As the calendar season for the PGA Tour heads down the final stretch, 78 golfers will make the trip to the Accordia Golf Narashino Country Club for this no-cut event. Set just outside Japan’s expansive capital city of Tokyo, the ZOZO Championship is currently the only PGA Tour event held in Asia.
The course is a shorter Par 70 and features narrow tree-lined fairway corridors, six dogleg holes, five par 3s, and smaller-than-average bentgrass greens. It is definitely a course unique to Japanese-style golf. This will be the fourth edition of the ZOZO Championship in Japan.
Weather conditions have affected each of the three previous events here. Back in 2019, the course played slightly under par but had to deal with the remnants of a monsoon and was inundated with six inches of rainfall. In 2021, cold and rainy conditions made play difficult and the course played a half-stroke over par. And then last year’s first round dealt with rainy conditions and the course ended up playing 0.85 strokes under par.
The Field
At the same course where Tiger Woods earned his 82nd PGA Tour victory in 2019 to tie Sam Snead’s record, Keegan Bradley will return to defend his win from last year. Overall, 16 of the top 50 players in the Official World Golf Ranking are committed to the ZOZO Championship, including Japan’s favorite son, and 2021 ZOZO Championship winner, Hideki Matsuyama. Xander Schauffele will make his first start since finishing second at the TOUR Championship.
Other notable players in attendance include Rickie Fowler, Sungjae Im, Min Woo Lee, Collin Morikawa, Adam Scott, and Sahith Theegala. There are currently 67 golfers in the field with the 11 remaining spots in the field to be filled by the top eight available from the Japan Golf Tour’s money list through this week’s Japan Open Golf Championship and three sponsor exemptions restricted to Japan Golf Tour members.
A full 500 FedExCup points will be awarded to the winner. While there are plenty of golfers who are already inside the top 50 of the FedExCup standings which were finalized at the conclusion of the Tour Championship, there remains much to play for. Some in the field will be jockeying for valuable FedExCup Fall points, while others will be looking to nail a spot in “The Next 10”. Ben Griffin is currently in the 51st spot on the FedExCup standings and is first on “The Next 10” list, while S.H. Kim is at No. 60 – both of whom are teeing it up in Japan.
Betting Strategies
Even without strokes gained data from this course to rely on, the recipe for success at Narashino Country Club seems quite clear. To start, this is not an “easy scoring” layout. Over the first three iterations of this event, the average score has been only slightly under par. Poor weather conditions in the form of wind and rain have affected play. This year, while there is no rain in the forecast, gusty winds are predicted on both Thursday and Friday. One of the narratives I am chasing from my outright bets to finishing position selections is players who perform better in tougher scoring conditions.
As for the course itself, it will be positional golf off the tee (OTT). I hear numerous”experts” claiming that driving distance is crucial here. But I’m not buying it. First of all, there has not been enough sample size at this course to determine that yet, and secondly, with six doglegs and fairways that are “packed” with trees, the bombers are not able to freely cut corners.
So finding fairways is key, but at the same time players need to be on the correct side of the hole, even if they are in the rough, to get the best angle to attack these smaller-than-average greens. I am completely staying away from erratic drivers OTT (like Eric Cole). Instead of playing through the tree line, players who hit wayward shots will have to pitch their ball back into the fairway and will struggle to make par. On approach shots, ball-striking with mostly mid-to-long irons will be crucial. It is not coincidence that the two winners on this course, Tiger Woods and Hideki Matsuyama, are two of the best iron players ever.
There is also a path for good scramblers to have success here. With an average Greens in Regulation rate, players will miss greens. Past leaderboards have seen numerous high finishers from players with strong short games including Mackenzie Hughes, Matt Wallace, and last year with Rickie Fowler and Sahith Theegala both finishing in the top five. With ball-striking being such a challenge here, putting on these pure bentgrass greens seems to be the easiest part of the course. In my model this week, I heavily weighted Opportunities Gained, which measures how often a player hits their approach shot to within 15 feet of the hole. Because scoring is difficult, players do not have to make every single putt to succeed here at Narashino. This event is definitely not a birdie-fest. This is why we have seen poor putters have success here including players like Matsuyama, Corey Conners and Keegan Bradley.
Finally, with this event being in Japan, players with experience on the DP World Tour who have played around the globe will also be heavily featured in my selections. Golfers like Sungjae Im, Min Woo Lee, Adam Scott, Kurt Kitayama and Thomas Detry have an advantage in that area from their past experiences. With a large portion of the American players in this field lacking overseas experience, I will lean more on the “international” players in this event.
Top 10 Most Important Stats
- SG: APP
- Good Drive %
- Scrambling
- SG: Putting (Bent)
- Opportunites Gained
- Proximity (150-200 yds)
- Total Driving
- Fairways Gained
- SG: Tough Scoring Conditions
- Bogeys Avoided
ZOZO Championship – Final Model
In each preview article and on Discord, I present my final model, which gives a detailed player ranking of the most important stats and splits for the week. My modeling is built around the PGA’s Strokes Gained data, which is divided into SG: Off the Tee (OTT), SG: Approach (APP), SG: Around the Green (ARG), and SG: Putting (P). Learn more about Strokes Gained and why it can be so useful in analyzing the past and predicting future performance. Many of the individual splits will be posted on my Twitter feed, with the final model exclusively published here for subscribers.
Outright Betting Selections
*Lines accurate at the time of publication.
Sungjae Im +1400
With Im having played in Korea last week and finishing second in the Genesis Championship, he has an advantage over many of his PGA Tour competitors who are traveling from America. He officially avoided Korean military service by winning a silver medal at the Asian games a few weeks ago and looks to be riding a high into this week’s ZOZO Championship. His skill off the tee combined with his all-around game on challenging courses should have him near the top of the leaderboard. The fifth highest-ranked player in this field, Im finished third here back in 2019.
(1.71u) BetRivers
Hideki Matsuyama +1700
The condition of Matsuyama’s game has been a mystery of sorts lately. He has not played competitively since the BMW Championship after which he returned home to Japan for treatment and is reportedly in much better health. In the three years at this course, he has an excellent history that includes a win and a runner-up finish. Matsuyama has always taken great pride in playing in his home country and I would expect him to be at the top of his game this week.
(1.41u) BetRivers
Tom Hoge +8000 (currently +6600)
Back to the Hoge well we go as he is one of the true “boom or bust” players in this field. This is a great value price for a player who is one of the best iron players in the world at a course where ball-striking is vital. Even more of a plus is that has definitely taken a liking to Narashino Country Club with finishes of 17th and 9th in his two trips here.
(0.30u) BetMGM
Finishing Position Picks
Top 10 – all BetRivers
- Collin Morikawa +125 (1u)
- Sungjae Im +140 (1u)
- Hideki Matsuyama +175 (1u)
Top 20
- Keegan Bradley -119 (1.2u) – BetRivers
- Adam Scott +100 (1.5u) – BetMGM
- Adam Schenk +150 (1u) – FanDuel
- Adam Svensson +150 (1u) – FanDuel
Top 30 – all BetRivers
- Aaron Rai -120 (1.2u)
- Nick Taylor +100 (1u)
- Lee Hodges +105 (1u)
- Sam Ryder +125 (1u)
- Tom Hoge +138 (1u)
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Photo by Sam Greenwood/Getty Images