With the world’s best golfers already in the area after last week’s Masters, most are making the short drive from Augusta, Georgia, to Hilton Head, South Carolina, and Harbour Town Golf Links, one of the many Pete Dye-design tracks on Tour.
After two years with little to no wind and record-low scoring, things got back to normal last season, with Jordan Spieth knocking Patrick Cantlay off in a playoff with a winning score of 13-under-par. Harbour Town couldn’t be further from last week’s walk around Augusta National. It’s often described as quirky and suffocating, with narrow sightlines when standing on the tee box. Another Pete Dye design staple is the forced layups and doglegs to minimize distance and reward accuracy. The putting surfaces are difficult to hit, not only because they’re the second-smallest on Tour but also because a lot of second shots are impacted by dangling palmetto tree limbs, even for those in the fairway. Scrambling matters because missed greens are inevitable, but it’s one of the easier places on Tour to get up and down because the course is so flat, and the small greens make for fewer 50+ feet lag putt opportunities.
With this being an elevated event, the field looks quite different from your standard RBC Heritage. Looking back at the 2020 year, when everyone showed up because they were just coming out of the Covid-induced hiatus, it’s important to remember that it was played in June versus early April. In June, the Bermudagrass is active everywhere on the course, but in April, golfers are playing on overseeded ryegrass and putting on Bermuda that’s overseeded with Poa Trivialis.
This week’s player archetype for success starts with elite approach play with a focus on Good Drive%, a hybrid stat combining driving accuracy and greens in regulation. Also, the winner will either putt lights out or scramble their proverbial ass off all week. Probably both. This setup brings more golfers into play, with four of the last six winners being 80/1 or longer heading into the week. Designated fields certainly change the calculus a bit with that trend, but it’s something to note.
For more course details, check out Ron’s course preview. It’s the best in the business, bar none. Here’s an important tidbit about Harbour Town:
Characterized by numerous doglegs, overhanging trees, a wide array of devilish bunkers, and minuscule greens, Harbour Town Golf Links is a coastal par-71 course that measures 7,191 yards.
There are numerous reasons the course has averaged over par since 2016. With trees being everywhere, drives off-the-tee that are not hit to the proper location on the fairway could be met with hanging branches on the following approach shot. Water comes into play on nine holes, with six of those affecting approach shots. Also, the second-smallest greens on Tour combined with a course that is exposed to the wind from the Atlantic coast can cause GIR% numbers to shrink rapidly on blustery days.
Players will need to be creative and ready to hit a variety of differing-shaped shots into the greens. Harbour Town is the ninth toughest course to gain strokes on approach and the fifth toughest to gain on shots from greater than 150 yards. With 48% of approaches coming between 150-200 yards, this week will be a true test of iron play.
My goal with this piece is to touch on the golfers I’m targeting this week. There are millions of ways to bet on this beautiful game, so I’ll share my opinion on the best way to bet on each golfer in my player pool at this week’s event. When pricing out finishing position bets (T5, T10, T20s, etc.), I’ll often lean towards BetMGM even if there’s a better number elsewhere because of MGM’s advantageous dead-heat rules. So know the rules of the books that you’re betting on!
Please take advantage of the Discord feature and community. It’s the best way to get up-to-the-minute lines and advice, and if you need help getting started, please reach out. That’s where my full card will be posted, along with any live in-tournament bets from myself or other contributors. Betting markets are fluid, but I’ll note the best number available at the time of this writing.
*Betting lines are accurate when posted in Discord.
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Noonan’s RBC Heritage Betting Targets
Xander Schauffele
We don’t always think of Xander Schauffele as an elite iron player, but he deserves more credit when it comes to his exceptional and improved approach play. Year over year, he’s up 0.32 strokes per round on approach and ranks first on Tour in GIR% from 150-200 yards out over the past 12 months. That’s a recipe for success at Harbour Town. He was fourth in SG: T2G last week and fifth in SG: APP, and I was encouraged by his accuracy off the tee after a couple of un-Xander-like performances at Riviera and Bay Hill earlier in the year. Schauffele found 13 of 14 fairways in Sunday’s final round at Augusta.
We know the short game is elite, so if Scauffele is able to position himself well off the tee this week, I love his chances. I got him at 29 early on Monday morning, but the 25s still out in the market are still appealing.
Tom Kim
I think last week’s Masters debut for Tom Kim should be considered a successful one. The 20-year-old finished T16 on the week and was seventh in both driving accuracy and GIR%. That’s also where Kim ranks in both Good Drive% and Fairways Gained over the past 24 rounds.
Harbour Town, and almost all other Pete Dye designs, are the type of setups that I expect Tom Kim to thrive at. Positional, station-to-station golf that rewards accuracy and elite iron play. That was the hallmark of Kim’s 2022 run, including his wins at TPC Summerlin and Sedgefield. I like the player and course fit, and I love the price.
Russell Henley
This is a great example of why being in our subscriber-only Discord has its advantages. Coming off of a strong performance and T4 at Augusta last week, Russell Henley opened up at 75/1 in a few different spots on Monday morning. As of this writing, the longest number I can find on Henley is 45/1. Now, I can’t pay my bills with that closing line value, but it certainly helps confirm that I’m on the right side of the play.
Henley had an uncharacteristic three-start hiccup earlier this season, underwhelming in Phoenix, Riviera, and Bay Hill. He lost strokes on approach in all three starts, and you have to go back to June of 2017 to find another example of Henley losing strokes in three consecutive events. However, since Bay Hill, Henley has three straight T19 or better finishes, gaining strokes on approach in all three events, and should come to Harbour Town with all sorts of confidence after last week’s Masters. He led last week’s field in driving accuracy and leads all golfers in this week’s field in fairways gained over the past 50 rounds. 45/1 is probably fair value, but make sure you’re in Discord for those early Monday A.M. plays.
- To Win: 75/1 on DraftKings
- Top 20: +188 BetMGM
FanDuel Finishing Position Parlay
Patrick Cantlay and Sungjae Im – T30 (+150)
This is a relatively new entry to the space, thanks to our friends at FanDuel. I played a number of these last season with a 9.85% ROI, so I’ll continue it this season. If it’s not for you, feel free to skip it.
Unlike most other books I’m familiar with, FanDuel allows you to parlay finishing position bets. Now, the very premise of the bet is flawed because the expected value is negative since players are competing for the same finishing positions. If the bet is two T30s like this one, when one leg of your parlay finishes above the threshold, there’s now one less spot available in that range for the other leg(s) to also come in. I know the math is terrible. Spare me. But let’s be honest. Some bets are just fun, and these are fun for me.
As of this writing, FanDuel hasn’t posted their T40 prices yet, so I’ll go to the T30 market and back two of this week’s more popular outright selections. The outright price on Patrick Cantlay is just way too short for me, but his game fits Harbour Town so well, so I understand why folks are bullish. The same can be said for Sungjae Im, and his price in the low-30s is exactly why pulling the trigger on Cantlay at 12 to 15 is so difficult. I expect both players to be in the mix this weekend, so the top 30 gives us a little wiggle room for underperforming expectations.
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