With Justin Thomas withdrawing this morning with a back injury, the upper tier of players became even more concentrated. For full disclosure, I am changing my strategy somewhat this week. As all of you know that play DFS, getting as many “six of six” lineups through the cutline is the ultimate goal each week. It honestly is one of the mysteries of life especially when you consider last week when I fully expected the likes of Corey Conners and Daniel Berger to be a lock to make it to the weekend.
This week I am taking a much more balanced approach to my lineups, and am almost solely focused on consistent players who have a high percentage of made cuts and who have solid past history either at TPC River Highlands or at some of the other comp courses. That being said, while I am still looking at ownership, it will not be a priority this week. My entire player pool will be filled with players that I believe have the highest confidence in making the cut. Am I still looking for upside? Yes! Sepp Straka, for example, has struggled of late and his ownership will probably be low. But I think he is a great course fit this week and has a high likelihood of getting back on track and through the cut-line. We all saw what he did with three top-10 finishes just a couple of months ago. At $7,100 he brings win equity to the table along with great value.
f684b2f3d4218ee06dad551b3bb2074bAlong with my concentrated player pool of golfers who fit the characteristics in my “Keys to Success” below, I am crossing off some big names at the top of the board. This will be Rory McIlroy’s fifth event in the last six weeks. Throughout his career, he rarely ever plays this much in a six-week span. And coming off another missed opportunity at a major, I would not be shocked if he misses the cut here. Scottie Scheffler is another player that I will be mostly fading. In his only two trips here to TPC River Highlands, he has a 47th place finish and a missed cut. Even though he ranks second overall in my model he has typically played below his baseline at these shorter courses with only two par-5s and those are pretty much wedge/birdie-fests. As for Sam Burns, his swing looked horrible on Sunday, losing multiple strokes ball-striking. That leaves me with one player in the upper tier that will be a centerpiece in my lineups and who I will be mixing and matching will the rest of my player pool – Patrick Cantlay.
Cantlay finished in 5th position in the final model this week, but it’s his course history here at TPC River Highlands that pushed him over the top. He has four top-15s here and has gained over five strokes ball-striking in three of those four starts. Looking back long-term, he leads the field in total strokes gained per round over the last 18 months. He has a great history on both Pete Dye tracks and on shorter par-70 type courses. He also ranks high in my putting splits this week on these poa/bent surfaces. Coming off a below-average U.S. Open I expect him to be very motivated to win this week.
Keys to Success
With such a variety of playing styles represented in past champions at TPC River Highlands, handicapping this tournament is always a challenge. Not only do we see all types of players near the top of the leaderboard in years past, but it is also the fourth-shortest course on Tour. These facts allow almost every single player in the field who can find a hot putter to have a fighting chance. A variety of splits were built into the model this week to try to identify the players with the highest chance for success, both in upside and in making the cut. First, a group of comp courses was used that is similar to TPC River Highlands in course length, easy fairway accuracy %, and overall scoring and birdie %.
Off the tee (OTT) weighs in as more important this week than the average Tour course. The penalty for missing fairways is very high. Players who can add distance to accuracy will have nothing but wedges into greens that are known for having tricky pin positions. One of the main splits in the OTT model for the week is past SG: OTT performance on the other “Less Than Driver” courses that are also short in length. While some players will choose a bomb and gauge approach and gain strokes off the tee that way, others will gain strokes by staying out of the rough and choosing to position themselves by clubbing down.
A few other stats that had higher weights this week are proximity from 125-175 yards and par-4 scoring from 400-450 yards. On such a short course players will have short irons and wedges in their hands a majority of the time on approach. Players who have a high birdie or better rate from that range should be targeted. Some of these players include Cantlay, Joaquin Niemann, Denny McCarthy, Xander Schauffele, Keegan Bradley, and Seamus Power. With 10 holes under 445 yards, players that are strong in that range of par-4 holes should have an advantage. Scottie Scheffler, Niemann, Power, Mito Pereira and Brian Harman rate well on those.
Finally, with so many low individual scores posted over the years, players who can put themselves in position on approach to make birdie putts can separate themselves from the field. Scoring opportunities from 15 feet and less are weighted high in the Scoring model this week. Overall, players who can generate these opportunities, have great course history, and who are in form with their ball-striking will have the best chance to rise up the leaderboard.
Cromwell, CT Weather Forecast (June 23-June 26)
Top 10 Most Important Stats
*In order of importance.
- SG: APP
- SG: OTT
- Proximity 125-175
- Par 4: 400-450
- Birdie or Better %
- Opportunities Gained
- SG: P (Poa/Bent)
- SG: ARG
- Fairways Gained
- Bogey Avoidance
Travelers Championship DraftKings Picks
Each week along with presenting my top choices for each of the categories below, I will include each of the pertinent stats for the specific event that comes directly from my model. Except for the “Core Plays” which most weeks will typically be somewhat on the chalky side, I will include at least one player I am positive on who is forecast to be lower-owned and who will present a good pivot from some of the higher-owned options.
Core Plays
Upper-Tier Plays
Mid-Range Plays
Value Plays
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