Saturday’s round at The Country Club in Brookline was a classic U.S. Open test of survival. Playing at 3.53 strokes over par, only seven players shot under par for the round. Will Zalatoris only made one bogey and had the round of the day with a 3-under 67. Matt Fitzpatrick was equally as sharp with three birdies over his last five holes to shoot a 68. Zalatoris and Fitzpatrick enter Sunday tied for the 54-hole lead at 4-under.
Commonly known as “Moving Day”, it literally was exactly that as eight different players moved to the top spot on the leaderboard throughout the day. Some had harder falls than others. Jon Rahm zoomed to the lead down the stretch at 5-under only to double-bogey the 18th hole. He sits one shot back at 3-under. After Scottie Scheffler eagled the 8th hole he had a two-shot at 6-under but then proceeded to shoot 5-over on holes 11-14 and finished the round in a tie for 4th place with Keegan Bradley and Adam Hadwin.
Sunday’s weather will contribute to what will most likely be another very challenging round of golf. Winds are forecast to fluctuate between 12-17 mph with consistent gusts around 20 mph throughout the round. There will also be rain in the area throughout the day along with cool temperatures in the 50s. With a stacked leaderboard, including six of the world’s top players in the first nine, there is not much value to be had. With a pre-tournament outright on Rahm, he is my top choice to defend his U.S. Open victory from last year.
Weather Forecast – Brookline, Massachusetts
Reconstructed Leaderboard
*Based on the expected total for every golfer if they had putted to their two-year baseline on Bentgrass.
- Fitzpatrick -5.4
- Hadwin -2.2
- Scheffler -0.5
- Dahmen 0.0
- Bramlett 0.1
- Buckley 1.0
- Woodland 1.4
- Spieth 1.5
- Bradley 1.8
- Matsuyama 1.9
Round 4 Betting Matchups Model
*Strokes Gained Rating (SG RTG) is the key metric that combines all the weighted categories in the model.
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Round 4 Betting Selections
*Betting lines accurate at the time of publication.
Brian Harman +105 (1u) over Davis Riley – FanDuel (Tie Voids)
Collin Morikawa -125 (1.3u) over Patrick Rodgers – BetMGM
Marc Leishman -110 (1.1u) over Mackenzie Hughes– BetMGM (Tie Voids)
PARLAY +164 (1u) – Justin Thomas -160 over Cameron Tringale & Scottie Scheffler -160 over Adam Hadwin – BetMGM
*Check the Discord for additional selections
Round 4 DraftKings DFS Showdown Selections
*Weather and tee time impacts not included in model. Tee Times can be found here.
Core Plays
- Patrick Cantlay, $8,300
- Matt Fitzpatrick, $8,900
- Scottie Scheffler, $10,500
Top-Tier Plays
- Jon Rahm, $10,000
- Rory McIlroy, $10,700
- Xander Schauffele, $9,500
Mid-Tier Plays
- Sam Burns, $9,100
- Will Zalatoris, $9,300
- Hideki Matsuyama, $8,700
- Jordan Spieth, $9,000
- Brian Harman, $8,000
- Dustin Johnson, $8,800
Value Plays
- Keegan Bradley, $7,900
- Gary Woodland, $7,100
- Seamus Power, $7,900
- Adam Hadwin, $7,800
- Denny McCarthy, $7,100
- Marc Leishman, $7,300
- Joel Dahmen, $7,800
- Cameron Tringale, $7,400
- Hayden Buckley, $6,900
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Photo by Jared C. Tilton/Getty Images