*In case you missed it, here is an excellent discussion on strategies, and favorite plays for every pricing tier for the DraftKings slate. My thoughts are fully encapsulated here in the show. If anyone has specific player questions, I’ll be checking Discord all night until lock.
This week presents many variables for building lineups on DraftKings. From the unique course to the unpredictability of the weather there are many different paths to take. With DraftKings extending the lowest of tiers into the $5K range the amount of ways to build lineups is endless. My focus this week is three-fold and is heavily weighted in my model. It is to target players strong off the tee, who have past success in majors, and to a lesser extent, on links courses.
Don’t forget that for the Open Championship it is the top-70 and ties that make it through the cut-line and into the weekend. With so many lower-tier players in this field who are lesser-ranked from the DP World Tour or who qualified to get in, you can comfortably cross off around 55 players. That leaves around 100 players battling to make it through to the weekend. The rate of getting all six golfers through the cut-line should be much higher this week. This means you will need to take a few more risks with lineup construction. Personally, I am taking both a “stars and scrubs” approach and using balanced builds with lesser owned golfers mixed in to get different with my lineups.
I will say that after his 3rd place finish in his links warmup last week at the Scottish Open, Scottie Scheffler week is finally upon us. He continues this amazing run of with seven consecutive top-5 finishes and 19 straight top-12s, I’m all in on Scheffler this week. For more strategies and thoughts on the all the different players I like this week, check out the DFS show which is listed above.
Finally, don’t forget about including players in your pool who have high upside. These are players who could easily miss the cut but could also finish in the top-10/20. Some examples that come to mind include Cameron Young ($9.0K), Max Homa ($8.4K), and Si Woo Kim ($7.3K).
2023 Open Championship – The Course and What to Look For
Every year, the Open Championship is very challenging to properly model due to so many DP World Tour players in the field who simply lack the necessary sample size of data. Similar to the Scottish Open last week, another problem with running the normal model this week is that the Open is played on a links course and typically in more difficult weather conditions. Links golf is a completely different animal from parkland-style golf. So the model this week places a heavy emphasis on the primary Strokes Gained stats, along with recent and long-term form, past history in majors, and on links courses, and incorporates DataGolf’s “Top 10%” ratings.
As is the case with any major championship, tee-to-green form, including Off the Tee, Approach, and Around the Green are the most important stats to weigh. With six of the driving holes having out-of-bounds in close proximity to the fairway along with an abundance of penalizing fairway bunkers near the landing zones, off-the-tee performance may decide who wins the 151st Open Championship.
So while gaining strokes with distance is possible, with fairways not being that wide (32-yard average in the landing zones), along with the variety of hazards and fescue rough coming into play from errant drives or excessive roll-out, it will be like trying to thread a needle on some holes. The downside to taking “less than driver” off the tee is that laying back places more stress on long irons and the short game. With winds calm on Tuesday morning, Collin Morikawa said, “Today with no wind I was hitting 3-iron, 3-wood, driver. I hit every club off the tee. It’s going to be a mix. It really is how much you want to take on the bunkers, how aggressive you want to be off the tee.”
For players not accustomed to links-style golf, they need to quickly adjust to the small pot bunkers that litter the fairways and almost function like vacuums that suck up balls as they run along the ground. Learning to get the ball to stop is something that comes with experience and why very few first-time links players have much initial success.
Royal Liverpool definitely asks different questions of players off-the-tee than they typically see each week on Tour. Both big and small misses will be penalized. Even compared to St. Andrews last year where players could swing freely with aggression on most holes, this year will be all about keeping the ball in play. Indiscriminate drivers who frequently spray the ball will not have a chance to see the weekend. Strategically sound drivers who have proven fairway accuracy and who have had success on other “less than driver” courses like TPC Sawgrass should be heavily targeted this week. Said Abraham Ancer when asked what the key to success was this week, “Avoid the bunkers and stay in the fairways. That’s it.” Driving accuracy off the tee will be the most important metric I am targeting this week.
As far as the approach game, with elevated green complexes that are surrounded by all sorts of bunkering in and around the greens, and that are smaller than normal for a links course, Royal Liverpool can be a real challenge on the second shot. With so many forced layups off the tee, around 50-65% of shots into the green will be from greater than 175 yards. Crosswinds will have a definite effect on many holes. Many of the greens have narrow entrances with bunkers on both sides forcing players who are using the ground game to advance the ball with accuracy as well. It also should be noted that special for this week’s Championship, edges of greens were removed in order to provide more pin positions. This creates even more runoff in almost every direction for players who are missing their target.
With many of Hoylake’s greens perched well above the surrounding areas, recovery shots will be difficult depending on the lie. Pot bunkers and hollows surround the flanks of most of the greens. The pot bunkers have near-vertical stack sod faces and the depth of some will be very penalizing. According to NBC analyst Brad Faxon the bottoms of the bunkers have been flattened, and with the sand being so soft, the ball gets depressed very easily into the rake grooves and also tends to roll near the lips creating near-impossible recovery shots when taking aim at the flag. Expertise out of the bunkers will be incredibly important.
As Jordan Spieth said earlier in the week, the biggest challenge around the greens is learning how to play out of the collection areas along with the need to hit higher bunker shots over the riveted faces. Club selection around the greens will also be key as players could use three different clubs for the same shot and will need to use creativity in playing the best option along with being committed to each shot.
While they have many subtle dips and humps and hidden burrows, these are some of the flattest greens at any Open venue. As is typical for links courses, green speeds are kept at a much slower pace to account for potentially windy conditions that could play havoc with the ball. Faxon said the greens are running at around 10.5 on the stimp-meter and are playing very smooth considering they are a combination of fescue and bentgrass. Lag putting and adjusting to slower speeds will be another important skill for players to have this week.
Most Important Stats For Success at Royal Liverpool Golf Club
*In order of importance
- Fairways Gained
- SG: Approach
- Scrambling
- SG: Links Courses
- SG: ARG/Sand Saves
- Proximity 175+
- Par 4 Scoring: 450+
- Total Driving
- Birdie or Better %
- SG: Putting/3-putt Avoidance
Weather Forecast – Hoylake, Wirral, England
The Open Championship – DraftKings Picks
Each week along with presenting my top choices for each of the categories below, I will include each of the pertinent stats for the specific event that comes directly from my model. Except for the “Core Plays,” which most weeks will typically be somewhat on the chalky side, I will include at least one player I am positive on who is forecast to be lower-owned and who will present a good pivot from some of the higher-owned options. In essence, the players you see below make up the majority of my player pool for this event.
Core Plays
Upper-Tier Plays
Mid-Range Plays
Value Plays
