2024 The Sentry – Round 4 Betting and Showdown Picks

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With a good mix of young players, stars, and Tour veterans near the top of the leaderboard, it appears to be a wide-open sprint to the finish in Sunday’s final round. The top 16 players on the leaderboard are only separated by five shots. At the top, I don’t believe that Kirk and Bhatia have much of a shot. There is simply too much firepower hot on their tails. Bhatia has also never been anywhere near the top of the leaderboard in a field this strong. And you saw what happened to a past major winner in Morikawa on Sunday here last year – the pressure hit hard. As for Chris Kirk, he has faded plenty of times in the final round, so much so that he has a negative stroke gained average on Sundays.

I also don’t believe Ben An’s first win will come here in this field. He has rarely even been in the mix down the stretch on Sundays and has lost -0.2 SG per round in his last 24 final rounds. For me, Scheffler is the best play at +650. Schauffele is my 2nd favorite to win followed by Cantlay, Morikawa, and Theegala.

Weather Forecast – Kapalua, Hawaii

Winds will be as light as they have been all week, so scoring chances will be constant on almost every hole. I would not be surprised to see someone in the top-10 shoot a 62 or better and finish with a winning score of 30-under.

Player Post-Round Interviews

https://asaptext.com/orgs/pgatour/1149/

Round 4 Betting Matchups Model

*Strokes Gained Rating (SG RTG) is the key metric that combines all the weighted categories in the model. Some players (or matchups) may not be listed due to insufficient sample size data.