Strategy
Along with Pebble Beach in a few weeks, The American Express is a uniquely structured tournament with three courses in play and a cut-line after 54 holes instead of after 36. With every player guaranteed three rounds instead of two, taking more risks with player selection is the best strategy. If a player misses the cut, you are only missing out on one round of scoring. Personally, I will be overweight on the trio of Patrick Cantlay, Jon Rahm and Tony Finau, along with Cam Young, Cam Davis and Taylor Montgomery from the next tier. There are a variety of options in the low $7K range, and even a rookie like Tyson Alexander (6.4K) who presents a high ceiling in a “putting contest” type of event.
f684b2f3d4218ee06dad551b3bb2074bSpeaking of “scoring”, this is also the week to chase upside. With scoring possibly approaching the 25-under range again, we must target players who have proven they can go low and make tons of birdies. Streaky players with win equity are among those I will be choosing for my player pool this week. Examples of this include players like Tony Finau, Tom Kim, Cam Davis and Tom Hoge.
Keep in an eye on the wind as the forecast can fluctuate dramatically in the desert environment of California. And if playing Showdown contests, make sure to target golfers on both the Nicklaus Tournament and La Quinta courses as those two rate much easier than the Stadium Course.
American Express Narratives and Important Metrics
Unique Model Weights
- SG: Short Courses
- SG: Easy Scoring Courses
- SG: West Coast
There is definitely no need to overanalyze and get complicated this week when looking for the right type of player. We should be looking for “birdie-makers” with high upside who are solid on approach and can get hot with the putter. The two highest players on the DraftKings slate, Patrick Cantlay and Jon Rahm, definitely fit that mold. As you can with Cantlay’s data from the model below, he rates high in every key category, and I could not pass on him this time around. I am shocked his salary is that low at $10.1K.
When looking back at past results, all types of players can thrive here. However, there has been more of a pattern for accurate ball-strikers and players who can have a career-best week with the putter. With ten of the last 13 winners at this event coming from longshot territory, it would seem that going with a “stars and scrubs” approach is the most prudent course of action. This is the most top-heavy this field has ever been with ten of the top 19 players in the world in attendance.
All three golf courses seem to cater to different players. Accurate “bombers” and wedge-game specialists have the edge at the Stadium Course. Accurate driving along with mid-irons and around the green play is vital at the Nicklaus Course, and getting hot with the flat stick appears to lead to success at La Quinta.
Not only is it smart to target golfers who have a quality all-around game, but it’s also important to focus on the unique splits from the model this week. “Western” golf definitely has its own feel. Whether it’s the familiar grass, cooler air or a desert backdrop, certain golfers perform better out west. Also, with each course being under 7,200 yards, certain players perform much better on shorter courses compared to their baseline.
The split that I value the most this week is SG: Easy Scoring. There are certain golfers like Will Zalatoris who simply do not make enough birdie putts to contend in these high-scoring “putting contest” events. While he did finish sixth here last year, he is a player that I am fading in all formats this week. Each of the unique splits has a much higher week for this week and was also incorporated into the “Core 4” metric along with SG: Approach, SG: Putting and my “Scoring” model. The rankings for each is available in my full model below.
Weather Forecast – La Quinta, California
The American Express – DraftKings Picks
Each week along with presenting my top choices for each of the categories below, I will include each of the pertinent stats for the specific event that comes directly from my model. Except for the “Core Plays,” which most weeks will typically be somewhat on the chalky side, I will include at least one player I am positive on who is forecast to be lower-owned and who will present a good pivot from some of the higher-owned options. In essence, the players you see below make up the majority of my player pool for this event.
Core Plays
Upper-Tier Plays
Mid-Range Plays
Value Plays
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