What an interesting event we have with this week’s John Deere Classic with only three of the top 75 ranked players in attendance. These are the weeks that seem boring and very tough to figure out but those of us that do the research and who know these players inside and out have an advantage.
The natural tendency this week will be to have a more balanced lineup build because of the lack of viable options in the $6K range. There is extreme volatility this week. In events with the potential for low scoring such as this one, more players have a chance to contend because of the ease of the course. Literally, any player could miss the cut. This could also be the week where a $6K player actually wins. Players who are not making birdies in bunches from the opening tee on Thursday will get left behind. This is a good week to widen out your player pool a little. For me, that means going from a typical player pool of 40 players to around 50. With the wealth of solid options in the $7K range, it is really important to do your research and get that range correct this week.
f684b2f3d4218ee06dad551b3bb2074bI am also not using just one specific player core like usual. In trying to accept some of the volatility I am also using a few different cores and then mixing and matching around them. In the same vein, with the added volatility I will be looking for players with very specific traits – the best wedge players who are also consistent, or who have shown the ability to spike with their putter. I will also be adding players to my pool who, even though they might not model well, have great course history here at TPC Deere Run.
Keys to Success
In analyzing past winners at the John Deere Classic two key things stick out to focus on for selecting both the outright winner and finishing position bets – wedge play and putting. Players like Jordan Spieth, Zach Johnson, and Steve Stricker have a combined five wins here over the past 11 events. Finding the best wedge players is simple. In the model this week much of the Approach section is weighted towards the best from the proximity range of 75-150 yards. With 42% of approaches coming from that range, many of the past contenders here were ranked high in that split.
As far as the best putters, that is a bit more tricky. Obviously, we can target the players that we know are great putters such as Denny McCarthy and Cam Davis. But we have also seen the last two winners, Lucas Glover and Dylan Frittelli, who are known as “bad” putters. A perfect example of a player who fits that mold for this week’s event is Chez Reavie. He is a great ball-striker, excellent with his wedges, but ranks 108th in putting this week. He does, however, have the ability to pop and have a spike week with his putter and his recent form has been trending upwards. I also like to look back at putting history on these greens. And Reavie has gained putting in three of his last five trips here to TPC Deere Run.
Expecting a birdie-fest, I’m highly weighing Birdies or Better and Opportunites Gained within 15 feet. Even though there are only three par-5’s, players must birdie those holes to keep up with the scoring. With both fairways and greens so easy to hit, along with the scoring and putting being so easy, it brings more of the field into contention. There is not as much of a premium on ball-striking because even poor ball-strikers can still hit greens with ease here. This leads to a lot more randomness and volatility. Webb Simpson might be 3-under after the first two rounds and still miss the cut. Bo Van Pelt could get hot with his putter and be leading the tournament. Literally, anything could happen this week which means there is a great chance for a longshot type winner. It is an excellent week to take a chance on “boom or bust” type players who have extremely high upside. Patton Kizzire ($7,400) and impressive rookie Chris Gotterup ($7,300) are two players who fit that mold this week.
Silvis, IL Weather Forecast (June 30-July 3)
Top 10 Most Important Stats
*In order of importance.
- SG: APP (75-150 yds)
- SG: P (Bentgrass)
- Birdie or Better %
- Opportunities Gained
- Par 4: 400-450
- Par 5 Scoring
- Good Drive %
- Fairways Gained
- SG: Easy Scoring Courses
- Bogey Avoidance
John Deere Classic DraftKings Picks
Each week along with presenting my top choices for each of the categories below, I will include each of the pertinent stats for the specific event that comes directly from my model. Except for the “Core Plays” which most weeks will typically be somewhat on the chalky side, I will include at least one player I am positive on who is forecast to be lower-owned and who will present a good pivot from some of the higher-owned options.
Core Plays
Upper-Tier Plays
Mid-Range Plays
Value Plays
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