[paid]
When there is a staggered start like in this event, I want a lineup full of chasers who either have a chance of overtaking those at the top or who have a great course history at East Lake. Motivation also comes into play. When Sunday rolls around and a guy is eight shots off the lead, will he fight to the end? Or will he just try to finish the round as quickly as possible and take his guaranteed money and go home.
I have a very tight core of players this week and am mostly playing single-entry, 3-entry max, and 20-max lineup contests instead of multi-entering. Obviously, with only 30 players to choose from, ownership will be high all the way around. I will combat this by going exorbitantly overweight on the players I like and by also leaving money on the table.
My core group of players this week is Xander Schauffele, Rory McIlroy and Tyrrell Hatton. Xander Schauffele has been the best player on this course by far over the last few years gaining an average of 1.73 strokes per round on the field (24 rounds). Behind him, Rory McIlroy is the clear number two at East Lake gaining an average of 1.36 strokes in 28 rounds since 2015. Hatton finished seventh overall in my model and yet is the eighth cheapest golfer. The rest of my player pool consists of Sungjae Im, Collin Morikawa, Russell Henley, Jordan Spieth, Sam Burns, Sepp Straka, Emiliano Grillo and Adam Schenk.
Also, keep in mind that starting strokes are baked into the salaries of each golfer, but in reality, they don’t matter a whole lot for scoring. The difference in finishing position points between 5th place and 30th is the same as four birdies, which is nothing over the course of 4 rounds.
The most important stats for this week that I weighted more heavily in the model were Total Driving, SG: Approach (emphasis on 200+), Good Drive %, and Par 4 Scoring. As simple as it sounds, if you don’t hit fairways at East Lake, you won’t hit many greens. Similar to prior events at Sedgefield and TPC Southwind, the Bermuda rough is extremely penal.
Read more about the course in my preview here.
Most Important Stats For Success at East Lake Golf Club
*In order of importance
- Total Driving
- Fairways Gained
- SG: Approach
- Proximity: 200+
- SG: Par 4
- Driving Distance
- Good Drive % (Bermuda Rough)
- Birdie or Better %
- SG: Putting (Bermuda)
- Bogey Avoidance
Weather Forecast – Atlanta, Georgia
