2023 Shriners Open – DraftKings Picks

Strategy

This week’s Shriners Open will test the patience of every DFS player out there. With an event where scoring is so frequent, and on a short course where every single golfer is in play, the variance will most likely be of the extreme version. Three years ago the cut-line was 7-under. Imagine having multiple players at 6-under and seeing them miss the weekend.

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Because of this high variance, it is highly encouraged to widen your player pool if playing multiple entries. I typically enter between 50-100 lineups and keep my player pool very tight at between 35-40 golfers. This week, I am extending it out to around 50-60.

Another issue to consider is the handful of upper-tier golfers who have not played a competitive round of golf in close to two months. There might be a solid edge in fading some of these higher-priced players like JT Poston, Adam Hadwin, etc who have not played since the FedExCup Playoffs in August. Because this is a true birdie-fest. If you are not scoring from the opening tee on Thursday, you have no chance of making the cut.

Personally, I love both Poston and Hadwin too much on this type of course to fade them so they will be in my player pool thanks again to the variance we are dealing with this week. Though I was burned last week by completely fading Ludvig Aberg off his Ryder Cup high, I won’t be making the same mistake again, but I will be playing him only with my best lineups and very underweight compared to the field. Along with fatigue setting in, with TPC Summerlin being such a short course and non-penal off the tee (unless you are spraying it), it mitigates much of his advantage in this area. He might prove me wrong again, but I much prefer him on tougher courses where he does not need to make a birdie on every third hole.

Missed cuts by elite players are common here at TPC Summerlin where the Austin Cook’s of the world can get hot and fire off 62s with ease. There is a ton of depth and even win equity in the $6K-$7K range to where you can play two upper-tier golfers and feel halfway decent about it. I will play around 30% of Tom Kim and spread the rest around up top. I will be fading Lucas Herbert and Luke List and will be above the field ownership on Adam Schenk, Tom Hoge, Adam Svensson, Justin Suh, Sam Ryder, and Harry Hall.

The Course and Important Stats

At TPC Summerlin, birdies and eagles, along with strictly limiting bogeys, are the name of the game at this track meet of a golf event. Golfers will most likely need to be at least 5-under to make the cut and around 20-under to put themselves in contention on Sunday. Two years ago the cut line was 7-under. TPC Summerlin has the highest Greens in Regulation and Birdie or Better % on Tour. It has the fourth fewest bogeys, the fifth easiest Par 5s, is the third easiest to gain off the tee, and the eighth easiest to gain putting. Golfers will need to put the pedal down here from the opening tee shot on Thursday.

TPC Summerlin is a Par 71, 7200 yds, desert parkland course that plays even shorter thanks to 2,700 feet of elevation. While players can bomb it off the tee (OTT) this week, I am not weighing SG: OTT performance highly in the model because there are so many ways to attack the course from the tee box. Seven of the last nine winners here finished in top-20 for Driving Accuracy for the week. But TPC Summerlin also has the 2nd longest Driving Distance on Tour and there is very little danger OTT. Because the course is so short, players don’t need to take driver off the tee on many holes. While the Bermuda rough can be unpredictable, it is not that penal. Nonetheless, because you need to score birdie after birdie here, playing from the fairway is clearly the biggest advantage OTT. Players have been very emphatic on that point when describing the course.

There are numerous golfers in this event who reside in the Las Vegas area and are ultra-familiar with this course. I do not believe familiarity with the course itself is a huge advantage this week, but I do believe their experience playing at this elevation presents a small edge for these players in that they should have more distance control with their club selection. For that reason, I have slightly bumped up certain locals in the model including Justin Suh, Taylor Montgomery, and Harry Hall among others.

The four main stats in the “Core 4” that I believe are the most important for this week include Strokes Gained (SG) on Approach, SG: Putting, Scoring (Birdie or Better %, Chances Gained inside 15 feet, Par 5 Scoring), and SG on “Easy Scoring” courses.

The most important area I’m targeting is approach play combined with the ability to get hot on these greens. The proximity to the hole data tells us that this is one of the few areas where this course is tougher than average. And that’s because they tend to place the pins into very tight areas and corners of the greens. So approach play is the only one of the metrics where players strong in that area can gain separation on the field. 34% of approaches are from 100-150 yards. We definitely want to target players good with their wedges from that range.

Looking at past winners, there are so many good putters on the list. Quite honestly, if you can keep your ball in the fairway, the 11 par-4s turn into a wedge-fest putting contest. Whoever can get those approach shots closest to the pin and sink the most putts will be raising the trophy on Sunday. And of course, players almost need to birdie every single par-5 with the occasional eagle mixed in as well.

Finally, with the need to score really low, I created an “SG: Easy Scoring” course metric that looks back at performance on other high-scoring tracks. You would be surprised at how many elite players perform below their baseline in these types of events. Players like Lucas Herbert and Beau Hossler have historically struggled on these “easy” courses. On the other hand, players like Tom Hoge and J.T. Poston have performed well above their baseline in these situations, and I am heavily invested in them as either an outright selection or high finishing position.

Most Important Stats For Success at TPC Summerlin

*In order of importance

Birdie or Better %
SG: Putting (Bentgrass)
SG: APP
SG: Easy Scoring Courses
SG: Par 4: 400-450
Good Drive %
Proximity: 100-150
Par 5 Scoring
SG: ARG (Bermuda)
Course History – TPC Summerlin

Shriners Open – DraftKings Picks

Each week along with presenting my top choices for each of the categories below, I will include each of the pertinent stats for the specific event that comes directly from my model. Except for the “Core Plays,” which most weeks will typically be somewhat on the chalky side, I will include at least one player I am positive on who is forecast to be lower-owned and who will present a good pivot from some of the higher-owned options. In essence, the players you see below make up the majority of my player pool for this event.