*In case you missed it, here is an excellent discussion on strategies, and favorite plays for every pricing tier for the DraftKings slate. My thoughts are fully encapsulated here in the show. If anyone has specific player questions, I’ll be checking Discord all night until lock.
The Course and Important Stats
There’s some strategy nuggets in the DFS Preview above, but if multi-entering lineups this week it’s imperative to find a way to be different, whether that is leaving money on the table or playing multiple single-digit owned players in the same lineup. I go into this more on the show but there is a group of players who are under 10% projected ownership that have underperformed recently and have extremely high upside on a course like Olympia Fields. I will be playing them a ton and this is how I would rank them – Cameron Young (8.5), Sam Burns (8.4), Tony Finau (8.3), Matt Fitzpatrick (8.0), Sahith Theegala (7.0) and Wyndham Clark (8.8).
with Olympia Fields playing more like a U.S. Open test, there is a very specific route to success this week. And with only 50 players in the field along with limited course history, it is a rather narrow pool of players from which to choose. The four most important metrics in my Core 4 sub-model this week include Total Driving, SG: Approach, Scrambling, and SG: Difficult Scoring Courses.
The most important stat for me this week is Total Driving which balances accuracy and distance off the tee. With the course playing softer and longer due to the recent rainfall, I would favor distance over accuracy. While the North Course most assuredly places a premium of accuracy off the tee thanks to the tight tree-lined corridors, penal fairway bunkers, and thick rough, its length and advantage presented to “total drivers” of the ball is one that allows the longer hitters to find an edge.
The top of the leaderboard from 2020 reads like a “Who’s Who” of elite total drivers with names like Rahm, Dustin Johnson, Joaquin Niemann, Hideki Matsuyama, Tony Finau, Jason Kokrak and Matt Fitzpatrick. That being said, the bouncy fairways are typically firm enough to provide plenty of roll-out which allows shorter hitters to still compete. That may not be the case this week with all of the recent rainfall.
The bottom line is that with a driving accuracy rate of 48%, everyone will be missing fairways. Whenever that is the case, typically distance takes priority over accuracy since longer players will be able to take shorter clubs out of the rough when approaching these smaller greens. In 2020, 75.3% of all tee shots were hit with driver.
Approach performance will always be high on the list and this week is no different. One of Willie Park Jr’s signature features was his tabletop greens. “The greens here, for example, are for the most part raised up on plateaus and drop off sharply at the edges. That’s the way Park designed them, and that’s the way they play today.” said Mungeam.
Not only do they have sharp run-off areas but they are one of the toughest greens to hit as evidenced by a GIR rate of only 58%. In 2020, players that found the rough off the tee had little chance of hacking it onto the green with only a 40% GIR rate. The deep fairway bunkers were only slightly easier with a 46% clip. Tiger Woods found five fairway bunkers in 2020 and didn’t find the green on any of his approach shots. At an average square footage of 5,238 yards, they rank as the 13th smallest on Tour. They are also known for their sharp undulations and tough pin placements. Players will need to be highly accurate on approach in order to find the correct quadrant so they are not left above the hole or putting across ridges.
With such a low GIR%, short-game skills are an important tool in the bag this week. Players with elite scrambling skills and creativity on these treacherous green complexes should be able to gain some separation on the field. Scrambling from the rough as well as from short grass areas below these tabletop greens were much tougher than average back in 2020.
Finally, I’ll be looking for players who have performed well in recent years on other difficult-scoring courses. This includes most of the courses that hosted major tournaments since 2020 as well as others that played very difficult with similar characteristics such as length, longer rough and stronger fields like we will see this week. Some examples would include Bay Hill, Riviera, Muirfield Village and Quail Hollow.
Most Important Stats For Success at Olympia Fields Country Club
*In order of importance
- Total Driving
- SG: Approach
- Scrambling (Tough Greens)
- Proximity: 125-175
- SG: Par 4
- Bogey Avoidance
- Good Drive % (Long Rough)
- SG: Difficult Scoring Courses
- SG: Putting
- Driving Distance
Weather Forecast – Olympia Fields, Illinois
BMW Championship – DraftKings Picks
Each week along with presenting my top choices for each of the categories below, I will include each of the pertinent stats for the specific event that comes directly from my model. Except for the “Core Plays,” which most weeks will typically be somewhat on the chalky side, I will include at least one player I am positive on who is forecast to be lower-owned and who will present a good pivot from some of the higher-owned options. In essence, the players you see below make up the majority of my player pool for this event.
Core Plays
Upper-Tier Plays
Mid-Range Plays
Value Plays
