2023 Rocket Mortgage Classic – DraftKings Picks

*In case you missed it, here is an excellent discussion on strategies, and favorite plays for every pricing tier for the DraftKings slate.

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2023 Rocket Mortgage Classic – Strategy

I’ll keep this short since I just got off the course and it’s been a long day of analyzing both it and the players competing. I have two clear fades at the top of the board, Collin Morikawa and Keegan Bradley. I have no faith in Morikawa being able to make the amount of putts needed to contend this week. And at $10.6K you need him to win to cover that pricetag. Also, Bradley basically just won “his” Superbowl last week with his victory at the Travelers Championship. Keegan is a very emotional player who got into Detroit later in the week than most. I don’t think he will have the focus necessary to even make the cut. He also plays -0.59 shots below his “non-birdie fest” strokes gained baseline.

In such a volatile event and on a course that fails to effectively separate the elite players from the lower tier, I am also expanding my player pool from the typical number of 45 to around 55. It is so hard to predict who might get hot with the putter and have a career week. The gameplan is to spread around ownership up top with a higher rate going to Rickie Fowler, Tom Kim and Sungjae Im. There is so much value and upside in the $7K range that I will have heavy exposure to many, but especially Taylor Moore, Austin Eckroat, Joseph Bramlett, Thomas Detry and Adam Schenk.

2023 Rocket Mortgage Classic – Narratives and Important Metrics

Unique Model Weights

SG: Easy Scoring Courses
SG: Weak Fields
SG: Driver Heavy Courses

In low-scoring birdie-fests such as will occur at Detroit Golf Club this week, past history at this event tells us that the recipe for success is quite simple. Because the course does not really penalize poor shots, and players are free to bomb away with driver and attack flags on approach, there is not much separation between great and below-average tee-to-green play. This, in essence, boils the tournament down to a putting contest.

That being said, driving distance presents a huge edge off the tee. The top of last year’s leaderboard was a veritable group of bombers off the tee including Tony Finau, Taylor Pendrith, Patrick Cantlay and Cameron Young. It’s definitely an angle of attack to select bombers this week.

With golfers unable to separate themselves that much off the tee due to the lack of any penalty for wayward drives, Detroit Golf Club is a definite second-shot course. Over 46% of approach shots come from under 150 yards, which is one of the highest wedge/short-iron rates on Tour.

With so many scoring holes here combined with a Greens in Regulation (GIR) rate from the fairway at well over 80%, proximity to the hole on these Donald Ross greens will also be key this week. With the majority of approach shots coming from the short iron or wedge range, players that are strongest in that area will have a sizeable advantage.

In such an easy scoring environment, more golfers will be able to contend on the leaderboard. Combine this with the fact that none of the upper-tier golfers stand out above the others and this allows for a wide range of players who have the all-important combination this week of gaining on approach along with the ability to make putts in bunches.

Speaking of the stars at the top of the board, one of the narratives is that each of these players have struggled to win tournaments. Whether it’s Justin Thomas, Collin Morikawa, Rickie Fowler or Sungjae Im, this week presents each with a chance to break out of their win “slump”.

Related to putting, these birdie-fest type of events allow almost any player that gets hot with the flat stick to have a chance to contend. Putting on these greens is not easy. While these Donald Ross surfaces have lost some of their natural movement over the decades, many still feature back-to-front sloping which is typical of his designs. Over the past four years, they have been rated as the 11th most difficult greens on which to gain strokes putting. And yet, close to 40% of all strokes gained on this course come with the flat stick. That is well above the typical average of 35%. The undulated areas around some of the pin placements make putting even tougher from inside five feet averaging as the 6th toughest.

Most Important Stats For Success at Detroit Golf Club

*In order of importance

Birdie or Better %
SG: Approach
SG: Putting
Good Drive %
Par 5 Scoring
Driving Distance
SG: Easy Scoring Courses
Proximity: 50-125 yds
Opportunities Gained
Par 4 Scoring: 400-450

Weather Forecast – Detroit, Michigan

Rocket Mortgage Classic – DraftKings Picks

Each week along with presenting my top choices for each of the categories below, I will include each of the pertinent stats for the specific event that comes directly from my model. Except for the “Core Plays,” which most weeks will typically be somewhat on the chalky side, I will include at least one player I am positive on who is forecast to be lower-owned and who will present a good pivot from some of the higher-owned options. In essence, the players you see below make up the majority of my player pool for this event.