The Florida swing continues at Bay Hill for the 2023 Arnold Palmer Invitational. Bay Hill offers a stern test of golf, and historically, the winner comes from near the top of the betting board. However, as we’ve seen a few times already this season, the top of the betting board for these ‘designated events’ resembles major championship golf and should likely be treated as such.
Despite being a healthy 7,454 yards, Bay Hill plays even longer than the scorecard would indicate. Despite that, distance advantages off the tee are mitigated because of the multitude of forced layups and doglegs throughout. Forced layups off the tee create a ton of long approach shots, and this week’s field will face a higher rate of 200+ yard approach shots than any other week this season. In 2022, just 29.1% of approach shots at Bay Hill were from 150 yards or closer, significantly lower than an average Tour event. Bay Hill’s lightning-fast, rock-solid Bermuda greens complexes feature run-offs that make the green difficult to hold, creating a lower-than-average greens in regulation rate every year.
Bay Hill typically features some of the longest rough on Tour each season, and the fairways can also play fast. Don’t be surprised to see excellent tee shots roll into the rough or even worse, the water. The 2015 redesign brings water into play on 11 of the 18 holes. And then there’s the wind. It’s always a story at Bay Hill, and the early weather report shows moderate wind throughout and strong gusts on Friday as of this writing, but be sure to check back on Wednesday for an updated report.
For more course details, check out Ron’s course preview. It’s the best in the business, bar none. Here’s an important tidbit about Bay Hill:
While distance off the tee has shown to be advantageous to success at Bay Hill, the actual driving distance is 16% lower than the average Tour course at an average of only 282.5 yards. As previously mentioned, one reason for this is the firmness of the Bermuda fairways combined with the thick overseeded rye rough, which stops any wayward drives right in its track. With the rough and water hazards in mind, many golfers also choose to club down to keep the ball in the fairway.
With many golfers playing conservatively off the tee, combined with the long par 3s, four par 5s, and so many shots from the thick rough, the average approach shot distance is one of the highest on Tour at 184 yards. In fact, over 36% of approach shots come from over 200 yards. This is the most on Tour. 10 of the last 11 winners in this event ranked in the top 55 on Tour for proximity to the hole from 200+ yards in the year leading up to their victory. Strong long-iron players should be targeted along with those who have a higher ball flight for softer landings on the firm greens. Very few short irons and wedges will be hit this week.
My goal with this piece is to touch on the golfers I’m targeting this week. There are millions of ways to bet on this beautiful game, so I’ll share my opinion on the best way to bet on each golfer in my player pool at this week’s event. When pricing out finishing position bets (T5, T10, T20s, etc.), I’ll often lean towards BetMGM even if there’s a better number elsewhere because of MGM’s advantageous dead-heat rules. So know the rules of the books that you’re betting on!
Please take advantage of the Discord feature and community. It’s the best way to get up-to-the-minute lines and advice, and if you need help getting started, please reach out. That’s where my full card will be posted, along with any live in-tournament bets from myself or other contributors. Betting markets are fluid, but I’ll note the best number available at the time of this writing.
This new world of designated events, where the top players are pitted against each other more frequently than in years past, calls for a new betting strategy. So, without increasing my weekly bankroll allocation, I’m shifting toward the top of the board in terms of outright betting. I typically live in the 30-60 range on the betting board, but overcoming the loaded sub-20 field in an event like this is really difficult. It’s one thing to fade the top of the board when there are just a few top-20 players in the field and skip down to the next tier, but when all of the Tour’s top players are teeing it up, the case gets thinner for bombs.
*Betting lines are accurate when posted in Discord.
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Noonan’s API Betting Targets
Rory McIlroy
Amidst the current three-man race for the top spot in the OWGR, defending FedEx Cup champion Rory McIlroy has yet to find the winner’s circle (he did win on the DP World Tour -suck it, Patty), while peers Jon Rahm and Scottie Scheffler have dominated the early swing of designated events. While I’ll shy away from stating that McIlroy is due, he does set up tremendously well for this event. That’s played out in his recent run of success at Bay Hill, with a win in 2018 and five top-ten finishes in his past six starts.
Statistically, over the past 36 rounds, McIlroy ranks inside the top five in this field in SG: APP, driving distance, SG: OTT, bogey avoidance, 450-500 yard Par-4 scoring, and Par-5 scoring, all key metrics for me this week. His 70.31 scoring average at Bay Hill is the best in the field, regardless of how many rounds someone has played, and few have played more than Rory’s 32 rounds.
He’s priced around 9/1 on most books, but I took advantage of FanDuel’s 50% profit boost to push him out past 14/1.
Xander Schauffele
I took advantage of FanDuel’s profit boost here as well, but I had already targeted Schauffele due to how well this course suits his game. He’s only played here once, finishing T24 in 2020, but he had an uncharacteristically terrible putting week, and I’m sure the galeforce winds that week didn’t help.
Schauffele is one of the best long-iron players in the world despite rarely being mentioned in that conversation. Over the past 12 months, Xander’s +0.158 strokes gained per approach over 200 yards leads the Tour, comfortably ahead of Collin Morikawa, who ranks second. He also ranks among the leaders in strokes gained on approach shots over 150 yards from the rough, which is relevant this week with a fairway hit rate roughly 4% lower than a Tour average event. He’s third in this field in SG: APP over the past 36 rounds and in or around the top 10 in bogey avoidance, 450-500 yard Par-4 scoring, and Par-5 scoring. I loved him at 24/1, so this FanDuel boost that takes him to 36 is such an easy click.
Will Zalatoris
Some will link past leaderboards at Torrey Pines and Bay Hill, which bodes well for my card, including Will Zalatoris. While we talk about how we need to find reasons, especially in these loaded field events, to cross guys off the list each week. I find it increasingly difficult to cross off Will Zalatoris. He remains a nightmare to watch putt from inside five feet, but he’s made significant strides with the putter, ranking 12th in this field in SG: P over the past six months.
The rest of his game is a perfect match for Bay Hill. He landed a T10 in his debut here back in 2021, and his recent form at Riviera quelled any injury concerns that I had for Zalatoris after his late-season back injury in 2022. He’s done his best work on tough courses against loaded fields, and this certainly qualifies.
Viktor Hovland
After backing Viktor Hovland here last year and falling a bit short, I’m going back to the well due in large part to the long initial number that was posted by FanDuel on Monday morning. Hovland’s short-term form isn’t anything special, though he won December’s Hero World Challenge and has three top-20 finishes in his four 2023 starts.
The concern with Hovland always leads back to his short game, but he’s made some improvements overall, and it’s noteworthy to me that he gained strokes both on and around the green here last year. He’s gained strokes around the green in three of his four career Bay Hill starts, and his putting has improved every year, so he’s clearly comfortable with this setup.
His baseline skill in terms of ball striking is why he’s on my radar. Over the past 100 rounds played, Hovland ranks inside the top five in the key proximity ranges required to win this week, and he’s excellent on long Par-4s and Par-5 scoring. There are still 30s out in the marketplace, which are viable if you didn’t jump in early.
FanDuel Finishing Position Parlay
Max Homa and Jason Day – T40 (+118)
This is a relatively new entry to the space, thanks to our friends at FanDuel. I played a number of these last season with a 9.85% ROI, so I’ll continue it this season. If it’s not for you, feel free to skip it.
Unlike most other books I’m familiar with, FanDuel allows you to parlay finishing position bets. Now, the very premise of the bet is flawed because the expected value is negative since players are competing for the same finishing positions. If the bet is two T40s like this one, when one leg of your parlay finishes above the threshold, there’s now one less spot available in that range for the other leg(s) to also come in. I know the math is terrible. Spare me. But let’s be honest. Some bets are just fun, and these are fun for me.
These were sort of my ‘last two out’ on my outright card. However, I really love their form, fit, and course history here, and I would be very surprised if they’re not in contention.
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