Xander Schauffele shot a 3-under 67 in Saturday’s third round to hold onto a lead that has shrunk to a single shot over good friend Patrick Cantlay. It was a bogey-free 18-holes for Cantlay who shot the round of the day with a 7-under 63. Tour rookie Sahith Theegala sits alone in solo third place and is three shots back. Considering their elite status over any of the other nearby competitors on the leaderboard, the tournament appears to be Schauffele’s or Cantlay’s to lose. With Schauffele not winning an individual title since the 2019 Sentry Tournament of Champions and fighting off the reputation of not being able to close out tournaments, if I didn’t already have an outright ticket on Cantlay, I would be all over his odds of +140 to win.
Weather Forecast – Cromwell, CT
Reconstructed Leaderboard
*Based on the expected total for every golfer if they had putted to their two-year baseline.
- Cantlay -12.3
- Scheffler -12.2
- Theegala -11.8
- Schauffele -11.4
- Steele -11.3
- NeSmith -10.9
- Laird -10.2
- Simpson -9.9
- Poston -9.4
- Finau -9.2
Round 4 Betting Matchups Model
*Strokes Gained Rating (SG RTG) is the key metric that combines all the weighted categories in the model.
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Round 4 Betting Selections
*Betting lines accurate at the time of publication.
J.T. Poston +105 (1u) over Nick Hardy – BetMGM (Tie Voids)
PARLAY +165 (1u) – Brian Harman -150 over Conrad Shindler and Keegan Bradley -170 over Paul Barjon – FanDuel
Keith Mitchell -110 (1.2u) over John Huh – BetMGM
Brendan Steele -115 (1.2u) over Adam Long – FanDuel
Scott Stallings -110 (1.1u) over Robert Streb – BetMGM
PARLAY +128 (1.3u) – Scottie Scheffler -222 over Lee Hodges and Webb Simpson -175 over Michael Thorbjornsen – PointsBet
PARLAY +156 (1u) – Tony Finau -161 over Adam Svensson and Harold Varner III -172 over Chesson Hadley – PointsBet
Round 4 DraftKings DFS Showdown Selections
*Weather and tee time impacts not included in model. Tee Times can be found here.
Core Plays
- Patrick Cantlay, $10,200
- Tony Finau, $9,400
- J.T. Poston, $7,900
Top-Tier Plays
- Scottie Scheffler, $10,300
- Xander Schauffele, $10,100
Mid-Tier Plays
- Webb Simpson, $9,300
- Brian Harman, $9,000
- Keith Mitchell, $8,800
- Keegan Bradley, $8,800
- Brendan Steele, $8,900
- Aaron Rai, $8,100
Value Plays
- Scott Stallings, $7,200
- Charles Howell III, $7,900
- Martin Laird, $7,300
- Chez Reavie, $7,200
- Kevin Kisner, $7,700
- Luke List, $7,700
- Kevin Streelman, $7,500
- Adam Long, $7,600
- Sam Ryder, $6,500
- Patton Kizzire, $6,800
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Photo by Tim Nwachukwu/Getty Images