2023 FedEx St. Jude Championship – Round 4 Betting and Showdown Picks

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After another excellent round at 4-under, It’s hard to argue against Lucas Glover as the best player in the world at the moment. As crazy as that sounds considering he was just ranked 112th in the FedEx Cup standing a few weeks ago, for a journeyman player, he has been on an all-time heater. That being said, +210 is a steep price to pay when there are four other players with win equity within three shots of his lead. Let’s also not forget that annually, TPC Southwind has the most “water balls” and double bogeys on Tour. All it takes is one bad swing for Glover’s final round to go haywire. While Taylor Moore (+400) is only one shot behind, both Max Homa and Jordan Spieth have the best value to win at +900. Tommy Fleetwood (+400) is two back and has been doing most of his damage with the putter, gaining almost six strokes thus far. While I think Glover has a great chance to hold the lead if he can stay out of the water tomorrow, Jordan Spieth at +900 would be my pick to win. With the heat index approaching 110 degrees tomorrow, the Texas native is plenty used to the sweltering heat and has the best combination of ball-striking, short game, and experience to come from behind tomorrow.

Weather Forecast – Memphis, Tennessee

Round 4 Betting Matchups Model

*Strokes Gained Rating (SG RTG) is the key metric that combines all the weighted categories in the model. Some players (or matchups) may not be listed due to not having enough sample size data.