The PGA and DP World Tours have been in the news of late with talks of a heightened ‘strategic alliance’ surrounding all things LIV Golf, and the foundation for those discussions was likely more straightforward since co-sanctioned events are not new. Exhibit 1, The Scottish Open.
This is the first year that The Scottish Open is equal parts PGA and DP World Tour, with 75 players in attendance from each, including 14 of the top 15 in the OWGR. Many PGA Tour members have played The Scottish in previous years, including the past three at The Renaissance Club, the host of this year’s event, but this is the first time they’ll earn FedEx Cup points for this appearance.
Per Ron‘s course preview, the course is not a pure links setup with the numerous tree-lined holes, undulations, and heavy rough in play just off the fairways (especially on the back nine). But there is a definitive links-style component to the course. It is off the coastline and subject to windy conditions, and the fescue turf is firm and tight. This leads to fast-running surfaces on the fairways and aprons leading to the greens, where a lack of bunkers in front encourages the use of the ground game and bump-and-run shots. Many of the course’s 83 bunkers are also links-style pot bunkers with deep riveted faces.
As we should expect in Europe, the weather is the course’s best defense. When the wind is quiet, this place can be easily picked by the world’s best. Unfortunately, we’ve seen very different scores come Sunday afternoon when the winds swirl and gust. I’m focusing on ball-striking, birdie opportunities, and distance. I’m also leaning towards golfers that either have links-style success or have shown well previously at The Renaissance Club. Bonus points for scrambling abilities, which could come into play if the wind is a factor.
My goal with this piece is to touch on the golfers I’m targeting this week. There are millions of ways to bet on this beautiful game, so I’ll share my opinion on the best way to bet on each golfer in my player pool at this week’s event. When pricing out finishing position bets, I’ll often lean towards BetMGM even if there’s a better number elsewhere because of MGM’s advantageous dead-heat rules. The cowards haven’t posted T20 bets yet, but I digress. Know the rules of the books that you’re betting on!
Please take advantage of the Discord feature and community. It’s the best way to get up-to-the-minute lines and advice, and if you need help getting started, please reach out. That’s where my full card will be posted, along with any live in-tournament bets. Betting markets are fluid, but I’ll note the best number available at the time of this writing.
*Betting lines accurate at the time of publication.
Noonan’s Scottish Open Targets
Justin Thomas
It’s uncommon for me to fire at a golfer near the top of the board outside of a major, but I love this spot for Justin Thomas. It’s difficult to poke a hole in his game right now, and his baseline skills are a perfect fit for what I think it’ll take to win this week, regardless of the conditions. He’s posted the two most impressive ‘weather’ rounds on Tour this season, first at The PLAYERS and then again at Southern Hills during the PGA Championship, so if the wind wants to play a factor this week, I know JT has every shot in the bag. But, in clean conditions, he offers unrivaled upside. We also know he’s not out here going through the motions. He’s won two of his past seven starts the week before a major. Six of the seven starts have seen him finish inside the top-10, except for a T20 at the 2019 Canadian Open. He’s looking to win and carry that momentum into the following week.
Arguably the best iron player in the world, Thomas gives himself a ton of chances every time he tees it up. Over the past 36 rounds, he ranks inside the top 10 in nearly every key metric in this field. SG: APP, birdie opportunities, SG: Ball-striking, driving distance, 3-putt avoidance. The list goes on. And if scrambling is required, he’s second in the field in proximity from under 125 yards and 16th in SG: ARG. The Scottish/Open double starts here.
Sam Burns
I’m guilty of anchoring to certain guys and riding them, but I don’t think that’s a poor approach to handicapping golf. Sam Burns is someone that I’ve bet on a lot over the past four years, but it’s paid dividends. Burns is a winner and in contention most weeks. His approach game has been at the center of his rise, piecing together exceptional approach numbers while maintaining the elite bomb and putt game that first caught my attention in 2018. His around the green game has also improved, and now Burns is gaining strokes across all metrics for the first time in his career. He finished 18th last year in his Scottish debut, and he’s an auto-bet for me north of 30 right now.
Hideki Matsuyama
We haven’t seen a lot of Matsuyama of late, so I get that he’s out of sight out of mind for some. That’s likely why he’s available at this price. Back at Southern Hills in May, Matsuyama, who finished T60, lost strokes on approach for the first time since the 2021 Tour Championship. That level of consistency is remarkable. Last time out at the U.S. Open, he proved that it was a fluke, gaining almost 10 strokes on approach on his way to a solo fourth-place finish in Brookline. His putting numbers are the best since 2019, and when the spike weeks come, he’s on the first page of the leaderboard on Sunday afternoon.
Max Homa
I called my shot on a Justin Thomas Scottish/Open double at the top, but truth be told, I’ve only placed one outright for next week’s Open at St. Andrews, which was on Max Homa (90/1). That number was egregious, making this week’s 50 look like a bad value, which it’s not. He’s playing far and away the best golf of his career right now. On the season, he’s gaining strokes across the board and is setting a career-high in every individual category. That’s an impressive combination. He’s also positive in both adjusted driving distance and accuracy off the tee, leading to a 50% T20 rate in his 18 starts to date.
- Top Win: 50/1 BetRivers
- Top 20: +240 DraftKings
FanDuel Finishing Position Parlay
Xander Schauffele and Matthew Fitzpatrick – T40 (+105)
This is a relatively new entry to the space, thanks to our friends at FanDuel. Unlike most other books I’m familiar with, FanDuel allows you to parlay finishing position bets. Now, the very premise of the bet is flawed because the expected value is negative since players are competing for the same finishing positions. If the bet is two T40s like this one, when one leg of your parlay finishes above the threshold, there’s now one less spot available in that range for the other leg(s) to also come in. I know the math is terrible. Spare me. But let’s be honest. Some bets are just fun, and these are fun for me.
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Featured Image – Patrick Smith/Getty Images