24 of the world’s best players will tee it up this week at Italy’s Marco Simone Golf and Country Club for the 44th playing of the Ryder Cup. Named after the British businessman Samuel Ryder, who donated the first trophy after the initial tournament in 1927, the Ryder Cup has become one of the world’s greatest sporting events. Every two years, the best players from Europe and the United States go head-to-head in match play format with the venue alternating between courses in the United States and Europe.
With Europe being the host country for this year’s event, Italy was surprisingly selected in December 2015 ahead of Austria, Germany and Spain. The Italians pitched luxurious Marco Simone Golf & Country Club and its perch overlooking Rome and the dome at St. Peter’s Basilica as the host course. Located in Guidonia, just 10 miles outside of Rome, it will be the first Italian golf club, and only the third in continental Europe to host the event.
The course was redesigned in 2018 with the intention of transforming it into a course worthy of championship match play golf with risk/reward options on many holes. It was also rerouted to maximize the natural rolling countryside terrain. Spectators will have unrivalled vantage points of the action as there are numerous high points to view multiple holes at once.
As part of the DP World Tour schedule, three Italian Opens have been played here over the past three years and have given observers an insight into what is in store for the participants this week. From its strenuous elevation changes and rolling hills to its narrow fairways, thick rough, and elevated tiered greens, Marco Simone will provide an intriguing test.
In the all-time standings, Team USA leads the series 27-14 with two ties. At the last Ryder Cup in 2021 held at Whistling Straits in Wisconsin, Team USA defeated Team Europe 19-9 to clinch the largest margin of victory in the event’s modern history.
The Teams
The qualifying criteria for each team are different. For the U.S. a points system has been in place since the 2019 season with players collecting points up until the completion of the 2022 BMW Championship. The top six players on the points list secured spots on the U.S. team with the remaining six players selected by Captain Zach Johnson following the completion of the 2023 PGA TOUR season.
Qualification for Team Europe began at the 2022 BMW PGA Championship, the fourth Rolex Series event of the 2022 season. It concluded on September 3, 2023, when the six players who qualified automatically were confirmed. These six automatic qualifiers will comprise the three leading players on the European Points List followed by the three leading players on the World Points List. European Captain Luke Donald will then select a further six Captain’s Picks to complete his 12-man team to face the United States.
U.S. Roster: Scottie Scheffler, Xander Schauffele, Patrick Cantlay, Brian Harman, Wyndham Clark, Max Homa, Brooks Koepka, Justin Thomas, Jordan Spieth, Collin Morikawa, Rickie Fowler and Sam Burns.
European Roster: Rory McIlroy, Jon Rahm, Robert MacIntyre, Viktor Hovland, Tyrrell Hatton, Matt Fitzpatrick, Tommy Fleetwood, Sepp Straka, Justin Rose, Shane Lowry, Nicolai Hojgaard, and Ludvig Aberg.
Ryder Cup Format and Scoring
The Ryder Cup uses a match play format instead of the typical stroke play format that is used each week on the PGA Tour. Match play is a form of competition where a player (or players) plays directly against an opponent (or opponents) in a head-to-head match. You win a hole by completing it in the fewest number of strokes, and you win a match when you are winning by more holes than remain to be played. Since 1979, the Ryder Cup has consisted of two days of four-ball and foursome matches along with one day of singles matches.
FOUR-BALL
Each member of a two-man team plays his own ball, so four balls are in play on every hole. Each team counts the lowest of its two scores on each hole, and the team whose player has the lowest score wins the hole. If the low scores are tied, the hole is halved.
FOURSOMES
Each two-man team plays one ball per hole with the players taking turns until each hole is complete. Players alternate hitting tee shots, with one leading off on odd-numbered holes, and the other hitting first on even-numbered holes. The team with the low score on each hole wins that hole. If their scores are tied, the hole is halved.
SINGLES
Each match features one player from each team. The player with the lower score on each hole wins that hole. If their scores are tied, the hole is halved. Players can concede a hole to their opponent if they have no chance of halving the hole.
Scoring: Each match is worth one point, with matches ending in a tie worth ½ point to each side. There are no extra holes in Ryder Cup matches. The first team to reach 14 ½ points wins the Ryder Cup. If the matches end in a 14-14 tie, the team holding the Ryder Cup (the United States) retains it.
Tale of the Tape
Here is a look at how the teams stack up from a rank, form, and match play history perspective. Players are shown with their Official World Golf Ranking. Form is measured using DataGolf’s adjusted strokes gained per round over the last 12 months. Three data points are used for match play history. The first is past overall Ryder Cup record. The second is career singles record in match play competition, which, along with the Ryder Cup, also includes the Dell Match Play event and the Presidents Cup. Finally, each player’s career team record in both foursomes and four-ball competitions in those same events is also included.
Betting Selections
*Check the Discord for any additional selections before the events starts on Friday morning
Let’s start with the overall winner. While the U.S. has dramatically shifted from heavy favorites a few months ago (-150 to win) to actual underdogs this week (+110 to win), nothing really has changed between July and now to precipitate this reversal. I was prepared to bet on the U.S. team with odds has long as -120. Thus I am taking…
United States To Win, +110 (5u) BetMGM
Winning Margin – United States by 1-3 Points +325 (1u) – Caesars
As for my reasoning in siding with the U.S. team…
- As this chart above shows, the U.S. team has more experience, and more overall talent and depth which is evidenced by their better Strokes Gained form over the past year – top to bottom – by a good margin
- Because of their depth at the bottom, the U.S. should have a solid edge in Singles matches on Sunday. I would take anyone on the U.S. roster to easily win over Nicolai Hojgaard, Sepp Straka, Robert MacIntryre and Ludvig Aberg. At worst that’s a U.S. lock for three points versus those European rookies on Sunday.
- The U.S. has better cohesion and chemistry with their groupings. Xander Schauffele and Patrick Cantlay are elite all-around players with no weaknesses who have an undeniable bond with each other on the course. Justin Thomas and Jordan Spieth have been close to unbeatable in team play (though not always paired together) with a combined 34-6-8 record. The Max Homa/Collin Morikawa pairing complement each other well. Brian Harman can play with anyone. Scottie Scheffler is still the best overall player in the world and should be better with Sam Burns this time around. If the U.S. leadership can find the right pairing for Brooks Koepka that could also be a huge force. Europe has very little experience in this format with each other.
- The tide shifted at Whistling Straits in 2021 where the U.S. team gave Europe the worst defeat they have ever faced.
- European match play stalwarts who were feared like Sergio Garcia and Ian Poulter aren’t walking through that door.
- The course is so quirky with nine blind shots and with such strenuous rolling terrain that it doesn’t favor either side. Also, as far as previous European edges with narrow fairways and thick rough off the tee, the U.S. has caught up to Europe in driving accuracy. Thus, I don’t see any course edge at all other than the home crowd on Europe’s side. This course doesn’t even come close to comparing to the advantage Europe had at Le Golf National in France back in 2018.
Top Overall Points Scorer – Xander Schauffele +1500 (1u) – Caesars
Top U.S. Points Scorer – Patrick Cantlay +625 (1u) – Caesars
Top U.S. Points Scorer – Justin Thomas +1200 (0.5u) – BetMGM
It’s important to note that any single golfer could be involved in up to five matches in the five different sessions. The only requirement is that every golfer plays in the Sunday singles. This means that some golfers will play one or two sessions, while a few may actually play all five sessions. The only matchups and pairings that we will know before lock will be for the Friday AM session, which leaves us with a lot of guesswork.
With Schauffele and Cantlay being the best American pairing and almost guaranteed to play together in at least three of the team matches on Friday and Saturday, I like each to be in a position to be either the top overall points scorer, or the top U.S. points scorer. Schauffele especially with his 18-8-4 career match play record has great value at +1500 for top overall scorer. I also think Justin Thomas has strong value at +1200 for top U.S. points scorer as he tends to thrive in this team setting.
DraftKings Strategy and Picks
We have a captain roster spot on DraftKings (1.5x the salary and 1.5x the fantasy production), which adds another layer of strategy to roster construction. It is imperative to select a captain that will as many match opportunities as possible. Finding a low-priced captain who will play at least three matches is one of the keys to unlocking higher upside lineups that can fit more of the elite options. With that in mind, my favorite captain plays at the moment are Justin Thomas ($10.2K), Max Homa ($11.4K) and Xander Schauffele ($12.3K). I believe each is guaranteed for at least three matches and possibly four. I love all three in the regular roster position as well. There is much more value at captain on the American side as the European stalwarts of McIlroy, Rahm, and Hovland are three of the five highest-priced options.
Obviously, the paramount goal this week is to maximize the number of matches played from golfers in your lineup. With only 24 players to choose from, and only a handful that will play four or more matches, the key to success will be to predict which value players to include in your player pool. There are some pairings that we can expect to stick together such as Cantlay/Schauffele, but a bad round or two could lead the captains to switch it up.
Like stacking in football (as listed in the Scoring Notes above), it is also important to remember that teammates in matches get the same number of DraftKings points. There are two different options related to capitalizing on this structure. Taking both partners (for example, Cantlay and Schauffele) will give you double the points based on their results. The second option is to simply take the cheaper partner. In this example, Schauffele is $800 cheaper than Cantlay. Considering both have a high likelihood of playing most matches together, you can benefit with the same amount points for one of them, and can save salary at the same time.
The good news is that the AM group of Friday foursomes will be announced before lineup lock on Thursday. From all indications based on practice groupings from the last two days, Brooks Koepka and Scottie Scheffler will be paired together Friday morning. If that pair does well together, it could stick for at least one or two more of the three team rounds that follow. Below are the practice pairings from the past two days at Marco Simone.
Hovland/Rahm/Straka/Fleetwood
Hatton/Aberg/MacIntyre/Lowry
McIlroy/Fitzpatrick/Rose/Hojgaard
Spieth/Thomas/Morikawa/Burns
Clark/Homa/Harman/Fowler
Scheffler/Koepka/Cantlay/Schauffele
These pairings have played together two days in a row:
Hovland/Rahm
Straka/Fleetwood
Hatton/Aberg
Rose/Hojgaard
Homa/Harman/Fowler
Spieth/Thomas
Cantlay/Schauffele
Scheffler/Koepka
DraftKings Core Selections
Xander Schauffele – $12.3K captain, $8.2K regular
Schauffele should be out there for four matches with an outside chance that he plays in all five. His partnership with Patrick Cantlay is without a doubt the firmest of any pairing on either side. He has a 3-1 Ryder Cup record, and in match play overall has an impeccable 18-7-4 career mark. His game is without any weaknesses which gives him quite the high floor. In the same vein, his ability to excel in every area, combined with the Cantlay pairing, also gives him enormous upside.
Max Homa – $11.4K captain, $7.6K regular
Though Homa is a Ryder Cup rookie, at 32 years old and as a Presidents Cup veteran, he has the consistency and presence of a golfer who is ready to make an impact on a grand stage. Whether paired with Collin Morikawa or a different player, like Schauffele, he has the all-around game and bulldog personality to have success in any type of match-play competition. He has also had some of his best weeks on difficult courses with thick rough similar to what he will face at Marco Simone this week.
Justin Thomas – $10.2K captain, $6.8K regular
Though a controversial selection and perhaps the last wildcard selected for the American team, I firmly agree that Thomas is the heart and soul of this team. Furthermore, I don’t think he was chosen to play two matches and spend most of his time as a cheerleader. I firmly expect him to play at least three matches and possibly four. He thrives in match-play competition as evidenced by his stellar 6-2-1 Ryder Cup record and 25-17-4 career record. His game looked better at the Fortinet Championship where he finished in the top 10.
Viktor Hovland – $13.2K captain, $8.8K regular
Perhaps no player enters the Ryder Cup with more momentum and firepower than Hovland. He has three wins in the past five months which includes a fifth-place finish at last week’s BMW PGA Championship and wins at the BMW Championship and Tour Championship. Having shored up his erratic short game, he no longer has any weaknesses on the course. He struggled at Whistling Straits going 0-3-2, but possesses massive upside and should be a lock to play four matches.
Justin Rose – $9.0K captain, $6.0K regular
The oldest player on either side, the Ryder Cup veteran has a career 13-8-2 record in this event. He is an excellent player in foursomes going 7-2-1 and should be in one of the the first groups on Friday, perhaps paired with Rory McIlroy. His form this year has been on the upswing with 11 top 25s in his last 15 events.
Brian Harman – $6.9K captain, $4.6K regular
With Sam Burns most likely being the highest-owned player in this range, I believe Harman has the best potential to surprise. His playing style and fierce Ian Poulter-esque personality make him a natural fit for match-play competition. He is one of the best putters in the tournament and is an accurate fairway finder. There is also a good deal of chatter that he could be paired with Homa on Friday morning. Coming off his major championship at The Open, also on European soil, he’ll be brimming with confidence.