The PGA Tour heads west to Las Vegas for its annual stop at TPC Summerlin, home of the Shriners Children’s Open. Located about 20 minutes west of the Las Vegas Strip at the base of the Red Rock Canyon, TPC Summerlin is a desert parkland course that plays at around 2,700 feet of elevation.
TPC Summerlin features an exciting finishing stretch which includes a driveable par 4 and a reachable par 5 over water. The course meanders through canyons and arroyos and showcases numerous water holes and lush bentgrass greens. Known as one of the easiest courses on Tour, players will have to bring an aggressive mindset from the first tee on Thursday. And not just to be in the mix come Sunday, but also to have any chance of playing the weekend as the cut-line has been 4-under or better in three of the last four tournaments. That being said, the Bermuda rough is gnarly and has a reputation for being one of the toughest courses on Tour in which to chip.
The Field
Compared to the weaker field at last week’s Sanderson Farms Championship where only two of the top 50 ranked players in the world were in attendance, the level of competition takes a jump this week as eight of the top 50 players and 28 of the top 100 will be teeing it up in Las Vegas. Defending champion, and world No. 16, Tom Kim stands alone in the upper tier this week. Other top 50 players in attendance include Emiliano Grillo, Si Woo Kim, Adam Schenk, J.T. Poston, Cameron Davis, Nick Taylor and Tom Hoge.
The Shriners is the third of seven events on the FedExCup Fall schedule, which means players are jockeying for key spots in the FedExCup standings over the coming weeks. It has been a breakthrough event for many different players who earned their first Tour victory here including Tiger Woods. There will be 144 golfers in the field with 500 FedExCup points and a two-year PGA Tour exemption on the line. The cut line on Friday will include the top 65 and ties.
Betting Strategies
At TPC Summerlin, birdies and eagles, along with strictly limiting bogeys, are the name of the game at this track meet of a golf event. Golfers will most likely need to be at least 5-under to make the cut and around 20-under to put themselves in contention on Sunday. Two years ago the cut line was 7-under. TPC Summerlin has the highest Greens in Regulation and Birdie or Better % on Tour. It has the fourth fewest bogeys, the fifth easiest Par 5s, is the third easiest to gain off the tee, and the eighth easiest to gain putting. Golfers will need to put the pedal down here from the opening tee shot on Thursday.
TPC Summerlin is a Par 71, 7200 yds, desert parkland course that plays even shorter thanks to 2,700 feet of elevation. While players can bomb it off the tee (OTT) this week, I am not weighing SG: OTT performance highly in the model because there are so many ways to attack the course from the tee box. Seven of the last nine winners here finished in top-20 for Driving Accuracy for the week. But TPC Summerlin also has the 2nd longest Driving Distance on Tour and there is very little danger OTT. Because the course is so short, players don’t need to take driver off the tee on many holes. While the Bermuda rough can be unpredictable, it is not that penal. Nonetheless, because you need to score birdie after birdie here, playing from the fairway is clearly the biggest advantage OTT. Players have been very emphatic on that point when describing the course.
There are numerous golfers in this event who reside in the Las Vegas area and are ultra-familiar with this course. I do not believe familiarity with the course itself is a huge advantage this week, but I do believe their experience playing at this elevation presents a small edge for these players in that they should have more distance control with their club selection. For that reason, I have slightly bumped up certain locals in the model including Justin Suh, Taylor Montgomery, and Harry Hall among others.
The four main stats in the “Core 4” that I believe are the most important for this week include Strokes Gained (SG) on Approach, SG: Putting, Scoring (Birdie or Better %, Chances Gained inside 15 feet, Par 5 Scoring), and SG on “Easy Scoring” courses.
The most important area I’m targeting is approach play combined with the ability to get hot on these greens. The proximity to the hole data tells us that this is one of the few areas where this course is tougher than average. And that’s because they tend to place the pins into very tight areas and corners of the greens. So approach play is the only one of the metrics where players strong in that area can gain separation on the field. 34% of approaches are from 100-150 yards. We definitely want to target players good with their wedges from that range.
Looking at past winners, there are so many good putters on the list. Quite honestly, if you can keep your ball in the fairway, the 11 par-4s turn into a wedge-fest putting contest. Whoever can get those approach shots closest to the pin and sink the most putts will be raising the trophy on Sunday. And of course, players almost need to birdie every single par-5 with the occasional eagle mixed in as well.
Finally, with the need to score really low, I created an “SG: Easy Scoring” course metric that looks back at performance on other high-scoring tracks. You would be surprised at how many elite players perform below their baseline in these types of events. Players like Lucas Herbert and Beau Hossler have historically struggled on these “easy” courses. On the other hand, players like Tom Hoge and J.T. Poston have performed well above their baseline in these situations, and I am heavily invested in them as either an outright selection or high finishing position.
Most Important Stats For Success at TPC Summerlin
*In order of importance
- Birdie or Better %
- SG: Putting (Bentgrass)
- SG: APP
- SG: Easy Scoring Courses
- SG: Par 4: 400-450
- Good Drive %
- Proximity: 100-150
- Par 5 Scoring
- SG: ARG (Bermuda)
- Course History – TPC Summerlin
Shriners Children’s Open – Final Model
In each preview article and on Discord, I present my final model, which gives a detailed player ranking of the most important stats and splits for the week. My modeling is built around the PGA’s Strokes Gained data, which is divided into SG: Off the Tee (OTT), SG: Approach (APP), SG: Around the Green (ARG), and SG: Putting (P). Learn more about Strokes Gained and why it can be so useful in analyzing the past and predicting future performance. Many of the individual splits will be posted on my Twitter feed, with the final model exclusively published here for subscribers.
Outright Betting Selections
*Lines accurate at the time of publication.
Adam Schenk +3400
Still searching for his first PGA Tour victory, Schenk’s metrics, combined with both his long and short-term form have him on top of the model this week. He has six top-10 finishes over his last 11 starts and has gained at least four shots on approach in five of them. His results at TPC Summerlin have been just as stellar with five top-27s including a 12th last year and a 3rd-place finish in 2021.
(0.70u) BetRivers
Tom Hoge +4000 (currently +3500)
Back to the Hoge well we go as he is one of the true “boom or bust” players in this field. Hoge enters the week in excellent form coming off a 13th-place finish at the Sanderson Farms last week where he gained 5.7 strokes on approach. He loves this course as evidenced by his three top-15 finishes over the last five years, including a 4th last year. Among the best wedge players in the world, his ability to spike with the putter in a birdie contest makes him one of the best “ceiling” plays this week.
(0.60u) BetMGM
Justin Suh +6000
It’s a home game this week for Suh who plays a majority of his practice golf at TPC Summerlin. With this event regularly turning into a birdie fest, there is almost nobody better on the greens than Suh who has gained strokes putting in 13 of his last 14 measured events and comes in as the highest-ranked putter in this field.
(0.43u) FanDuel
Sam Ryder +9000 (currently +7500)
Ryder enters this week as perhaps the hottest iron player in the world. Over his last six measured events, he has gained in amazing 28.2 strokes on approach. With the combination of wedge play and putting being so vital this week, there are few better than Ryder who is also known as one of the more consistent putters on Tour. He has two top-15 finishes in his last five starts, and had a third-place finish here at TPC Summerlin back in 2018.
(0.40u) FanDuel
Other Outright Selections
Davis Thompson +6000 (0.40u) – BetRivers (currently +5000)
S.H. Kim +7000 (0.34u) – FanDuel
Matthew NeSmith +9000 (0.30u) – BetRivers
Taylor Montgomery +9000 (0.26u) – BetRivers
Joel Dahmen +20000 (0.12u) – FanDuel
Finishing Position Picks
Top 20 – all BetRivers
- Cameron Davis +120 (1u)
- J.T. Poston +138 (1u)
- Adam Schenk +140 (1u)
- Eric Cole +165 (1u)
Top 30
- Adam Hadwin -105 (1u) – BetRivers
- Rasmus Hojgaard +105 (1u) – FanDuel
- Mark Hubbard +115 (1u) – FanDuel
- Aaron Rai +115 (1u) – FanDuel
- Matthew NeSmith +140 (1u) – BetRivers
Top 40 – all BetMGM
- Sam Ryder -110 (1.1u)
- Chesson Hadley +110 (1.1u)
- Martin Laird +120 (1u)
- Harry Hall +150 (1u)
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Photo by Sam Greenwood/Getty Images