Strategy
f684b2f3d4218ee06dad551b3bb2074bSimilar to other fall events this year, the ZOZO Championship field is weaker than in years past. There are a few more upper-tier golfers playing this week in Xander Schauffele, Hideki Matsuyama, Rickie Fowler, Collin Morikawa, and Keegan Bradley. But with only 78 players in the field, and every player getting four rounds, these events are always tricky in separating your lineups from others.
With the ZOZO Championship being a no-cut event, there is stability in knowing that every golfer you roster is guaranteed four rounds. Since the lack of a cut offers no separation on the field, every effort must be made to make unique lineups using different strategies. Obviously, leaving salary on the table is one option. Another one that I like even more is using a “Stars and Scrubs” approach. You can take more chances trying to load the upper-tier players into your lineup because everyone is guaranteed four rounds. So even though players like Xander Schauffele, Sungjae Im, and Collin Morikawa might have one average-to-bad round, their three good-to-great rounds, and potential to win, will outweigh some of the more middling players.
I also think in these small-field events it is always better to be more aggressive and tighten up your player pool. For this week, mine will be around 20-25 players. With so many good options $8.5K and above I will plant my flags on a few lower-owned players in the lower ranges and spread out my ownership on top. The value plays that I love this week include Sam Ryder, Lee Hodges, Nick Taylor, Davis Riley, and Keita Nakajima.
The Course and Important Stats
In terms of what to look for in this week, ball striking reigns supreme. You can’t fake your way around this place. It ranks as the 13th toughest annual course and plays only slightly under par. While putting is important, as we have seen with past winners here like Hideki Matsuyama and Keegan Bradley, you don’t need to make everything on the greens here to have success.
Even without strokes gained data from this course to rely on, the recipe for success at Narashino Country Club seems quite clear. Along with it not being an easy course to score, poor weather conditions in the form of wind and rain have affected play. This year, while there is no rain in the forecast, gusty winds are predicted on both Thursday and Friday. One of the narratives I am chasing in my player pool selection is golfers who perform better in tougher scoring conditions.
As for the course itself, it will be positional golf off the tee (OTT). I hear numerous” experts” claiming that driving distance is crucial here. But I’m not buying it. First of all, there has not been enough sample size at this course to determine that yet, and secondly, with six doglegs and fairways that are “packed” with trees, the bombers are not able to freely cut corners.
So finding fairways is key, but at the same time, players need to be on the correct side of the hole, even if they are in the rough, to get the best angle to attack these smaller-than-average greens. I am completely staying away from erratic drivers OTT (like Eric Cole). Instead of playing through the tree line, players who hit wayward shots will have to pitch their ball back into the fairway and will struggle to make par. On approach shots, ball-striking with mostly mid-to-long irons will be crucial. It is not a coincidence that the two winners on this course, Tiger Woods and Hideki Matsuyama, are two of the best iron players ever.
There is also a path for good scramblers to have success here. With an average Greens in Regulation rate, players will miss greens. Past leaderboards have seen numerous high finishers from players with strong short games including Mackenzie Hughes, Matt Wallace, and last year with Rickie Fowler and Sahith Theegala both finishing in the top five.
With ball-striking being such a challenge here, putting on these pure bentgrass greens seems to be the easiest part of the course. In my model this week, I heavily weighted Opportunities Gained, which measures how often a player hits their approach shot to within 15 feet of the hole. Because scoring is difficult, players do not have to make every single putt to succeed here at Narashino. This event is definitely not a birdie-fest. This is why we have seen poor putters have success here including players like Matsuyama, Corey Conners and Keegan Bradley.
Finally, with this event being in Japan, players with experience on the DP World Tour who have played around the globe will also be heavily featured in my selections. Golfers like Sungjae Im, Min Woo Lee, Adam Scott, Kurt Kitayama and Thomas Detry have an advantage in that area from their past experiences. With a large portion of the American players in this field lacking overseas experience, I will lean more on the “international” players in this event.
Top 10 Most Important Stats
- SG: APP
- Good Drive %
- Scrambling
- SG: Putting (Bent)
- Opportunites Gained
- Proximity (150-200 yds)
- Total Driving
- Fairways Gained
- SG: Tough Scoring Conditions
- Bogeys Avoided
ZOZO Championship – DraftKings Picks
Each week along with presenting my top choices for each of the categories below, I will include each of the pertinent stats for the specific event that comes directly from my model. Except for the “Core Plays,” which most weeks will typically be somewhat on the chalky side, I will include at least one player I am positive on who is forecast to be lower-owned and who will present a good pivot from some of the higher-owned options. In essence, the players you see below make up the majority of my player pool for this event.
Core Plays
Upper Tier Plays
Mid-Range Plays
Value Plays
