2022 FedEx St. Jude Championship Round 3 Betting and Showdown Picks

Best Live Outright Adds

With little outright value heading into the weekend, it’s difficult to fully endorse any plays. Similar to yesterday when I correctly predicted Si Woo Kim and Sahith Theegala would fade into the background sooner rather than later, I expect the same fate to happen to the players that sit in the top four spots on the leaderboard. With past history at this event proving that big names typically pull through and win, Tony Finau and Cameron Smith are the two clear frontrunners right now at 8-under par. The rest of the main chase pack is in that 6-under par range and include Matt Fitzpatrick, Sam Burns, Justin Thomas, and Will Zalatoris. Those four (in that order) would be my top candidates to come from behind. With each being five shots behind the lead, the best values are Burns and Zalatoris at +2200 but I can’t touch them at that number – not with Finau and Smith being two of the best players in the world at the moment. I will say that Fitzpatrick is gaining the world’s best 2.4 strokes per round on Saturdays over the past year. He would be my top choice if I had to choose one.

Weather Forecast – Memphis, TN

Round 3 Betting Matchups Model

*Strokes Gained Rating (SG RTG) is the key metric that combines all the weighted categories in the model. Some players (or matchups) may not be listed due to not having enough sample size data.