What an incredible run of Major Championship golf. Augusta, Southern Hills, Brookline, and St. Andrews did not disappoint, and we saw nothing but upper-echelon golfers in contention on Sunday at every event. So store that little nugget away for next year when the Majors roll back into our lives. We have three events remaining leading up to the FedEx Cup Playoffs, and while the field might be a bit of a letdown post-Scotland, there are still plenty of betting opportunities on the board.
This week, the Tour moves back stateside Minnesota for the 3M Open at TPC Twin Cities. Per Ron‘s course preview, TPC Twin Cities is a Par 71, 7,431-yard course that features bentgrass fairways and greens, native prairie grasses, and 13 water hazards in play that challenge golfers off the tee. Shockingly, stray drives that land in the water often lead to crooked numbers. In addition, last year, the course had the fifth-most penalty strokes per round on Tour. This makes control off the tee and Bogey Avoidance more of a premium this week compared to most other “easy scoring” courses. Even so, there should be numerous birdie opportunities and a winning score in the upper teens or higher. With the greens also playing very soft and receptive here over the years, it basically comes down to a test of who can keep their ball dry off the tee, followed by a ball-striking and a putting contest.
My goal with this piece is to touch on the golfers I’m targeting this week. There are millions of ways to bet on this beautiful game, so I’ll share my opinion on the best way to bet on each golfer in my player pool at this week’s event. When pricing out finishing position bets, I’ll often lean towards BetMGM even if there’s a better number elsewhere because of MGM’s advantageous dead-heat rules. Know the rules of the books that you’re betting on!
Please take advantage of the Discord feature and community. It’s the best way to get up-to-the-minute lines and advice, and if you need help getting started, please reach out. That’s where my full card will be posted, along with any live in-tournament bets. Betting markets are fluid, but I’ll note the best number available at the time of this writing.
*Betting lines accurate at the time of publication.
f684b2f3d4218ee06dad551b3bb2074bNoonan’s 3M Open Targets
Brendan Steele
After missing five straight cuts to start 2022, Brendan Steele has been a completely different golfer. His ball-striking numbers are off the charts. Regardless of the time frame, 20 rounds, 3 months, 6 months, Brendan Steele tops this field in ball-striking. Over the past 3 months, Steele has gained 2.2 strokes per round. Tony Finau ranks second in this field during the same time frame but has gained just 1.22 strokes on the field per round. That’s a huge gap. The putter has kept him down the board a bit, but he gained strokes putting at the PGA Championship and Memorial and finished inside the top 10 at both events. A field-average putting week against this field is all we need for Brendan Steele to be in the mix come Sunday.
- Win: 40/1 DraftKings
- Top 20: +140 BetMGM
Cam Davis
I’m always a fan of Cam Davis and often look his way in weaker fields when driving distance is an advantage, though his T3 at Heritage back in April shows that he’s developing a more well-rounded game. He comes to Minnesota in form, having finished T8 at the John Deere Classic and then solo sixth at last week’s Barracuda Championship. He ranks inside the top 20 in all the metrics I’m weighing this week, outside of driving accuracy. If he’s able to stay out of danger off the tee, another top 10 is well within reach. I strongly considered adding him as an outright, but the number is just too short for me. I’ll look to add him live, if possible.
Joohyung (Tom) Kim
The buzz around Tom Kim is strong. So strong that the 20-year-old’s outright number is 28/1 or below at most books this week. Our friends at BetMGM were generous enough to hang a 40, so I had to jump. Kim has dominated the Asian Tour circuit since he was 17 and has begun to earn his way into PGA Tour fields over the past few months. He’s shown to be above-average throughout the bag and incredibly accurate off the tee. That recipe of fairways and greens worked for him at the Byron Nelson, where he finished T17 in his first PGA Tour event of 2022. He did more of the same in Scotland on his way to a solo third at the Genesis Scottish Open, bookended by making the cut at both the U.S. Open (23rd) and last week’s Open Championship (T47).
This is a bet on pedigree, along with finding a price significantly different from the rest of the market.
Adam Svensson
Another golfer that can plot around hitting fairways and greens is Adam Svensson. He finished solo sixth last time out at the Barbasol Championship, his fourth straight T25 or better finish. Already an exceptional ball-striker, Svensson has spoken recently about an early season change in his practice routine, shifting to more work on and around the greens. Finally, that work is paying off. Svensson has gained strokes putting in seven straight events and has made the cut in every start. I don’t think you’ll find any 55’s out there in the market right now, but he’s worth considering north of 40.
- Top Win: 55/1 DraftKings
- Top 20: +180 BetMGM
FanDuel Finishing Position Parlay
Davis Riley and Chris Gotterup – T40 (+177)
This is a relatively new entry to the space, thanks to our friends at FanDuel. Unlike most other books I’m familiar with, FanDuel allows you to parlay finishing position bets. Now, the very premise of the bet is flawed because the expected value is negative since players are competing for the same finishing positions. If the bet is two T40s like this one, when one leg of your parlay finishes above the threshold, there’s now one less spot available in that range for the other leg(s) also to come in. I know the math is terrible. Spare me. But let’s be honest. Some bets are just fun, and these are fun for me. I want to continue to be long on these two young up-and-coming talents.
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Featured Image – Sam Greenwood/Getty Images