With only two events remaining in the “FedExCup Fall”, the Tour heads to the island of Bermuda for the fifth consecutive year of the Bermuda Championship. Located on high ground overlooking the Atlantic Ocean on the western shore of Southampton Parish, Port Royal Golf Course is one of the world’s most scenic island courses. Known as one of Jack Nicklaus’ all-time favorites, it is a government-run municipal course designed by Robert Trent Jones in 1970.
One of the shortest courses played in the PGA Tour’s annual rotation, it is characterized by its hilly terrain, challenging par-3s, and the seemingly ever-present threat of windy conditions for much of the course. The island has had a challenging leadup to this tournament with more than six hurricanes or tropical storms passing through the area in the last three months.
While any type of player can win here, past winners have included some of the best putters on the Tour, including the likes of Seamus Power, Lucas Herbert, Brendon Todd, and Brian Gay. Fairways are narrow and wedge opportunities are plentiful. This leads to numerous short to mid-range birdie putts that players will need to consistently make in order to be in contention.
The Field
Even with World No. 45 Adam Scott scheduled to make his tournament debut, the field for the Bermuda Championship is one of the lowest ranked in years. Outside of Scott and No. 32 Lucas Glover, there are no other players ranked inside the top 50. In fact, there are only ten players total that rank inside the top 100.
Nick Hardy, Ben Griffin, Alex Smalley, Mackenzie Hughes, Luke List, and Thomas Detry are all currently ranked inside “The Next 10” on the FedExCup Fall standings and are all set to compete in Bermuda this week. Players ranked 51-60 in the standings (which will be finalized after the RSM Classic) will qualify for next year’s AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am and The Genesis Invitational. Numerous golfers this week are also around the top-125 bubble, which determines playing status for 2024. Players near this bubble who are headed to Port Royal include Chesson Hadley, Doug Ghim, C.T. Pan, Erik van Rooyen, Marty Dou, Jimmy Walker, Patton Kizzire, and Harry Higgs.
No matter the field strength, this is still a full-fledged 132-player Tour event with 500 FedExCup points and a purse of $6.5 million, with the winner’s share coming in at $1,170,000. There will be a 36-hole cut after Friday’s round with the top 65 players and ties making it to play the weekend.
Betting Strategies
When looking at the first four editions of this event at Port Royal Golf Course we can see that the winners (Brendon Todd, Brian Gay, Lucas Herbert, and Seamus Power) have consisted of four elite putters, three fairway finders (Todd, Gay, and Power) and a bomber-type in Herbert who is also an excellent wind-player. All four players also have excellent track records on coastal courses that typically have windy conditions.
I fully believe that putting matters this week more than the average event. Depending on the winds, the green speeds at Port Royal have been as slow as a 9 on the stimp meter but typically run around 10. While there won’t be enough scoring to call it a putting contest, performance on the greens is much more important because Port Royal is a course that does not allow elite ball-strikers to separate themselves from the field. While we still want to target quality ball-strikers, golfers who putt well on bermuda greens should also be strongly considered.
With Port Royal being the shortest course in the Tour rotation, it makes sense that the “plodder” types who can control their ball flight would tend to have the most success here. With the wind being more of a factor in 2022, some of the bigger hitters like Lucas Herbert and Taylor Pendrith, who have more distance off the tee, can have success here as well. Thus, any type of player is live to win this week.
Related to Port Royal being such a short course, successful wedge play from 75-125 yards will also be paramount this week. Among the best wedge players in the field include Lucas Glover, Mark Hubbard, Alex Smalley, Davis Riley, and Brandon Wu.
The 2-inch bermuda rough at Port Royal is not that penal, and with greens typically soft due to recent rainfall, players should be able to hold their ball on the greens. That of course is dependent on the biggest x-factor this week – the strength of the wind. While winds are forecast to be calm on Thursday, Friday through Sunday has sustained winds between 13-20 mph with gusts to 25 mph.
That being said, the best “wind players” are usually the best ball-strikers who have a knack for consistently finding the middle of the clubface with their irons. I also believe certain players are more talented than others at playing in windy conditions. Whether that edge comes from more past experiences in the wind (perhaps where they grew up), or they are simply just better at flighting and shaping their ball in blustery conditions, it will be interesting to see how it plays out this week.
Top 10 Most Important Stats
- SG: APP
- SG: Coastal Courses/Windy Conditions
- SG: Putting (Bermuda)
- Good Drive %
- Scrambling
- Birdie or Better %
- Bogeys Avoided
- Fairways Gained
- SG: Weak Fields/Short Courses
- Proximity 75-150 yds
Bermuda Championship – Final Model
In each preview article and on Discord, I present my final model, which gives a detailed player ranking of the most important stats and splits for the week. My modeling is built around the PGA’s Strokes Gained data, which is divided into SG: Off the Tee (OTT), SG: Approach (APP), SG: Around the Green (ARG), and SG: Putting (P). Learn more about Strokes Gained and why it can be so useful in analyzing the past and predicting future performance. Many of the individual splits will be posted on my Twitter feed, with the final model exclusively published here for subscribers.
Outright Betting Selections
*Lines accurate at the time of publication.
Thomas Detry +2000
Throughout his young career, Detry has thrived in similar tournaments with conditions he will face this week. He is third in my model on short courses, second on coastal courses, and fifth in events during the Fall Swing going back to 2020. He is also an excellent wind player.
(1.20u) BetRivers
Alex Smalley +2500
While Smalley can be maddingly inconsistent at times thanks to a cold putter, his ceiling is very high. He is one of the best ball-strikers in this field and finished 11th and 12th in his two previous trips to Bermuda. Similar to Detry, he ranks seventh on short courses, sixth on coastal courses, and second on the Fall Swing. With two top-10 finishes in the past five months, this weak field provides the perfect opportunity for him to collect his first PGA Tour win.
(0.96u) DraftKings
Brandon Wu +5500
Wu is also golfer who plays his best on easier scoring, coastal tracks. This would include his 3rd place finish at the Mexico Open and his runner-up finish at Pebble Beach from earlier this year. While his putter has been the main culprit for his lack of top-end finishes over the past few months, he has thrived on the slower nature of coastal greens like he will face this week. Similar to the course in Mexico last week, this is a perfect event for him to put it all together and capture his first PGA Tour victory.
(0.43u) BetMGM
Adam Long +7500
Long made history at last week’s World Wide Technology Championship becoming one of the few players in PGA Tour history to hit every single fairway. He finished 23rd last week and has three consecutive top-35 finishes. He is one of the best putters in the field and ranks in the top 15 on both short courses and during the Fall Swing.
(0.32u) FanDuel
Finishing Position Picks – all BetRivers
Top 20
- Adam Scott +110 (1u)
- Brendon Todd +110 (1u)
- Thomas Detry +110 (1u)
- Akshay Bhatia +120 (1u)
- Alex Smalley +125 (1u)
Top 30
- Brandon Wu +110 (1u)
- Dylan Wu +110 (1u)
- Justin Lower +138 (1u)
- Adam Long +150 (1u)
Top 40
- Sam Bennett +110 (1u)
- Russell Knox +125 (1u)
- Kelly Kraft +138 (1u)
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Photo by Raj Mehta/Getty Images