2023 Farmers Insurance Open – Round 4 Betting and Showdown Picks

Final Round Thoughts

As Jon Rahm once again thrashed his way up the leaderboard for a second consecutive round, the inevitable appears to be just that. Three wins in a row. Playing on his beloved course of Torrey Pines. On a historic run. Who is going to stop him? Sam Ryder certainly isn’t. Give credit to Ryder for sinking par-putt after par-putt and for holding the lead for three straight rounds on one of the most challenging courses in the world. But we all know it’s just a matter of holes into Saturday’s final round when the lion will overtake the gazelle.

Forget what the world rankings say. Rahm is the best player in the world. And I don’t want to hear about Rory McIlroy. Credit him for being a strong supporter of the PGA Tour and the new elevated events, but we are an entire month into the year and Rory has yet to show up. When the PGA Tour could have used his presence, he instead chose Dubai to make his only appearance.

Rahm is currently a +120 favorite to win again on Saturday. While his third straight victory does seem imminent, don’t sleep on one Tony Finau. As I laid out below, Finau has been one of the best players in the world over the past year in the final round. There is not much value at +700 considering he is two shots behind Rahm and four behind Ryder, but if he can come out early and sink putts as he did on Friday, Finau can light up the scoreboard with the best of them.

Over the past year, Tony Finau is gaining an average of 2.67 strokes in the final round of an event

He has not lost strokes in a final rd since May

In his last 20 final rds, he has gained 2+ strokes in 15 of them

He has never lost strokes in 7 career final rds at Torrey Pines
— Ron Klos (@PGASplits101) January 28, 2023

Weather Forecast – Torrey Pines

Post-Round 3 Player Interviews

Post Round 3 Player Quotes…

-Rahm has no reason to believe he can't win again tomorrow and doesn't care if he's not ranked #1
-Finau's putting adjustments paid off today
-Ryder has eaten the same meal every night this week. Chimichurri steak, sweet potatoes, broccoli and rice pic.twitter.com/YB2pym6POj
— Ron Klos (@PGASplits101) January 28, 2023

Round 4 Betting Matchups Model

*Strokes Gained Rating (SG RTG) is the key metric that combines all the weighted categories in the model. Some players (or matchups) may not be listed due to not having enough sample size data. With the North Course not having ShotLink, the data is based on only two measured rounds.