The PGA Tour heads west to Las Vegas for its annual stop at TPC Summerlin, home of the Shriners Children’s Open. Located about 20 minutes west of the Las Vegas Strip at the base of the Red Rock Canyon, TPC Summerlin is a desert parkland course that plays at around 2,700 feet of elevation. Known as one of the easiest courses on Tour, players will have to bring a “scoring” mindset from the first tee on Thursday, not just to be in the mix come Sunday, but also just to make the cut.
Compared to last week at the Sanderson Farms Championship, the level of competition takes a huge jump with 12 of the top 50 players in the world heading to Vegas. Overall, there is a very balanced upper-tier headlined by Patrick Cantlay, Max Homa and Sungjae Im. Ranked fourth in the world, Cantlay is one of the stalwarts of this event as he won his first PGA Tour victory here in 2018 and has had three other top-8 finishes since. His Presidents Cup teammate, Max Homa, who went undefeated at Quail Hollow will also return to action.
As for Im, he returns to Summerlin to defend his title two weeks after his own quality performance in the Presidents Cup. Joining him in Las Vegas will be more than half of his Presidents Cup teammates in Cam Davis, Si Woo Kim, Tom Kim, K.H. Lee, Mito Pereira, Taylor Pendrith and Christiaan Bezuidenhout. Five major champions are also included in the field along with more than a dozen players with connections to Las Vegas.
The Shriners Children’s Open has been a breakthrough event for many different players who earned their first Tour victory here including Tiger Woods. There will be 144 golfers in the field with 500 FedExCup points and a two-year PGA Tour exemption on the line. The cut line on Friday will include the top 65 and ties.
Keys to Success
At TPC Summerlin, birdies and eagles, and no bogeys are the name of the game at this track meet of a golf event. Golfers will most likely need to be at least 5-under to make the cut and around 20-under to put themselves in contention on Sunday. The ease of scoring here is something to behold. TPC Summerlin has the highest Greens in Regulation and Birdie or Better % on Tour. It has the fourth fewest bogeys, the fifth easiest Par 5s, is the third easiest to gain off the tee, and the eighth easiest to gain putting. Have to put the pedal down here from the opening tee shot on Thursday. 2 years ago the cut line was 7-under.
One thing to keep an eye on that might make the course play more difficult this year is that new grass was laid on the entire course. New turf is usually going to play very firm with more drives bounding through the fairways and into the rough. The greens will probably be extra bouncy. Because the summer has been so hot in the Vegas area, the rough is also the thickest it’s ever been here at 2.5 inches. Also, because of the climate and the newness of the greens, they will not be cut as much and will be on the slower side at 11 on the stimp meter.
f684b2f3d4218ee06dad551b3bb2074bIt’s a Par 71, 7200 yds, desert parkland course that plays even shorter thanks to 2,700 feet of elevation. While players can bomb it off the tee (OTT) this week, I am not weighing SG: OTT performance highly in the model because there are so many way to attack the course from the tee box. Seven of the last nine winners here finished in top-20 for Driving Accuracy for the week. But TPC Summerlin also has the 2nd longest Driving Distance on Tour and there is very little danger OTT. Because the course is so short, you don’t even need to take driver off the tee on many holes. While the Bermuda rough can be unpredictable, it is not that penal. Nonetheless, because you need to score birdie after birdie here, playing from the fairway is clearly the biggest advantage OTT. Players have been very emphatic on that point when describing the course.
There are numerous golfers in this event who reside in the Las Vegas area and are ultra-familiar with this course. I do not believe familiarity with the course itself is a huge advantage this week, but I do believe their experience playing at this elevation presents a small edge for these players in that they should have more distance control with their club selection. For that reason, I have slightly bumped up certain locals in the model including Seamus Power, Aaron Wise and Kurt Kitayama among others.
The four main stats in the “Core 4” that I believe are the most important for this week include Strokes Gained (SG) on Approach, SG: Putting, Scoring (Birdie or Better %, Chances Gained inside 15 feet, Par 5 Scoring), and SG on “Easy Scoring” courses.
Most important area I’m targeting is approach play combined with the ability to get hot on these greens. The proximity to the hole data tells us that this is one of the few areas where this course is tougher than average. And that’s because they tend to place the pins into very tight areas and corners of the greens. So approach play is the only one of the metrics where players strong in that area can gain separation on the field. 34% of approaches are from 100-150 yards. We definitely want to target players good with their wedges from that range.
Looking at past winners, there are so many good putters on the list. Quite honestly, if you can keep your ball in the fairway, the 11 par-4s turn into a wedge-fest putting contest. Whoever can get those approach shots closest to the pin and sink the most putts will be raising the trophy on Sunday. And of course, players almost need to birdie every single par-5 with the occasional eagle mixed in as well.
Finally, with the need to score really low, I created a SG: Easy Scoring courses metric that looks back at performance on other high-scoring tracks. You would be surprised at how many elite players perform below their baseline in these types of events. Max Homa is one of those, and thus, as scary as it feels, I will be fading him this week. Patrick Cantlay and Sungjae Im perform well above their baseline in these situations and I am heavily invested in them for a high finishing position.
Las Vegas, NV Weather Forecast (October 6th-October 9th)
Top 10 Most Important Stats
*In order of importance.
- SG: APP (100-150 yds)
- SG: Putting (Bent)
- Par 5 Scoring
- Birdie or Better %
- Scoring Chances Gained
- Overall Proximity
- Fairways Gained
- SG: Easy Courses
- SG: Putting 5-15 feet
The Shriners Children’s Open Final Model
In each preview article and on Discord, I present my final model, which gives a detailed player ranking of the most important stats and splits for the week. My modeling is built around the PGA’s Strokes Gained data, which is divided into SG: Off the Tee (OTT), SG: Approach (APP), SG: Around the Green (ARG), and SG: Putting (P). Learn more about Strokes Gained and why it can be so useful in analyzing the past and predicting future performance. Many of the individual splits will be posted on my Twitter feed, with the final model exclusively published here for subscribers.
Outright Betting Selections
*Lines accurate at the time of publication.
Tom Kim +3000 (currently +2500)
If you take out the BMW Championship (where he still gained four strokes on approach), Kim has gained 2.1 SG per round in his previous seven events with a win and two other top 7s. That is incredible for a young player just getting his start on Tour. He is coming off an electric performance at the Presidents Cup, and being a shorter hitter off the tee, is a perfect fit for this course. And in a scoring track meet such as the Shriners Open, he can get as hot as anyone on the greens.
Taylor Montgomery +4000 (currently +3300)
This is a home game for the Las Vegas native who knows TPC Summerlin very well. He has started his PGA Tour career on fire with back-to-back top 10s. He might challenge Denny McCarthy for the best putter on Tour. In his four career Tour events he has gained, 5.8, 11.2, 5.4, and 6.5 strokes putting. He knows these greens very well, and if he can dial in his wedge game will make a run at the top of the leaderboard come Sunday.
Tom Hoge +6000 (currently +5000)
Hoge is one of the elite iron players in the world, which is the exact skill we want to target this week. He gained 4.2 shots on approach at the Fortinet and has three top 12s in his last five starts. He has three top 24s here since 2017 and brings win equity that other players in this range do not have.
K.H. Lee +9000 (currently +6600)
Seeing his odds this low when the board opened on Monday was downright disrespectful. The two-time winner on Tour is coming off a nice showing at the Presidents Cup and thrives on “easy scoring” TPC courses. He shot 26-under to win the Byron Nelson at TPC Craig Ranch, so he can go low when needed. He also had consecutive top-20s in the first two rounds of the FedExCup Playoffs showing that he can play well in any type of event.
(0.26u) BetRivers
Matthew NeSmith +9000 (currently +8000)
NeSmith finished ninth last week and gained 9.3 strokes combined on approach and with the putter. Similar to Hoge, he is an elite iron player whose approach play can separate him from the field. His track record here is amazing with finishes of 18-8-14 over the last three years.
Other Outright Selections
- Cam Davis +4500 (0.53u) – BetRivers
- Taylor Pendrith +5500 (currently +5000) (0.43u) – BetRivers
- Mito Pereira +7000 (0.34u) – BetRivers
- Kurt Kitayama +9000 (0.26u) – DraftKings
- Callum Tarren +15000 (0.16u) – DraftKings
Finishing Position Picks
Top 10
- Patrick Cantlay -105 (2u) – FanDuel
Top 20
Top 30 – all BetRivers
- Taylor Montgomery +110 (1.2u)
- Cameron Davis +120 (1u)
- Tom Hoge +120 (1u)
- Taylor Pendrith +138 (1u)
Top 40
- Emiliano Grillo -110 (1.2u) – BetRivers
- Thomas Detry +120 (1u) – PointsBet
- Adam Hadwin +120 (1u) – PointsBet
- Seamus Power +120 (1u) – PointsBet
- Matthew NeSmith +120 (1u) – BetRivers
- K.H. Lee +120 (1u) – PointsBet
- Mark Hubbard +120 (1u) – DraftKings
- Kurt Kitayama +130 (1u) – PointsBet
- Mito Pereira +145 (1u) – FanDuel
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Photo by Warren Little/Getty Images