The PGA Tour heads to the eastern seaboard bringing the tournament calendar to a close at the idyllic Sea Island Resort in St. Simons Island, Georgia. This week’s RSM Classic is the final event of the 2023 year. and after its conclusion, the top 125 in the FedExCup standings going into next year will be finalized.
The RSM Classic has produced numerous longshot champions over the years including the likes of Robert Streb (twice), Tyler Duncan, and Austin Cook among others. Each winner here has a similar recipe for success – hit fairways, attack pins on approach, and get hot on the greens.
As is the case with most coastal courses, the strength of the wind is the X-factor. Yet even with numerous “windy” rounds, over the 13 events played here, the average winning score has been 18-under par. The data shows that both the Seaside and Plantation courses used in this event are among the easiest played on Tour in numerous statistical categories.
With daylight at a premium in mid-November, this event is still able to pack a full field of 156 thanks to the use of the two courses. Golfers will play both the Sea Island and Plantation courses one time before the 36-hole cut takes place with the top 65 and ties advancing on to play the weekend solely on the Seaside course.
The Field
In what is typically a weak-field event here on St. Simons Island, this final event of the year has an actual legitimate field with 11 players ranked in the top-50 of the Official World Golf Rankings. The Open Championship winner, Brian Harman leads the way, followed by Cameron Young, Russell Henley, Corey Conners, Denny McCarthy, and Harris English each ranked inside the top-40. 63rd-ranked Adam Svensson returns to defend his victory from last year. Rookie sensation, Ludvig Aberg is in the field as well and has seven consecutive top-15 finishes.
The top 125 players in the FedExCup Fall standings after this week will secure their 2024 Tour membership, earning spots in each full-field Event along with THE PLAYERS Championship. Those who finish ranked 51-60 will get into two “Signature Events” in 2024 – The Genesis Invitational and the AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am.
The RSM Classic has provided some memorable finishes as four of the last seven editions have gone to a playoff. One of the ironies of this event is that first-time Tour winners have had more success at Sea Island than the locals who call this course their home – none of whom have actually won the RSM ClassicNumerous members of the “Sea Island Mafia” as they are called will tee it up again this week hoping for better results including J.T. Poston, Brian Harman, Harris English, Patton Kizzire, Zach Johnson, Matt Kuchar, Keith Mitchell, Andrew Novak, and Greyson Sigg.
Betting Strategies
For the RSM Classic this week, the first statistic in the “Core 4” is a combination of Fairways Gained and Good Drive %. Good Drive percentage helps identify golfers that consistently put themselves in position off the tee to hit the green in regulation, which is really all that’s required at Sea Island. While the Seaside course (where three of the rounds will be played) does have massively wide fairways, there is still danger for golfers who are wild off the tee as a majority of holes do have water and marshland areas in play.
These danger areas have caused Seaside to have the highest rate of penalty shots from off the tee since 2015. Also, most of the 13 “water danger” holes have hazards that affect golfers off the tee instead of on approach. The best players for this metric at the RSM are Russell Henley, Si Woo Kim, Doug Ghim, Denny McCarthy, Brendon Todd and Matthew NeSmith.
The second metric that makes up the “Core 4” this week is my Approach model which emphasizes wedge-to-middle-iron play from 100-175 yards. Since this week ultimately does boil down to a putting contest thanks to wide fairways and large greens, having the skill to attack flags on the correct side of these sloped greens will be key. Over the past two events here, 11 of the top 14 players on the leaderboard gained at least 3.5 strokes on approach. The best “approach” players in the field using my 100-175 yard proximity model are Eric Cole, Chris Kirk, Charley Hoffman, Chesson Hadley, Satoshi Kodaira, Ryan Moore, Russell Henley, and Patton Kizzire.
The third important part of the “Core 4” is the Strokes Gained Putting model. To state it simply, making putts on these grainy TifEagle Bermuda greens will be huge this week. Last year, 38% of all strokes gained were with the flat stick in what essentially becomes a putting contest year after year. Because neither course has many difficulties in the tee-to-green areas, Sea Island does not allow players to separate from the field based on their ball-striking skills. With a focus on past Bermuda putting performance, the best putters in this field are Brendon Todd, Denny McCarthy, Mackenzie Hughes, Ben Taylor, Taylor Montgomery, Chesson Hadley, Brian Gay, Kevin Kisner, Harris English, Maverick McNealy, and Thomas Detry.
Finally, with an average winning score of 18-under par over the past 13 years of this event. The data shows that both the Seaside and Plantation courses used in this event are among the easiest played on Tour in numerous statistical categories. Stats like Birdie or Better %, Scoring Chances Gained (inside 15 feet) and par-4 scoring were combined into one “Scoring” metric. The best players in this model include Ludvig Aberg, Russell Henley, Brian Harman, Eric Cole, Corey Conners, Alex Smalley, J.T. Poston, Sam Ryder, and Adam Svensson.
Top 10 Most Important Stats
*In order of importance.
- SG: Approach (100-175 yds)
- SG: Putting (Bermuda)
- Good Drive %
- Scoring Chances Gained
- Fairways Gained
- Birdie or Better %
- Par 4 Scoring
- Par 5 Scoring
- SG: Comp Courses
- SG: Short Courses
RSM Classic – Final Model
In each preview article and on Discord, I present my final model, which gives a detailed player ranking of the most important stats and splits for the week. My modeling is built around the PGA’s Strokes Gained data, which is divided into SG: Off the Tee (OTT), SG: Approach (APP), SG: Around the Green (ARG), and SG: Putting (P). Learn more about Strokes Gained and why it can be so useful in analyzing the past and predicting future performance. Many of the individual splits will be posted on my Twitter feed, with the final model exclusively published here for subscribers.
Outright Betting Selections
*Lines accurate at the time of publication.
Brian Harman +2200
As one of the numerous “Georgia guys” in this event, Harman is finishing the best season of his PGA career this week. With an elite wedge game and one of the best putters in this field, Harman should excel at Sea Island where distance off the tee means little. He ranks first on short courses, fourth on coastal courses, and 12th in the fall swing going back to 2020. The Open Championship winner finished runner-up here last year and is my top choice to raise the trophy come Sunday.
(1.09u) BetRivers
Eric Cole +3300
Coming off three top-four finishes in his last four starts, Cole continues to churn out top-25 finishes or better almost every week. The exciting part for his upward progress is that because he has such little experience on most of these courses, his continued play each year only adds to his course knowledge. After finishing 39th here last year, with their reliance on wedge play and Bermuda putting, these courses fit his game perfectly and give him one more chance this year to gain his first PGA Tour victory.
(0.72u) DraftKings
Brendon Todd +4000
With superior wedge play and Bermuda putting being a constant theme, Todd once again fits the bill. He is one of the best par-4 players in the field and in proximity from 100-150 yards. His main weakness off the tee is completely mitigated here which allows him to shine on approach and with his short game. And he is even better than Harman in the three special metrics this week, ranking first on short courses, second on coastal courses, and eighth in the fall swing going back to 2020.
(0.60u) BetMGM
Denny McCarthy +4500
While there is some fear of McCarthy needing to shake off some rust considering he hasn’t played since the BMW Championship over two months ago, the odds combined with the setup at Sea Island is too good a fit to pass over. With two top-10s here in his past four trips, his improved wedge game along with his prowess on the greens should allow him to be in the hunt for his first career win.
(0.53u) BetRivers
Finishing Position Picks – all BetRivers
Top 20
- Ludvig Aberg +100 (1.3u)
- Russell Henley +100 (1.4u)
- Brian Harman +138 (1u)
- Corey Conners +138 (1u)
Top 30
- J.T. Poston +100 (1.3u)
- Eric Cole +110 (1.2u)
- Denny McCarthy +110 (1.1u)
- Brendon Todd +110 (1.1u)
- Alex Noren +110 (1u)
- Adam Svensson 125 (1u)
Top 40
- Keith Mitchell -110 (1.5u)
- Matthew NeSmith +110 (1u)
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Photo by Mike Mulholland/Getty Images