With the return of football, combined with weak strength of fields, golf is often forgotten this time of year. But folks shouldn’t sleep on the fall Swing season here on the PGA Tour. In a few weeks, there will be an influx of new young talent in the form of Korn Ferry Tour graduates and the same green money to be made if you put the time into researching and educating yourself on the players and courses.
This first event in Napa, California features four players above $10K. Max Homa is the best player in this field by leaps and bounds. I don’t see him using this tournament as a warm-up for the Ryder Cup either. He goes all out and plays to win. That is just how he is wired. Even though he is coming in at around 30% ownership, I will find a way to be at least near the field average. I am fading both Justin Thomas and Stephan Jaeger. Even with a weak field, Thomas is overpriced. I also believe he will be feeling some pressure to succeed in order to make Zach Johnson’s Ryder Cup selection appear justified. As for the fade of Jaeger, I love the four players directly below him much more – Cameron Davis, Sahith Theegala, Eric Cole, Brendon Todd – and he has not had much success here at Silverado with two missed cuts and a 43rd in his last three trips here. The rest of my plays including my main core are listed below
With a PGA event being held here at the Silverado Resort & Spa for the past nine consecutive years, we have plenty of course history and data from which to analyze. All types of drivers are welcome here, both bombers and shorter hitters. With a Fairway Accuracy rate of only 51%, everyone will miss fairways. Driving Distance is one my key stats in the “Core 4” and is definitely a bonus on this course as golfers can pick their line off the tee and bomb away if they choose. The list of recent winners here, including Stewart Cink, Cameron Champ, Kevin Tway, Brendan Steele, and Max Homa (twice) would suggest that distance off the tee leads to success. Increased distance leads to shorter irons and wedges into firm greens.
Silverado also has the second-fewest combined hazards when looking at water and bunkers. Bombers who are wildly inconsistent at times off the tee like Sahith Theegala, Taylor Pendrith, and Cameron Davis will not be penalized for wayward drives. For that reason, a good number of bomber-types will be in my player pool.
While there have been numerous winners here at Silverado who have not been historically good putters, these greens are among the more challenging on Tour. And because of this fact, my SG: Putting sub-model for this event is also par of the weekly “Core 4”. Golfers who are consistent from 5-15 feet and that have past putting success on Poa annua should also be on your radar this week. Players like Max Homa (the best Poa putter in the field) and Brendon Todd are perfect examples.
Instead of going with the full SG: Approach model in the “Core 4” this week, I have narrowed it down to Proximity from the important range of 75-150 yards. One of the main reasons for the GIR% being so high, even from the rough, is that 44% of approach shots come from this range. That is 11% above the Tour average of 33%. Some players who rank high in this proximity metric that I have already bet this week include Eric Cole, Todd, Akshay Bhatia, and Chez Reavie.
Finally, with an average winning score of 17-under over the past eight events, it is imperative to target players with high birdie rates who also generate the most chances inside 15 feet and who can also take advantage of the par-5s. The top five players in the field that rank highest in my Scoring sub-model include Davis, Cole, Bhatia, Reavie and Nate Lashley.
Most Important Stats For Success at Silverado (North)
*In order of importance
- SG: Approach
- Par 5 Scoring
- SG: ARG/Scrambling
- Driving Distance
- SG: Par 4: 400-450
- Birdie or Better %
- Proximity: 75-150
- Bogey Avoidance
- SG: Putting (Bermuda)
- Course History – Silverado (North)
Weather Forecast – Napa, California
Fortinet Championship – DraftKings Picks
Each week along with presenting my top choices for each of the categories below, I will include each of the pertinent stats for the specific event that comes directly from my model. Except for the “Core Plays,” which most weeks will typically be somewhat on the chalky side, I will include at least one player I am positive on who is forecast to be lower-owned and who will present a good pivot from some of the higher-owned options. In essence, the players you see below make up the majority of my player pool for this event.
Core Plays
Upper-Tier Plays
Mid-Range Plays
Value Plays
