PGA Tour +/- Splits: 1st and 4th Round Scoring

In this series, we will examine how current PGA Tour players have performed above or below their baseline on specific types of courses or in specific conditions. For this research, and to draw sharper contrasts in player skill, it will not be a golfer’s Strokes Gained (SG) Total baseline that will be analyzed. Instead, it will be their baseline in the opposite data point of what we are comparing it with to best identify those players with the greatest SG Total disparity between the two categories.

Today we are analyzing the best and worst players in gaining strokes in the first and final rounds of events and then comparing those results to their baseline in all other rounds. With each round being special and unique in its own way it’s not a perfect comparison to treat each one equally. Some players might be shaking off the rust in the first round, while In the second, players tend to either be more aggressive or more cautious as they either push their limits to make the cut or play more conservatively to ensure they make the weekend.

The final two rounds are typically composed of higher quality players and have fewer golfers overall in the field thanks to the cut-line. The third round is known as “Moving Day” when players will take more chances to move up the leaderboard to be in a better position to contend on Sunday. And of course, Sundays in golf are packed with pressure for the top-end of the field who are trying their best to bring home the elusive winning trophy.

Certain golfers are notorious for always seeming to be near the top of the leaderboard after the first round. Keegan Bradley and Justin Suh are two names that come to mind for being first-round stalwarts on my betting card. Suh is indeed ranked inside the top 30 on Tour in first-round scoring.

As for pressure-packed Sundays, elite players like Rory McIlroy, Patrick Cantlay, and Tom Kim seemingly rarely have a bad day while other upper-tier players including Jordan Spieth, Tommy Fleetwood, and Sahith Theegala have wilted under the nerves of the final round. Justin Suh is in his own special category of being allergic to Sunday pressure. He is one of the worst players in round four scoring, resulting in the lowest fourth-round “plus-minus” on Tour by a large margin.So let’s check the data and see if some of these assumptions about certain players are correct. Golfers need at least 14 rounds to qualify and the time frame goes back to 2019.