The PGA Tour season and FedEx Cup Playoffs come to an end this week in Atlanta at East Lake Golf Club. There are two markets for this event, which makes watching and handicapping it, quite different than most weeks.
We’ve seen a plethora of formats to properly award an end-of-the-year champion on the PGA Tour, and I don’t want to rip on the current design without presenting a better solution to fixing it because I don’t have one. So I’ll just say that I don’t really like it.
The starting stroke index, which alters each player’s starting score based on their current FedEx Cup standings, ensures that we have just one winner at East Lake on Sunday afternoon. Most sportsbooks will allow us to bet on that staggered scoring outcome, along with your typical, everyone-starts-at-zero market as well. So here’s how things will start:
East Lake puts a premium on ball-striking and accuracy off the tee, a drastic pivot from last week’s bomb-and-gauge affair at Caves Valley. Nine of the past 13 winners at East Lake finished inside the top-10 in fairways hit for the week. This 7,346-yard Par-70 track forces more long irons on approach than your standard tour stop, and with only two par-5s on the course, including the finishing hole at 18, scoring opportunities are at a premium this week. In addition, the Bermudagrass greens are traditionally fast here, so proximity on approach is vital to one’s success.
Check out Ron‘s detailed course preview here, but here’s an important tidbit:
East Lake packs plenty of length and requires drives to be hit off most of the tees. That, along with such narrow fairways, are the reason it has an adjusted driving accuracy rate of 62%, which is the eighth toughest on Tour. With the Bermuda rough being the 3rd most penal on Tour, there is a high premium on keeping the ball in the fairway. In fact, player after player has remarked on how that is the most important factor for having success on this course. Obviously, distance off the tee also helps, which makes Total Driving a key stat this week.
East Lake features one of the largest Greens in Regulation (GIR) differentials when comparing shots from the fairway to the rough. It is very hard to get spin on the ball when it is sitting down in the Bermuda rough. The overall GIR sits at around 63%, which is the 9th lowest out of all of the measured courses. It is also difficult to gain strokes on approach because greens have well-defined target areas. Many of the green complexes are elevated and undulated, making it paramount to position the ball below the pin.
Please take advantage of the Discord feature and community. It’s the best way to get up-to-the-minute lines and advice, and if you need help getting started, please reach out. That’s where my full card will be posted, along with any live in-tournament bets. Betting markets are fluid, but I’ll note the best number available at the time of this writing.
*Betting lines accurate at the time of publication.
f684b2f3d4218ee06dad551b3bb2074bNoonan’s Tour Championship Targets
Rory McIlroy
When capping the starting strokes market this week, I began my process by simply ruling out anyone below -4. Of course, it’s an arbitrary endpoint, but I think the deficit, along with the quality of golfers at and above -4, makes it too difficult of a climb for anyone below that point.
Of course, it helps that Rory has done this before. Back in 2019, McIlroy won by four strokes (three strokes in the without starting strokes market), posting four rounds at 68 or lower to win comfortably. He’s playing as well as anyone in the world right now, ranking first in this field in total strokes gained per round over the past three months.
- Win: 12/1 BetMGM
Tony Finau
Just like McIlroy, Tony Finau starts six shots off the lead. It was great to see Finau bounce back after last week’s opening round 77. He posted 68, 67, and 68 to finish the event, and his form leading up to this week means more to me than one bad round. His putter has been white-hot for nearly two months now, a huge turnaround from the putting woes he went through to start the season. Over the past three months, Finau ranks inside the top 10 in this field in every stroke gained metric, including fourth overall.
- Win: 18/1 BetMGM
Max Homa (NO starting strokes)
Max’s weekly appearance is likely no surprise to most readers. Again, this is a play in the no starting strokes market, where Homa is egregiously priced at 50/1 on BetMGM. In a 29-man field, this doesn’t make sense. Homa’s approach game hasn’t been nearly as sharp as earlier this summer, but we’re talking about a top-20 player in the world. Form is fickle, and it can change at any point. The rest of his game is in line with what we’ve seen from him all season, and I think his distance and accuracy baseline skill off the tee will show up here. This is a bad number.
- Win: 50/1 BetMGM
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Featured Image – Stuart Franklin/Getty Images