The Farmers Insurance Open is typically one of the easier golf tournaments to predict. History tells us two things about this event. It tends to be dominated by the longer hitters and is also usually won by a world-class player. So unlike the first few events of this year, do not expect a longshot winner this week. As the past “Winning Trends” show, the victor is almost always one of the 30 best players in the world along with having at least multiple past wins on Tour. Long and straight off the tee is vital. Considering how many greens are missed in regulation, a good percentage of the past winners at this event have also been very good scramblers around the greens.
This will be one of the ultimate true tests of golf that await players this year. There is no way to fake it around Torrey Pines. Either you have every shot in your bag or you don’t. With the exception of wet conditions due to all the rainfall earlier in the week, the weather looks quite benign. Both bombers and shorter hitters have won this event, but the shorter hitters had two very important things in common. They were mostly accurate off the tee and were elite scramblers and putters on Poa grass. While there are routes to success for shorter hitters off the tee, it is a much tougher task this week.
From the bomber category, we have seen Luke List, Justin Rose, Jon Rahm, Scott Stallings, Tiger Woods, and Bubba Watson triumph. On the short-game side, Patrick Reed, Jason Day, Brandt Snedeker (twice), and Ben Crane. Interestingly, many of the bombers also have quality short games. Last year, Max Homa emerged victorious thanks to his elite all-around game in every area.
To summarize, there is a specific type of player we should be targeting this week. They should be, preferably, longer hitters off the tee and accurate on approach from 175+ yards. They should be successful par-5 scorers, good scramblers around the green, and historically good-to-average putters on Poa grass. Also, experience and past success at this event and on other long and difficult courses should be another important factor we consider.
Strategy
This tournament is an entirely different ball game compared to the past few events. Scoring will be at a premium, as will bogey avoidance. I’ll be focusing on many of the key metrics in the section below. One area to especially focus on for DFS is par-5 scoring. Those holes will account for about 36% of the scoring this week.
As is the case in most events which usually produce a winner from the upper-tier, it is hard to separate players at the top of the board. This week, due to the quality of players below them, I will be underweight on both Xander Schauffele and Patrick Cantlay. My favorite plays up top that I will be overweight on include Collin Morikawa, Max Homa and Min Woo Lee.
The entire $7K/upper $6K range is full of course fits for Torrey Pines. This allows for using 2-3 guys in the upper tier and then 3-4 from that $7k range. When I say course fits, I’m talking distance, long-iron play, scrambling, and positive poa putters. All of these players don’t meet all four metrics but the list of players in the $6-7K range that I am high on include…Luke List, Robert Macintyre, Ryan Fox, Sam Ryder, Joseph Bramlett, Taylor Montgomery, J.J. Spaun, and Jhonattan Vegas. With multi-entry, I will be mixing and matching all of these guys with the elite players $9K and above up top.
I love using specific skill-stacks this week. If you don’t know what those are, it is when you load up your lineup with players who are elite at one skill. For this week, bombers off the tee is the main one I will use, followed by elite long-iron playerss who are also excellent scramblers.
As with last week’s The American Express, the first two rounds will split the field across the North and South Courses. The North Course plays much easier than the South Course. Showdown players should load up on golfers playing on the North Course on Wednesday and Thursday.
Most Important Stats For Success at Torrey Pines
*In order of importance
- Scrambling/SG: ARG
- Total Driving
- SG: Approach
- SG: Putting (Poa)
- Bogey Avoidance
- Par 5 Scoring
- Proximity 175+ yds
- SG: Torrey Pines Course History
- SG: Putting (Inside 15 feet)
- SG: Long and Difficult Courses
Weather Forecast – La Jolla, California
American Express – DraftKings Picks
Core Plays
Collin Morikawa 10.2K
M.W. Lee 9.1K
Sahith Theegala 8.7K
Will Zalatoris 8.0K
Upper Tier
Max Homa 10.1K
Ludvig Aberg 9.7K
Jason Day 9.5K
Mid-Range
Tony Finau 9.3K
Keegan Bradley 8.9K
Sepp Straka 8.6K
Justin Rose 8.3K
Nicolai Hojgaard 8.4K
Value Plays
Luke List 7.8K
Robert Macintyre 6.8K
Ryan Fox 7.5K
Sam Ryder 7.2K
Joseph Bramlett 6.8K
Francesco Molinari 6.7K
Michael Kim 7.3K
Taylor Montgomery 7.4K
Ben Griffin 7.7K
J.J. Spaun 7.3K
Tom Hoge 7.2K
Lee Hodges 6.9K
Justin Suh 7.2K
Jhonnthan Vegas 6.7K
Chan Kim 6.7K