2022 FedEx St. Jude DFS Strategy and Picks

Strategy

As is typical with strong-field events, we have numerous difficult choices to make at the top half of the board this week. Rory McIlroy is the clear best player in the world right now and deserves any heavy ownership he gets at the very top. With so many elite plays on top, the good news is that it shouldn’t get higher than 20%. After McIlroy, I will be dropping all the way down to Justin Thomas and Jon Rahm in the lower $10K range. Thomas is the most mispriced player up here considering his course fit and history. Rahm might be the second lowest owned at around 10% and he will be my strongest play in this range. With everyone turning against Cam Smith, he looks to be a fabulous leverage play.

f684b2f3d4218ee06dad551b3bb2074b

The range I am most excited about starts with Matt Fitzpatrick at 9.8K and Will Zalatoris at $9.5K and goes down to Sungjae Im at $8.5K. With bigger names historically winning this first round of the FedExCup playoffs, my goal for every single lineup I create is to have at least three players with win equity. Fitzpatrick, Zalatoris, Cameron Young, Viktor Hovland, Collin Morikawa, Sam Burns, and Im are all great building blocks, especially if you want to skip the entire upper tier. It appears that Morikawa, Hovland and Young will be the lowest owned in this range.

As we get lower into the value ranges, my goal here is to chase after two things, upside or a high floor. For large field events, players like Tom Hoge, Sebastian Munoz and Scott Stallings are tremendous options because they have top-10 finishing potential. They also could miss the cut. Higher floor plays like Brian Harman and Cameron Tringale are great for smaller field contests and for finishing out your lineup. And then there are three of the best values on the board which I will be heavily overweight on – Corey Conners, Keith Mitchell and Aaron Wise.

Keys to Success

The stretch run for the conclusion of the 2021-2022 PGA Tour season is upon us. This first round of the playoffs is the last cut event of the season. With all the drama of the three LIV players attempting to get into this tournament, and today, being rejected, the fact remains that a good deal of depth for this first playoff round is missing. The bottom half of this field is definitely more watered down. That is definitely not good for the PGA Tour’s product, and I believe it makes it more difficult to find value in the lower price ranges. That being said, I love this course. There are so many challenging aspects to it, but not in a “major course” type of way. There is a lot of water. Good shots will be rewarded. Double bogeys will happen. It is pretty much a ball-striking paradise.

With the potential trouble off the tee and on approach shots, combined with tiny greens, we definitely want to play elite ball-strikers this week. Strokes gained off the tee and on approach were weighted much more heavily this week in the model compared to other weeks (around 35% combined). Another interesting angle related to this is that each of the past six winners was gaining an average of 1.28 strokes ball-striking coming into TPC Southwind. Whoever you choose to play, focus on golfers who enter this week in excellent ball-striking form. Most of the players that I am targeting in my lineups are elite in one or both of those areas.

With the greens at TPC Southwind being some of the easiest on Tour, I am minimizing putting performance and focusing more on players who can maximize tee-to-green (T2G) play. Each of the past six winners has finished in the top-six overall in T2G. With so many greens being missed, scrambling and around the green play should not be ignored.

Another important metric this week is Par 4 scoring. On a par-70 course with 12 par-4s and only two par-5s, par-4 scoring is heavily weighted. I have that incorporated into both the “Hole Breakdown” model and the “Scoring” model for this week. Each of the last six winners here in Memphis was inside the top-15 in par-4 scoring. With only two Par 5s on the course, scoring will be more difficult, making stats like Birdie or Better% (BoB) very significant.

Memphis, TN Weather Forecast (August 11th-August 14th)

Top 10 Most Important Stats

*In order of importance.

SG: APP (125-200 yds)
Total Driving
Fairways Gained
Par 4 Scoring
SG: T2G
Good Drive %
SG: ARG/Scrambling
Birdie or Better %
Bogeys Avoided
SG: Putting (Bermuda)

The FedEx St. Jude DraftKings Picks

Each week along with presenting my top choices for each of the categories below, I will include each of the pertinent stats for the specific event that comes directly from my model. Except for the “Core Plays,” which most weeks will typically be somewhat on the chalky side, I will include at least one player I am positive on who is forecast to be lower-owned and who will present a good pivot from some of the higher-owned options.