2023 AT&T Byron Nelson – Round 4 Betting and Showdown Picks

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Best Odds to Win

Scottie Scheffler +330
Ryan Palmer +400
Austin Eckroat +700
Jason Day +700
Marty Dou +750
Si Woo Kim +1100
Tyrrell Hatton +1200

With Scottie Scheffler having a surprisingly poor third round, the door is cracked open for someone else to sneak in and steal one from the world’s second-ranked player on Sunday. I’m still 90% sure Scheffler will take control early and run away with it, but if he doesn’t, Jason Day is the best “Sunday” player in this field over the past year. And if Day regains his ball-striking form he can put some pressure on Scheffler.

While local native, Ryan Palmer, is tied for the lead, he remains nothing more than a longshot. His ball-striking regressed further on Saturday, and he has played very poorly in final rounds over the past year, losing an average of 0.32 strokes per round. As for Austin Eckroat and Marty Dou, this is the first time either has been anywhere near the top of a 54-hole leaderboard. Expect this to be a learning experience for them as I expect neither to remain in contention for long.

Weather Forecast – McKinney, Texas

Round 4 Betting Matchups Model

*Strokes Gained Rating (SG RTG) is the key metric that combines all the weighted categories in the model. Some players (or matchups) may not be listed due to not having enough sample size data.