and Important Stats
For the RSM Classic this week, the first statistic in the “Core 4” is a combination of Fairways Gained and Good Drive %. Good Drive percentage helps identify golfers that consistently put themselves in position off the tee to hit the green in regulation, which is really all that’s required at Sea Island. While the Seaside course (where three of the rounds will be played) does have massively wide fairways, there is still danger for golfers who are wild off the tee as a majority of holes do have water and marshland areas in play.
These danger areas have caused Seaside to have the highest rate of penalty shots from off the tee since 2015. Also, most of the 13 “water danger” holes have hazards that affect golfers off the tee instead of on approach. The best players for this metric at the RSM are Russell Henley, Si Woo Kim, Doug Ghim, Denny McCarthy, Brendon Todd and Matthew NeSmith.
The second metric that makes up the “Core 4” this week is my Approach model which emphasizes wedge-to-middle-iron play from 100-175 yards. Since this week ultimately does boil down to a putting contest thanks to wide fairways and large greens, having the skill to attack flags on the correct side of these sloped greens will be key. Over the past two events here, 11 of the top 14 players on the leaderboard gained at least 3.5 strokes on approach. The best “approach” players in the field using my 100-175 yard proximity model are Eric Cole, Chris Kirk, Charley Hoffman, Chesson Hadley, Satoshi Kodaira, Ryan Moore, Russell Henley, and Patton Kizzire.
The third important part of the “Core 4” is the Strokes Gained Putting model. To state it simply, making putts on these grainy TifEagle Bermuda greens will be huge this week. Last year, 38% of all strokes gained were with the flat stick in what essentially becomes a putting contest year after year. Because neither course has many difficulties in the tee-to-green areas, Sea Island does not allow players to separate from the field based on their ball-striking skills. With a focus on past Bermuda putting performance, the best putters in this field are Brendon Todd, Denny McCarthy, Mackenzie Hughes, Ben Taylor, Taylor Montgomery, Chesson Hadley, Brian Gay, Kevin Kisner, Harris English, Maverick McNealy, and Thomas Detry.
Finally, with an average winning score of 18-under par over the past 13 years of this event. The data shows that both the Seaside and Plantation courses used in this event are among the easiest played on Tour in numerous statistical categories. Stats like Birdie or Better %, Scoring Chances Gained (inside 15 feet) and par-4 scoring were combined into one “Scoring” metric. The best players in this model include Ludvig Aberg, Russell Henley, Brian Harman, Eric Cole, Corey Conners, Alex Smalley, J.T. Poston, Sam Ryder, and Adam Svensson.
Top 10 Most Important Stats
*In order of importance.
- SG: Approach (100-175 yds)
- SG: Putting (Bermuda)
- Good Drive %
- Scoring Chances Gained
- Fairways Gained
- Birdie or Better %
- Par 4 Scoring
- Par 5 Scoring
- SG: Comp Courses
- SG: Short Courses
RSM Classic – DraftKings Picks
Each week along with presenting my top choices for each of the categories below, I will include each of the pertinent stats for the specific event that comes directly from my model. Except for the “Core Plays,” which most weeks will typically be somewhat on the chalky side, I will include at least one player I am positive on who is forecast to be lower-owned and who will present a good pivot from some of the higher-owned options. In essence, the players you see below make up the majority of my player pool for this event.
Core Plays
Upper-Tier Plays
Mid-Range Plays
Value Plays
