Strategy
f684b2f3d4218ee06dad551b3bb2074bAlthough it could change and should be monitored, there does not appear to be any weather-wave advantages at the moment. In my view, the recipe for success is quite simple this week. My player pool will be filled with those players who rank highly in the metrics included in my model with a specific focus on ball-strikers who can putt on bermuda greens and who have shown past success on coastal courses and in windy conditions. Yet, as all of us know who follow golf, predicting success in a sport this volatile is never easy. Due to the weak field and all of the variance, this is definitely a week to play much lighter.
As for lineup construction, with the lower price ranges looking rather bleak this week, I am sticking to a more balanced approach. With pricing tough on both sites, I’m not focusing as much on ownership this week and, considering the course and the weather, am just playing the best golfers according to the model. When comparing the two sites, the best values on DraftKings include Alex Smalley, Mark Hubbard, Brandon Wu, Troy Merritt, Davis Riley, Adam Long, and Sam Bennett.
The Course and Important Stats
When looking at the first four editions of this event at Port Royal Golf Course we can see that the winners (Brendon Todd, Brian Gay, Lucas Herbert, and Seamus Power) have consisted of four elite putters, three fairway finders (Todd, Gay, and Power) and a bomber-type in Herbert who is also an excellent wind-player. All four players also have excellent track records on coastal courses that typically have windy conditions.
I fully believe that putting matters this week more than the average event. Depending on the winds, the green speeds at Port Royal have been as slow as a 9 on the stimp meter but typically run around 10. While there won’t be enough scoring to call it a putting contest, performance on the greens is much more important because Port Royal is a course that does not allow elite ball-strikers to separate themselves from the field. While we still want to target quality ball-strikers, golfers who putt well on bermuda greens should also be strongly considered.
With Port Royal being the shortest course in the Tour rotation, it makes sense that the “plodder” types who can control their ball flight would tend to have the most success here. With the wind being more of a factor in 2022, some of the bigger hitters like Lucas Herbert and Taylor Pendrith, who have more distance off the tee, can have success here as well. Thus, any type of player is live to win this week.
Related to Port Royal being such a short course, successful wedge play from 75-125 yards will also be paramount this week. Among the best wedge players in the field include Lucas Glover, Mark Hubbard, Alex Smalley, Davis Riley, and Brandon Wu.
The 2-inch bermuda rough at Port Royal is not that penal, and with greens typically soft due to recent rainfall, players should be able to hold their ball on the greens. That of course is dependent on the biggest x-factor this week – the strength of the wind. While winds are forecast to be calm on Thursday, Friday through Sunday has sustained winds between 13-20 mph with gusts to 25 mph.
That being said, the best “wind players” are usually the best ball-strikers who have a knack for consistently finding the middle of the clubface with their irons. I also believe certain players are more talented than others at playing in windy conditions. Whether that edge comes from more past experiences in the wind (perhaps where they grew up), or they are simply just better at flighting and shaping their ball in blustery conditions, it will be interesting to see how it plays out this week.
Top 10 Most Important Stats
- SG: APP
- SG: Coastal Courses/Windy Conditions
- SG: Putting (Bermuda)
- Good Drive %
- Scrambling
- Birdie or Better %
- Bogeys Avoided
- Fairways Gained
- SG: Weak Fields/Short Courses
- Proximity 75-150 yds
Bermuda Championship – DraftKings Picks
Each week along with presenting my top choices for each of the categories below, I will include each of the pertinent stats for the specific event that comes directly from my model. Except for the “Core Plays,” which most weeks will typically be somewhat on the chalky side, I will include at least one player I am positive on who is forecast to be lower-owned and who will present a good pivot from some of the higher-owned options. In essence, the players you see below make up the majority of my player pool for this event.
Core Plays
Upper-Tier Plays
Mid-Range Plays
Value Plays
Photo by Jed Jacobsohn/Getty Images