The swing season continues this week in Jackson, Mississippi, at the Country Club of Jackson and the Sanderson Farms Championship. As is the case with most swing season events, the field leaves a lot to be desired. Outside of Presidents Cup team member and defending Sanderson Farms champion Sam Burns, this field is littered with Kory Ferry Tour graduates and second-tier golfers. But that doesn’t mean we can’t fire off some bets!
The Country Club of Jackson is a sprawling par-72 track approaching 7,500 yards from the tips. It’s a fairly straightforward course, lacking nuance, elevation changes, and hazards that limit scoring. For more course details, check out Ron’s course preview, but here’s an important tidbit:
There are two key approach ranges to focus on for this week. First, 34% of approaches are from the wedge range of 100-150 yards. The Tour average from this range is only 27%. Also, thanks to the lengthy par 5s, 18% of approaches will come from 250+ yards which is well above the average of 10%. Accuracy when “Going for the Green” with second shot approaches on the par 5s will be crucial this week. This is where the longer hitters have a definite advantage in attempting to set up birdie opportunities on the four par 5s. The par 5s here rank as the second toughest on Tour in “Hitting the Green %” when going for the green on the second shot.
There are millions of ways to bet on this beautiful game, and my goal with this piece is to touch on the golfers I’m targeting this week. When pricing out finishing position bets, I’ll often lean towards BetMGM even if there’s a better number elsewhere because of MGM’s advantageous dead-heat rules. Know the rules of the books that you’re betting on, folks! Since this event, in my opinion, is one of the trickiest on Tour to handicap, I’ll likely shy away from a lot of finishing position bets this week. Any time Cameron Champ and Ryan Armour show up as past champions at the same track; it’s safe to say that any style of golf can win this event.
Please take advantage of the Discord feature and community. It’s the best way to get up-to-the-minute lines and advice, and if you need help getting started, please reach out. That’s where my full card will be posted, along with any live in-tournament bets. Betting markets are fluid, but I’ll note the best number available at the time of this writing.
I’m not sure how I’ll be allocating funds for the swing season yet, but for now, I’m concentrating on outright selections in this space.
*Betting lines are accurate at the time of publication.
f684b2f3d4218ee06dad551b3bb2074bNoonan’s Sanderson Farms Betting Targets
Trey Mullinax
We saw a glimpse of Trey Mullinax’s ceiling toward the tail end of last season. He won the Barbasol Championship the week before The Open and kept the momentum going with a surprising T21 at St. Andrews. He earned his way into the FedEx Cup Playoffs and kept the gravy train rolling in the first playoff event, a T5 finish at St. Jude. That surprising finish was enough to earn him a spot at the BMW Championship the following week, where his ball-striking prowess continued to shine on the way to a T12 in that loaded 69-man field.
Mullinax hits it a country mile, makes birdies at an elite rate, grew up in the southeast playing on these Bermuda greens, and has shown tremendous form over the past few events. At 66/1, he offers a ton of upside in this field, and I’d bet him down to 50/1.
To Win: 66/1 BetRivers
Emiliano Grillo
Similar to Trey Mullinax, Emiliano Grillo was playing his best golf in August when the season ended. He bookended a missed cut at The Open with T2 finishes at the John Deere and 3M Open, corollary events to this week’s Sanderson Farms.
The ball-striking has never been his issue, and it continued to be a strength in the summer, but he’s clearly figured something out on the greens. Grillo gained at least two strokes on the greens in his final five events in the 2021-22 season and continued to roll it well at the Fortinet last time out, gaining nearly 2.5 strokes putting on the week. I like his chances to put it all together this week, and the price is right at 40/1.
To Win: 40/1 DraftKings
Yechun (Carl) Yuan
Carl Yuan’s 2022 results are quite the rollercoaster ride. He made 21 Korn Ferry Tour starts last season, failing to miss the cut in 9 of those 21 starts. That’s….not great. But, the good news for Yuan is that when he makes the cut, he’s all but a lock to be among the top of the leaderboard come Sunday afternoon. Yuan finished T7 or betting in 9 of his 12 made cuts last season, including a win at the Louisana Open.
His ball-striking rates are strong. It’s tough to contextualize this field’s past 20-50 rounds because some guys were on the PGA Tour for all of them while others like Yuan played mostly on the Korn Ferry, but over the past 50 rounds played, Yuan ranks third in this field in strokes gained approach and first in strokes gained tee-to-green. He also has plus distance off the tee, something I’d rather have here at C.C. of Jackson than not. His putting splits leave a lot to be desired, but the fact that he bagged his win in Louisana on Bermuda greens certainly helps. This is a bomb, but his pedigree is too strong to be this deep.
To Win: 140/1 FanDuel
FanDuel Finishing Position Parlay
Scott Stallings and Alex Smalley- T40 (+270) FanDuel
Unlike most other books I’m familiar with, FanDuel allows you to parlay finishing position bets. Now, the very premise of the bet is flawed because the expected value is negative since players are competing for the same finishing positions. If the bet is two T40s like this one, when one leg of your parlay finishes above the threshold, there’s now one less spot available in that range for the other leg(s) to also come in. I know the math is terrible. Spare me. But let’s be honest. Some bets are just fun, and these are fun for me.
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Featured Image – Sam Greenwood/Getty Images